AHDB daily market commentary

Friday 23 April
  • The UK May-21 futures contract increased £2.70/t yesterday to £208.0/t tracking gains in US grain markets. The Nov-21 UK contract gained £6.30/t to be at £186.05/t. This morning prices for both contracts have eased back, with the Nov-21 contract at £184.75/t at 12pm GMT.
  • US wheat and maize futures contracts limited up yesterday (hit daily increase limits) amid dry and cold weather forecasts for much of the US crop belts. An estimated 78% of US spring wheat production and 17% of maize production is within an area in drought condition.
  • Weather concerns for the Brazilian safrinha crop also lent an arm of support with 45% - 50% of the crop in moisture stress. It is estimated 30% - 50% of the crop was planted after the ideal planting window.
  • The Russian agricultural consultancy firm IKAR lowered its forecast for the 2021/22 Russian wheat crop, now estimated at 79.5Mt from 81Mt. This is a result of an increase in winter kill levels.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - USDA FAS forecast UK wheat to stay net-importer for 2021/22

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Tuesday 27 April
  • New crop London feed wheat (Nov-21) gained £6.05/t yesterday, to close at £191.30/t.
  • Chicago maize futures nearby gained $9.84/t yesterday, to close at $267.91/t. Meanwhile, Chicago wheat futures (nearby) gained $10.74/t, to $271.69/t. Maize prices have been strengthening on weather concerns in Brazil and the US. South American forecasts continue to look dry.
  • Feed manufacturers in China, South Korea and Vietnam are said to be switching from maize to wheat in animal rations. This year, these countries are forecast to have taken 26.4% of global maize imports. Though, now they are purchasing more wheat from the Black Sea and Australia as maize prices climb higher.
  • The AHDB Planting and Variety Survey provides the only pre-harvest planting view of grain and oilseed crops. Play a part in creating accurate data for your industry by completing the planting survey form. Five minutes of your time can provide huge value to our great industry.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Cold weather having an impact on EU and US grain crops

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Wednesday 28 April
  • Old crop UK wheat futures (May-21) closed yesterday at £208.85/t, down £1.15/t on Monday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-21) closed down from their contract high on Monday by £0.55/t, to close yesterday at £190.75/t.
  • Continued pockets of rain will alleviate dryness concerns domestically, but our new crop market will still be trading at import parity so global affairs will continue to directly drive our domestic values. The USDA 4%-point drop in U.S. winter wheat that was rated ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ reignited the focus on weather in the northern hemisphere.
  • Chicago maize futures (May-21) closed yesterday at $273.81/t, up $5.91/t on Monday’s close. Driving this gain at the moment is the lack of forecast rain in southern regions of Brazil. Their second maize crop is seen as critical to replenishing tight global stocks.
  • Another driver is the cold weather in the U.S. causing concerns over planting delays for their maize crop.
  • The AHDB Planting and Variety Survey provides the only pre-harvest planting view of grain and oilseed crops. Play a part in creating accurate data for your industry by completing the planting survey form. Five minutes of your time can provide huge value to our great industry.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Canadian canola area increases for 2021/22... but below expectations

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Thursday 29 April
  • Most UK wheat futures contract slipped lower yesterday. The May-21 contract lost £1.85/t to £207.00/t, while the Nov-21 price fell by £0.75/t to £190.00/t and Nov-22 fell £2.00/t to £170.00/t. The May-21 contract is now in its notice period ahead of its last trading day on 21 May, so these prices may also be subject to technical influences.
  • Global grain and oilseed prices fluctuated widely during trading yesterday, but mostly closed lower. Speculative traders reportedly booked profits amid concerns that current prices could be starting to cap demand. Warmer weather in the US is also likely supporting spring crop planting progress, though conditions remain dry.
  • But, there’s also still concern about the impact of hot, dry weather on Safrinha maize crops in Brazil where crops are pollinating. Read about why this crop is so significant to global grain supplies here.
  • Insight into how much wheat, barley, oats and rapeseed have been planted in the UK can help you make grain marketing decisions. The AHDB Planting and Variety Survey provides the only pre-harvest view of crop areas. Can you spare five minutes to complete the planting survey form and help the whole industry get accurate data?
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - The importance of US crop delays

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Friday 30 April
  • European and domestic wheat prices fell yesterday amid a degree of profit taking. A bumper Romanian wheat production forecast also lent pressure, as the country is a key wheat exporter in the Black Sea region. The UK May-21 contract lost £2.25/t to £204.75/t, though the Nov-21 price fell further, by £5.75/t, to £184.25/t. Similarly, the May-22 price fell £5.60/t to £186.60/t.
  • The EU Commission lowered its 2021/22 wheat production forecast for the EU-27 to 124.8Mt from an initial estimate of 126.7Mt last month. As a result, ending wheat stocks for the 2021/22 season are lowered to 11.4Mt from 12.9Mt. Ending wheat stocks for this season are estimated at 9.9Mt, up from 9.5Mt owing to increased imports.
  • Brent crude oil prices rose to six-week highs yesterday, supported by strong US economic data and demand recovery expectations. This was partly offset by concerns of Covid-19 infection rates in India. Brent crude oil futures (nearby) closed at $68.56/bbl yesterday, up 3.7% from Friday.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - High new-crop UK wheat prices, what can be done?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Wednesday 5 May
  • London (May-21) wheat futures gained £1.00/t from Friday’s close, closing last night at £205.50/t. New crop (Nov-21) also gained, although just £0.25/t to close at £184.00/t.
  • Chicago maize futures have reached their highest level since March 2013. This is on the back of continuing supply concerns for Brazil’s second maize crop due to ongoing drought.
  • In April, Brazil exported a record 17.38Mt. AgRural estimates that this will drop back to 14-15Mt during May, as Chinese purchasing has slowed.
  • Argentina’s 2021/22 wheat crop is expected to reach 19Mt, this would be equal to the record set in 2018/19.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - The IGC increases total grains production for 2020/21 but stocks remain tight.

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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Thursday 6 May
  • London (Nov-21) wheat futures gained £4.20/t from Tuesday’s close, closing at £187.95/t yesterday. Similarly UK May-22 futures gained £4.90/t to £191.00/t over the same period. UK Nov-22 futures gained slightly less to be at £170.10/t, up £3.60/t.
  • The FAO global food price index rose for its 11th straight month to April to 120.9. This is a seven year high and a 30.7% increase from April 2020. This is the fastest rise in food inflation levels since 2011.
  • Today, the Bank of England has voted to leave UK interest rates unchanged at a current record low of 0.1%.
  • We have published the latest monthly usage figures for GB animal feed production and GB human and industrial (H&I) consumption for March 2021. Production of dairy cow feed blends increased 14.5% as grass growth figures struggled amid a lack of rainfall.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Global speculative interest in commodities: a product of growth?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Friday 7 May
  • UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) closed yesterday at a contract high of £192.00/t, a gain of £4.05/t on the previous close. The move in the UK market followed wider moves across Chicago and Paris wheat futures (Dec-21).
  • Chicago maize futures continue to take the lead for grain markets, gaining 14.5% Thursday-Thursday. Alongside the speculative support for prices, concerns continue for the condition of the Safrinha maize crop in Brazil.
  • French crop condition rating took another hit in the week to 3 May. For soft wheat, 79% of the crop is now rated “good” or “very good” down 2 percentage points (pp) on the week. The proportion of winter and spring barley crop rated “good” or “very good” stand at 77% (down 1pp) and 82% (unchanged), respectively.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Global grains continue to firm on Brazil crop concern

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Tuesday 11 May
  • UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) fell back once more yesterday, closing at £185.50/t, a fall of £6.50/t. A similar decline was seen for Paris milling wheat futures, moving €7.75/t lower, to €222.00/t.
  • Falls in UK futures prices were seen throughout the day, and were cemented by good planting progress in the US.
  • US maize planting continued ahead of average according to the USDA. In the week ending 9 May, 67% of the maize crop was planted, ahead of the five year average of 52%. Emergence is behind last year, but 1 percentage point ahead of the five year average, at 20%.
  • Planting of soyabeans and spring wheat continues well ahead of average. Winter wheat conditions improved, 49% of the crop is now rated “good” or “excellent”.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - How are new-new crop futures shaping up?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Wednesday 12 May
  • UK feed wheat futures for Nov-21 gained £1.10/t yesterday, to close at £186.60/t, after falls on Monday.
  • Chicago maize for Jul-21 also climbed yesterday, up $4.13/t to close at $284.35/t. Gains have been made on South American supply continuing to look tight ahead of both Conab’s Brazilian supply estimates and the USDA’s world supply and demand estimates (WASDE), due today.
  • Average trade estimates for Brazil’s maize crop for 2020/21 in a pre-WASDE poll by Refinitiv, stand at 103.5Mt, down from April’s forecast of 109Mt. The low end of estimates see production falling to 100Mt or below, reducing the exportable surplus.
  • Chinese 2021/22 maize plantings are up 3.4% to 42.67Mha according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. This would peg production up 4.3% to 271.81Mt, higher than the IGC supply forecast and initial estimates, though still lower than demand projections.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Delivered rapeseed prices at record levels, can they go higher?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Thursday 13 May
  • New crop UK wheat futures (Nov-21) closed yesterday at £187.00/t, gaining £0.40/t on Tuesday’s close. As at 17.15, UK feed wheat (Nov-21) was £181.60/t, down £5.40/t.
  • Conab revised down the second Brazilian maize crop to 79.8Mt, from 82.6Mt estimated in its April report. Drought across key growing regions has hindered yields.
  • Defra on-farm stocks were released this morning. For England and Wales 2,657Kt of wheat was on-farm in February, decreasing by 41% on the same time last year.
  • Further to that AHDB released cereal stocks data this morning. Estimating that 1,187.6Kt (-7.4% year-on-year) of home-grown wheat and 270.5Kt (+40.4% year-on-year) of imported wheat was held by merchants, ports, and co-ops in the UK. More information can be found here.
  • UK trade data released yesterday showed the UK imported 176.6Kt of wheat and 183.4Kt of maize in March. This brings our total combined imports of maize and wheat to over 4.0Mt for the season to date.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Initial new-crop estimates from the USDA underpinning support for commodities?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Thursday 13 May
  • New crop UK wheat futures (Nov-21) closed yesterday at £187.00/t, gaining £0.40/t on Tuesday’s close. As at 17.15, UK feed wheat (Nov-21) was £181.60/t, down £5.40/t.
  • Conab revised down the second Brazilian maize crop to 79.8Mt, from 82.6Mt estimated in its April report. Drought across key growing regions has hindered yields.
  • Defra on-farm stocks were released this morning. For England and Wales 2,657Kt of wheat was on-farm in February, decreasing by 41% on the same time last year.
  • Further to that AHDB released cereal stocks data this morning. Estimating that 1,187.6Kt (-7.4% year-on-year) of home-grown wheat and 270.5Kt (+40.4% year-on-year) of imported wheat was held by merchants, ports, and co-ops in the UK. More information can be found here.
  • UK trade data released yesterday showed the UK imported 176.6Kt of wheat and 183.4Kt of maize in March. This brings our total combined imports of maize and wheat to over 4.0Mt for the season to date.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Initial new-crop estimates from the USDA underpinning support for commodities?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
Does the merchant' stocks include Alexander Inglis' stock?
 
Does the merchant' stocks include Alexander Inglis' stock?
We aren't able to disclose the make up of the survey sample, but the note below is included within the release. It is also worth noting that the stocks data presented is stocks held as at end-Feb.

Approximately 100 merchants, ports, co-ops and other storage facilities across the UK were surveyed for February 2021 cereal stock levels, with 86% of those submitting a return. To account for any non-responding companies, a stocks estimate is calculated using ratio-raising, in which the trend between the sample data and historic data is calculated. The response data is validated in multiple ways for accuracy and to identify any duplication. Validation methods include cross referencing assurance scheme numbers and store locations as well as comparing against previous returns.

Thanks
James
 
Friday 14 May
  • Grain markets fell sharply again yesterday led by the US markets (see below). Nov-21 UK feed wheat futures fell £6.75/t to £180.25/t, while the Nov-22 contract fell £1.40/t to £166.50/t.
  • Old crop UK feed wheat futures resisted the fall, but this is likely due to technical factors. The last trading day for May-21 is next Friday and it still has an unusually high 1,485 open contracts, which need to be tendered against or settled by then.
  • Paris rapeseed prices also fell yesterday, under pressure from falling soyabean prices. The Nov-21 contract fell €19.50/t from Wednesday’s new contract to close at €522.75/t (£449.89/t). Nov-22 futures fell by €3.00/t to €439.50/t (£378.25/t).
  • Also adding pressure to the US prices is a problem with a bridge on the Mississippi River, which has halted water traffic (Refintiv). This route is crucial for grain and oilseeds moving for export from the US Gulf and could delay shipments.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Markets drop on post-USDA profit-taking

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Tuesday 18 May
  • Nov-21 UK feed wheat futures fell £4.45/t yesterday to £178.55/t due to rain in key global growing areas (see below) and stronger sterling. This is the lowest price since 20 April.
  • Spot ex-farm feed barley in England & Wales averaged £177.00/t in the week ending 13 May. This is £3.30/t more than the previous week as feed barley is reportedly getting harder to source. The latest price is also just £22.70/t below the average for feed wheat, the smallest discount since March 2020.
  • In April, members of the US National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed 7% fewer soyabeans than in April 2020. The market had expected a fall of 2%, according to a poll by Refinitiv. The weaker than expected demand contributed to a fall in Nov-21 Chicago soyabean prices.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - Sentiment and weather driving grain markets

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Wednesday 19 May
  • Nov-21 UK feed wheat futures made a small gain yesterday, closing at £178.75/t, up £0.20/t. As at 11.10 this morning, futures had continued to lose ground, down £2.25/t at 176.50/t.
  • Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-21) have shown a very similar pattern, closing up €0.25/t yesterday, before losing €1.50/t so far this morning.
  • Both sterling and the euro continue to make gains against the dollar. This is exacerbating declines in domestic grain pricing. The dollar has moved lower on weak economic data from the US and signals of support from the US Federal Reserve.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - Will grain prices have a second wind?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Thursday 20 May
  • Most grain and oilseed futures prices fell yesterday. Speculative traders reportedly sold due to technical trading signals. There were also some improved wheat crop prospects and spill-over pressure from financial markets.
  • The first day of a US crop tour reported good yield potential for wheat crops in Kansas. Meanwhile, Coceral raised its forecast for the EU-27 wheat crop.
  • UK feed wheat futures Nov-21 contract lost £2.75/t to £176.00/t. Nov-21 Paris rapeseed futures fell €13.75/t to €518.50/t, roughly £447.19/t (Refinitiv).
  • Private consultancy Agroconsult sharply cut its forecast for the Brazilian maize crop from 103.3Mt to 91.1Mt yesterday, due to the impact of recent dry weather. The latest USDA forecast is 102.0Mt.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - 2022 wheat crop prices historically high

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Friday 21 May
  • New crop UK wheat futures (Nov-21) closed yesterday at £177.50/t, gaining £1.50/t on Wednesday’s close.
  • Domestic markets followed the gains seen in Paris wheat futures (Dec-21) which rose €2.00/t to close yesterday at €212.25/t. Strength in the maize market offset pressure from favourable crop conditions for Northern Hemisphere wheat.
  • Chicago maize (Dec-21) closed yesterday at $217.32/t gaining $5.12/t on Wednesday’s close. Recent strong US export sales to China, combined with a forecast short-fall in the Brazilian safrinha crop provided support to the market.
  • The AHDB Planting and Variety Survey provides the only pre-harvest planting view of grain and oilseed crops. Play a part in creating accurate data for your industry by completing the planting survey form. Five minutes of your time can provide huge value to our great industry.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - Oilseed rape for harvest 2022 – how could you mitigate some risk?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Tuesday 25 May
  • New crop UK wheat futures (Nov-21) closed yesterday at £172.10/t, losing £3.15/t on Friday’s close. Yesterday marked the opening day for the May-23 UK wheat contract, which ended the day at £171.45/t.
  • An improving weather forecast for the US winter wheat crop saw global wheat prices decline yesterday as yield concerns for the crop are eased. A US crop tour forecast record yield potential for the Kansas winter wheat crop following beneficial rains. Kansas is a top wheat producing state for the US.
  • Egyptian state grain buyer (GASC) bought 240Kt of all Romanian origin wheat in its latest tender yesterday. The lowest purchase price was at $254.00/t (£179.31/t) excluding freight. Romania will be a key wheat exporter next season with a bumper wheat crop expected.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - UK barley; what's changed domestically?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Wednesday 26 May
  • New crop UK wheat futures (Nov-21) closed yesterday at £170.90/t down £1.20/t on Monday’s close.
  • Pressure on the global wheat market is due to a strong U.S. winter crop harvest outlook and spill over pressure from maize prices, where fair weather in the U.S. is outweighing Chinese demand and drought in Brazil.
  • Further to that, the latest European crop monitoring (MARS) report released yesterday raised its yield forecasts for most winter crops. Forecast soft wheat yields are expected to reach 5.91t/ha, up from 5.86t/ha projected in April’s report.
  • The AHDB Planting and Variety Survey provides the only pre-harvest planting view of grain and oilseed crops. Play a part in creating accurate data for your industry by completing the planting survey form. Five minutes of your time can provide huge value to our great industry.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - Domestic rapeseed; from net-export to net-import

Latest futures market prices available here

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Rejuvenating swards: Which option is best?

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Written by Brian McDonnell

Maintaining grass quality during mid-season grazing is important. Farmers can maintain quality by entering ideal grazing covers of 1,300 – 1,500kg DM/ha, and grazing down to a residual of 4cm every rotation.

If you are now in a situation where cows are not cleaning out paddocks as well as they should be, leading to the development of steamy grass within the sward, here are some options.

Common options for rejuvenating swards include:

  1. Take a silage cut, probably into bales, remove the material and start again with the aftermath...
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