AHDB daily market commentary

Thursday 27 May
  • UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) continued their losing run yesterday, dropping another £0.40/t, to close at £170.50/t.
  • Chicago maize futures (Dec-21) have paused on their recent fall, gaining both yesterday and in early trading today. Demand from China is still a major watch point for maize markets.
  • The market has seemingly gone quiet of any fresh weather stories, which had been the key driver in recent weeks. That said, conditions remain dry in South America, and concerns over maize crop size in Brazil are far from over.
  • The latest UK cereal balance sheets have been published this morning, detailing estimates as at 1 May 2021.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - UK wheat to remain tight in 2021/22

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Friday 28 May
  • Following a rise in global grain prices, Nov-21 UK feed wheat futures gained £4.50/t yesterday to £175.00/t. Global prices rose due to more dry weather in US spring wheat areas, buying by speculative traders, and confirmation of big US maize export sales.
  • The USDA confirmed that China bought 5.8Mt of US maize last week in its weekly export sales report. The market had also expected that some large cancellations of old crop cargos, but this wasn’t the case.
  • French wheat and barley crops are in better condition than last week (FranceAgriMer). For example, on 24 May 80% of soft wheat was rated good or very good, up from 79% the week before. The improvement follows rain in May.
  • Paris Nov-21 rapeseed futures also rose €16.75/t yesterday to €512.75/t following a rise in soyabean and canola prices. This equates to roughly £440/t.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - UK oat stocks to rise as exports drop off

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Wednesday 02 June
  • UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) gained £5.00/t yesterday, to close at £179.00/t. The move higher echoed gains in wider grain markets, with support seen for Paris and Chicago wheat.
  • Estimates of Brazilian maize production have seen further cuts, over the past couple of days (read more below). Agrural, a Brazilian agribusiness consultancy, shaved 5Mt off its estimate of Safrinha production, pegging output for the second crop at 60Mt.
  • Weather concerns for Northern Hemisphere crop production have come to the fore again. With dryness in the US northern plains and Canadian prairies key watch points.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - Prices higher despite positive US maize conditions

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Thursday 03 June
  • London feed wheat futures (Nov-21) fell £2.40/t yesterday, to close at £176.60/t. This fall follows similar falls globally, on the Paris wheat and Chicago wheat and maize markets.
  • Following gains of $10.47/t on Tuesday, Chicago Nov-21 wheat prices were the highest since 14 May. These gains were due to dry US weather in spring wheat areas and further Brazilian maize crop cuts. Yesterday, a mixture of possible demand rationing in the US and positive crop condition scores for US maize, dampened wheat prices marginally.
  • Chicago soyabean futures (Nov-21) gained $6.15/t yesterday to close at $519.41/t: the highest point in three weeks. Gains were made on dry US and South American weather. Brazil’s water crisis is reducing river levels and making soyabean exports harder.
  • Vegetable oil prices found strength from higher biofuel demand. Plus, India is said to be considering reducing its import tax due to record cooking oil prices (Refinitiv).
Today's Grain market daily is now published - Budgeting, why now and how can this benefit us?

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Friday 04 June
  • New crop UK wheat futures (Nov-21) closed yesterday at £176.50/t, down £0.10/t on Wednesday’s close.
  • The Chicago maize (Dec-21) and wheat (Dec-21) market was slightly pressured yesterday even though the global market still remains cautious over weather prospects in the U.S. and Brazil crops in a time of tightening global availability.
  • The continental market encapsulated supported as the euro weakened against both the dollar and sterling.
  • Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-21) gained €0.50/t yesterday to close at €214.50/t. Forex closed yesterday at £1 = €1.1629.
  • Russia’s Agriculture ministry expects the country’s 2021 wheat crop at 81Mt, unchanged from May’s estimates.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - Wet and cold May, plenty of corn and hay?

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Tuesday 08 2021
  • Nov-21 UK feed wheat futures gained £1.80/t yesterday to close at £178.90/t. This followed a rise in US maize prices. Maize prices traded higher on worries about hot, dry weather forecast over the next two weeks, which could stress growing crops.
  • Paris rapeseed futures for Nov-21 also rose. It gained €4.50/t to €535.50/t due to worries about dry weather negatively impacting the Canadian canola and US soyabean crops.
  • After the UK and European markets closed, the USDA released its latest crop progress report. As at 6 June, 72% of the US maize crop was rated good or excellent, down from 76% a week earlier and 75% at this point last year. It was also below the market expectation of 74% in a Refinitiv poll.
  • The report also included the first assessment of 2021 soyabean crop conditions. 67% of the crop was rated good or excellent, below last year’s 72% and the trade expectation of 70%.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - Australian rapeseed area expands to four year high

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Wednesday 9 June
  • UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) gained £0.55/t yesterday, to close at £179.45/t the highest value since mid-May. The Nov-22 contract gained £1.45/t yesterday, to close at £170.00/t. Marginal gains were seen across Chicago grain markets, though Paris milling wheat saw a small fall.
  • US maize condition in the north-western belt caused small gains yesterday. With an already tight balance forecast, supply worries and possible harvest delays add to this concern.
  • For soyabeans, Chicago futures (Nov-21) gained $6.24/t yesterday on the back of dry and hot US Midwest weather. Argentinian soyabean crushing in April reportedly achieved a 6-year high of, with 4.2Mt of soyabeans crushed.
  • After liaising with industry and AHDB, Defra Survey Branch have revised the English on-farm stocks survey date to 30th June 2021, with a publication date of 26th August 2021. The AHDB will mirror these dates for the Merchants, Ports and Co-ops survey to ensure a joined-up approach for capturing data on the final day of the month/season.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - New-season fertiliser prices to start high

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Thursday 10 June
  • The November-21 UK feed wheat futures contract lost £2.50/t yesterday, to close at £176.95/t. Since the start of June, the contract looks to be trading within the channel between £176.00/t and £180.00/t. Similarly, the May-22 contract lost £2.50/t yesterday, to close at £181.60/t.
  • French analytical firm FranceAgriMer increased forecasts for French 2020/21 ending stocks for wheat and barley, both increased by 100Kt to 2.7Mt and 1.1Mt respectively. This is a result of lessened animal feed manufacturing demand and increased availability.
  • For vegetable oil markets, Malaysian Palm oil futures have dropped 2.3% since Tuesday following expectations of poor June export data. Demand for Palm oil has reduced as a result of the coronavirus pandemic heavily affecting India, the main Palm oil importer.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - Breakeven yields; an alternative way to view profit margins

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Friday 11 June
  • UK feed wheat futures continued their month of mixed movements yesterday. The Nov-21 contract fell by £1.50/t, to £175.45/t. The Nov-21 price is down further this morning following an uneventful WASDE for grain markets (read more below).
  • French soft wheat (good or excellent rating up 1 percentage point [pp]) and spring barley (good to excellent up 2pp) crop conditions continued to improve in the week to 7 June. The condition of spring barley and maize was unchanged.
  • The AHDB Planting and Variety Survey provides the only pre-harvest planting view of grain and oilseed crops. Play a part in creating accurate data for your industry by completing the planting survey form. Five minutes of your time can provide huge value to our great industry.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - WASDE leaves us waiting on weather

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Tuesday 15 June
  • UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) fell £1.85/t, to close yesterday at £173.15/t. This is the 4th consecutive fall for the contract. The recent fall has been driven by a series of supply news boosting production forecasts in the EU and Russia particularly. The Nov-22 contract fell slightly less, down £1.40/t to £166.60/t.
  • Falls in UK feed wheat followed global grain futures yesterday. Price weakening was in response to forecast US rains, easing US supply concerns for 2021/22. Though crop condition scores, released yesterday by the USDA, saw further cuts across the board.
  • The European Commission has said EU soft wheat exports for 2020/21, up to 13 June, totalled 24.88Mt. This is down 9.06Mt from the same week last season, though French data only runs until 2 June.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - US crop condition scores trimmed, but rain is on the way

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Wednesday 16 June
  • UK new-crop feed wheat futures continued their decline and fell £2.45/t to £170.70/t yesterday. The drop was echoed in May-22 futures which dropped £2.05 to £176.05/t.
  • Germany’s wheat crop next season is forecast to rise 3.8% to 22.98Mt, owing to beneficial weather of late. The German winter rapeseed crop is forecast up 4.6% to 3.67Mt. Both forecasts are from the German Association of Farm Co-operatives.
  • China’s pig producers have been urged to maintain production levels despite prices falling below cost of production levels. Live hog prices in China have dropped 60% since the start of the year. Should prices keep falling, farmers could cut herd sizes with a potential impact on feed demand. (Refinitiv)
Today's Grain market daily is now published - Ukrainian maize situation for UK feed markets next season

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Thursday 17 June
  • Nov-21 UK feed wheat futures gained £1.30/t yesterday to £172.00/t and the Nov-22 contract rose £1.15/t to 165.70/t. Global grain markets stabilised yesterday after prices fell earlier in the week due to US improved weather forecasts.
  • Nov-21 Paris rapeseed futures fell €9.75/t yesterday to €493.50/t due to a fall in vegetable oil prices and improved weather for Canadian canola crops. Meanwhile, the Nov-22 contract only fell €1.25/t to €421.75/t.
  • Vegetable oil prices have fallen due to reports that the US government is considering exempting US oil refiners from biofuel mandates (see Monday’s Market Report). If this is confirmed it would reduce demand for soy oil in the US.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - Rapeseed could ease if palm oil and sunflower supplies rise

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Friday 18 June
  • UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) lost more ground yesterday, closing yesterday at £170.00/t, a fall of £2.00/t on the day. The Nov-22 followed suit yesterday, closing at £164.20/t.
  • UK markets followed the general trend of global markets, with Chicago futures, both maize and wheat, declining. Global grain futures have been declining for the past few days, driven in part by technical drivers (read more here).
  • French crop conditions (wheat and barley) were unchanged according to FranceAgriMer. Earlier this week, German association of farm cooperatives, DRV, published its latest forecast of German crops. All wheat is expected to increase 839Kt year-on-year, to 22.98Mt
  • The German wheat crop will be important for UK markets, likely making up a reasonable proportion of high protein imports.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - Technical selling leaves markets reeling

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Tuesday 22 June
  • UK feed wheat futures took small falls yesterday. Nov-21 fell £0.65/t to £172.00/t, whereas May-22 fell £1.05/t to £176.95/t. This was on account of EU supply news (explained below) and US rains.
  • Most US regions received rain over the weekend, with hot and dry weather forecasted for the next 10 days only in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. Regions in the Midwest including Iowa received around 1 inch of rain.
  • The latest USDA crop progress report was released after EU and UK markets closed last night. Maize condition rated ‘good’ to ‘excellent' fell 3% points to 68%, for soyabeans this was 2% point fall to 60%. Winter wheat harvest was pegged as 17%, up 13% points from last week but behind last year by 10%. Spring wheat condition rated ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ fell 10% points to 27%.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - Supply outlook mixed as concerns grow for spring wheat

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Wednesday 23 June
  • UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) lost ground again yesterday, closing at £171.30/t, a fall of £0.70/t.
  • After a significant bounce higher on Friday, Chicago maize futures (Dec-21) fell for the last two days. Yesterday, the Dec-21 maize contract closed below the 50% retracement line between the 30 March low and 7 May peak.
  • After their recent declines, Nov-21 rapeseed futures have now made three consecutive days of gains, closing yesterday at €490.25/t, a rise of €19.25/t from last Thursday’s low. So far this morning, the Nov-21 contract has gapped higher, reaching €496.50/t as at midday.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - Funds continue to trim positions

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Thursday 24 June
  • UK wheat futures (Nov-21) closed yesterday at £171.45/t, gaining £0.15/t on Tuesday’s close. The May-22 contract closed at £176.90/t, up £0.15/t on Tuesday’s close.
  • Chicago soyabean (Nov-21) closed down 0.15% yesterday at $477.76/t. Pressure comes as widespread rains forecast in the U.S. Midwest which will benefit soyabeans.
  • This week Russia starts their 2021 harvest. A large production of grains is expected this year due to recent favourable weather. SovEcon has raised its forecast for Russia’s 2021 wheat crop by 2.2Mt to 84.6Mt.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - Domestic premium for rapeseed in 2021/22?

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Friday 25 June
  • Global grain and oilseed prices mostly moved lower yesterday, due to rain in the US and selling by speculative traders in the Chicago markets. The rain is likely to help US crops ahead of critical growth stages in July for maize and late-July/August for soyabeans.
  • UK feed wheat futures for Nov-21 fell £2.25/t to £169.20/t, while the Nov-22 contract fell £1.85 to 164.70/t.
  • Winter barley harvesting is underway in France and Russia. As these crops will soon be secured, we may start to see some risk premium come out from prices. This is if the results are as expected and/or crop estimates are not reduced.
  • Paris rapeseed futures for Nov-21 fell €0.50/t to €501.75/t yesterday.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - IGC predicts first global grain surplus since 2016/17

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Tuesday 29 June
  • UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21), gained £1.15/t yesterday, closing at £168.75/t. The move higher followed large losses last week. A similar pattern in prices was seen across global grain futures.
  • Yesterday’s US crop progress report showed broadly unchanged conditions for maize. The proportion of the crop rated “good” or “excellent” was down 1 percentage point, at 64%. Although, there was a 2 percentage point rise in the proportion of the crop rated “excellent”.
  • The maize crop is now entering silking, and crop conditions will be watched very closely for their impact on global grain prices throughout July.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - Protein premiums push higher

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Wednesday 30 June
  • UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) slightly fell £0.05/t yesterday to close at £168.70/t. Conversely the May-22 contract gained £0.25/t to £174.45/t. The spread between the two contracts at £5.75/t is the widest since January 2021.
  • Russian agricultural firm IKAR raised its forecast for the Russian wheat crop to 83.6Mt from an earlier forecast of 82.0Mt. Export forecasts are also seen at 39Mt for the wheat crop.
  • India cut its base import tax on crude palm oil to 10% from 15%, with the cut lasting from today until September 30. The tax cut should incentivise further imports by the world’s largest palm oil purchaser supporting palm oil prices. This in turn should support the vegetable oil complex.
  • Today (30 June) is the final date for submissions for both the Defra English on-farm stocks survey and the AHDB Merchants, Ports and Co-Ops survey. Both surveys provide great value to the agricultural data environment and so all submissions are greatly appreciated!
Today's Grain market daily is now published - 2021/22 UK rapeseed imports – what could be coming home?

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Thursday 1 July
  • UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) closed up £4.00/t yesterday, at £172.70/t. The rally in prices was led by USDA acreage (read more on maize below) and stocks reports.
  • UK wheat futures tracked the move in the wider global grain price complex. Chicago maize futures (Dec-21) gained 7.5% by the end of the day and is making further gains in early trading this morning.
  • US stocks of corn and soyabeans were below the average of industry estimates and 17.8% and 44.5% below year ago levels, in yesterday’s USDA stocks report.
Today's Grain market daily is now published - Bulls charge on acreage and stocks report

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AGCO reports sales increase of 43.5% compared to 2020 figures

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Written by Agriland Team from Agriland

The tractor manufacturer AGCO, which consists of brands such as Challenger, Fendt, GSI, Massey Ferguson and Valtra, reported its results for the second quarter ending June 30, 2021.

Net sales for the second quarter were approximately $2.9 billion, an increase of approximately 43.5% compared to the second quarter of 2020.

AEM

Reported net income was $3.73/share for the second quarter of 2021, and adjusted...
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