AHDB daily market commentary

Friday 23 April
  • The UK May-21 futures contract increased £2.70/t yesterday to £208.0/t tracking gains in US grain markets. The Nov-21 UK contract gained £6.30/t to be at £186.05/t. This morning prices for both contracts have eased back, with the Nov-21 contract at £184.75/t at 12pm GMT.
  • US wheat and maize futures contracts limited up yesterday (hit daily increase limits) amid dry and cold weather forecasts for much of the US crop belts. An estimated 78% of US spring wheat production and 17% of maize production is within an area in drought condition.
  • Weather concerns for the Brazilian safrinha crop also lent an arm of support with 45% - 50% of the crop in moisture stress. It is estimated 30% - 50% of the crop was planted after the ideal planting window.
  • The Russian agricultural consultancy firm IKAR lowered its forecast for the 2021/22 Russian wheat crop, now estimated at 79.5Mt from 81Mt. This is a result of an increase in winter kill levels.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - USDA FAS forecast UK wheat to stay net-importer for 2021/22

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Tuesday 27 April
  • New crop London feed wheat (Nov-21) gained £6.05/t yesterday, to close at £191.30/t.
  • Chicago maize futures nearby gained $9.84/t yesterday, to close at $267.91/t. Meanwhile, Chicago wheat futures (nearby) gained $10.74/t, to $271.69/t. Maize prices have been strengthening on weather concerns in Brazil and the US. South American forecasts continue to look dry.
  • Feed manufacturers in China, South Korea and Vietnam are said to be switching from maize to wheat in animal rations. This year, these countries are forecast to have taken 26.4% of global maize imports. Though, now they are purchasing more wheat from the Black Sea and Australia as maize prices climb higher.
  • The AHDB Planting and Variety Survey provides the only pre-harvest planting view of grain and oilseed crops. Play a part in creating accurate data for your industry by completing the planting survey form. Five minutes of your time can provide huge value to our great industry.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Cold weather having an impact on EU and US grain crops

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Wednesday 28 April
  • Old crop UK wheat futures (May-21) closed yesterday at £208.85/t, down £1.15/t on Monday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-21) closed down from their contract high on Monday by £0.55/t, to close yesterday at £190.75/t.
  • Continued pockets of rain will alleviate dryness concerns domestically, but our new crop market will still be trading at import parity so global affairs will continue to directly drive our domestic values. The USDA 4%-point drop in U.S. winter wheat that was rated ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ reignited the focus on weather in the northern hemisphere.
  • Chicago maize futures (May-21) closed yesterday at $273.81/t, up $5.91/t on Monday’s close. Driving this gain at the moment is the lack of forecast rain in southern regions of Brazil. Their second maize crop is seen as critical to replenishing tight global stocks.
  • Another driver is the cold weather in the U.S. causing concerns over planting delays for their maize crop.
  • The AHDB Planting and Variety Survey provides the only pre-harvest planting view of grain and oilseed crops. Play a part in creating accurate data for your industry by completing the planting survey form. Five minutes of your time can provide huge value to our great industry.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Canadian canola area increases for 2021/22... but below expectations

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Thursday 29 April
  • Most UK wheat futures contract slipped lower yesterday. The May-21 contract lost £1.85/t to £207.00/t, while the Nov-21 price fell by £0.75/t to £190.00/t and Nov-22 fell £2.00/t to £170.00/t. The May-21 contract is now in its notice period ahead of its last trading day on 21 May, so these prices may also be subject to technical influences.
  • Global grain and oilseed prices fluctuated widely during trading yesterday, but mostly closed lower. Speculative traders reportedly booked profits amid concerns that current prices could be starting to cap demand. Warmer weather in the US is also likely supporting spring crop planting progress, though conditions remain dry.
  • But, there’s also still concern about the impact of hot, dry weather on Safrinha maize crops in Brazil where crops are pollinating. Read about why this crop is so significant to global grain supplies here.
  • Insight into how much wheat, barley, oats and rapeseed have been planted in the UK can help you make grain marketing decisions. The AHDB Planting and Variety Survey provides the only pre-harvest view of crop areas. Can you spare five minutes to complete the planting survey form and help the whole industry get accurate data?
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - The importance of US crop delays

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Friday 30 April
  • European and domestic wheat prices fell yesterday amid a degree of profit taking. A bumper Romanian wheat production forecast also lent pressure, as the country is a key wheat exporter in the Black Sea region. The UK May-21 contract lost £2.25/t to £204.75/t, though the Nov-21 price fell further, by £5.75/t, to £184.25/t. Similarly, the May-22 price fell £5.60/t to £186.60/t.
  • The EU Commission lowered its 2021/22 wheat production forecast for the EU-27 to 124.8Mt from an initial estimate of 126.7Mt last month. As a result, ending wheat stocks for the 2021/22 season are lowered to 11.4Mt from 12.9Mt. Ending wheat stocks for this season are estimated at 9.9Mt, up from 9.5Mt owing to increased imports.
  • Brent crude oil prices rose to six-week highs yesterday, supported by strong US economic data and demand recovery expectations. This was partly offset by concerns of Covid-19 infection rates in India. Brent crude oil futures (nearby) closed at $68.56/bbl yesterday, up 3.7% from Friday.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - High new-crop UK wheat prices, what can be done?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Wednesday 5 May
  • London (May-21) wheat futures gained £1.00/t from Friday’s close, closing last night at £205.50/t. New crop (Nov-21) also gained, although just £0.25/t to close at £184.00/t.
  • Chicago maize futures have reached their highest level since March 2013. This is on the back of continuing supply concerns for Brazil’s second maize crop due to ongoing drought.
  • In April, Brazil exported a record 17.38Mt. AgRural estimates that this will drop back to 14-15Mt during May, as Chinese purchasing has slowed.
  • Argentina’s 2021/22 wheat crop is expected to reach 19Mt, this would be equal to the record set in 2018/19.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - The IGC increases total grains production for 2020/21 but stocks remain tight.

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Thursday 6 May
  • London (Nov-21) wheat futures gained £4.20/t from Tuesday’s close, closing at £187.95/t yesterday. Similarly UK May-22 futures gained £4.90/t to £191.00/t over the same period. UK Nov-22 futures gained slightly less to be at £170.10/t, up £3.60/t.
  • The FAO global food price index rose for its 11th straight month to April to 120.9. This is a seven year high and a 30.7% increase from April 2020. This is the fastest rise in food inflation levels since 2011.
  • Today, the Bank of England has voted to leave UK interest rates unchanged at a current record low of 0.1%.
  • We have published the latest monthly usage figures for GB animal feed production and GB human and industrial (H&I) consumption for March 2021. Production of dairy cow feed blends increased 14.5% as grass growth figures struggled amid a lack of rainfall.
Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Global speculative interest in commodities: a product of growth?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

Click here to receive AHDB market intelligence content straight to your inbox - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 

Starane Hi-Load HL has been granted a new EAMU for BLW control in Millet

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Starane Hi-Load HL has been granted a new EAMU for BLW control in Millet

"With the loss of Bromoxynil another BLW herbicide was needed" says Premium Crops Company Agronomist, Hannah Foxall,"Having fluroxypyr as a Post-Emergence option will enhance our control of; cleavers, knotgrass, black nightshade, fumitory, chickweed and black bindweed in the millet crop"

As with all EAMUs any restrictions guidance stated on the products labels must be adhered to and the approval document can be found by clicking...
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