AHDB daily market commentary

[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 29 April 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (May-22) closed yesterday at £332.60/t, up £0.40/t on Wednesday’s close. While the new crop contract (Nov-22) closed at £304.65/t, gaining £8.05/t over the same period, moving closer to old-crop highs.
• The domestic market followed the global market up yesterday, as poor weather in parts of the US hindered crop prospects and the potential the Russia-Ukraine conflict could impact trade into the 2022/23 marketing year.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) closed yesterday at €1,025.25/t, down €19.75/t on Wednesday’s close. While the new crop contract (Nov-22) closed at €857.25/t, gaining €2.25/t over the same period.
• Thank you to all who attended the Spring Grain Market Outlook webinar. Check out our Spring Grain Market Outlook webinar: Questions and Answers page for more information and a link to the webinar recording.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - The bullish tone continues for the oilseed complex

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 05 May 2022

• Old crop UK feed wheat futures (May-22) closed yesterday at £329.50/t, down £0.50/t on Tuesday’s close. New crop futures (Nov-22) settled at £302.70/t, gaining £4.75/t over the same period.
• Global wheat markets were supported yesterday on rumoured reports that India would restrict exports, as drought poses a threat to their production. Markets are very sensitive to any new news at the moment due to Ukraine’s exportable surplus in question. Later that day it was reported by an official at the Indian food ministry that they would only consider curbs if there is a sudden unexpected surge in shipments, but still have capacity to fulfil export expectations.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed yesterday at €821.75/t yesterday, gaining €17.25/t on Tuesday’s close.
• As at the end-February 3.85Mt of wheat was stored on farm in England and Wales, up 45% on the year, according to the latest Defra stocks survey. Total wheat stocks held by merchants, ports and co-ops at the end of February were 12% down on the year at 1.28Mt, according to latest AHDB data. On farm barley stocks were down 35% on the year at 767Kt, with the amount being held by merchant, ports and co-ops down 18% at 786Kt.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - Don’t let your profits dry out

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 13 May 2022

• UK feed wheat (May-22) gained £4.65/t yesterday to close at £348.65/t. The new-crop contract (Nov-22) gained the same amount yesterday, closing at £333.15/t. Both contract highs, ahead of the latest world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) yesterday evening.
• Global grain contracts saw large gains in response to the WASDE release last night, showing a tightening global supply and demand balance for 2021/22 and 2022/23. See further details below. Chicago wheat (Dec-22) gained $23.51/t yesterday, to close at $435.92/t. Paris wheat (Dec-22) jumped up €10.75/t, to close at €407.50/t.
• This morning, following global wheat and maize prices up, the UK feed wheat (Nov-22) futures contract was trading at £339.50/t (13:30BST).
• Paris rapeseed futures remained relatively unchanged yesterday. The Nov-22 contract closed down €0.25/t yesterday, to €835.25/t.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - Production impacts from reduced nitrogen fertiliser strategies

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 17 May 2022

• Yesterday’s old crop (May-22) UK feed wheat futures saw an increase of £9.20/t on Friday’s closed to £361.00/t. Meanwhile, new crop futures (Nov-22) closed at £352.00/t, a gain of £15.70/t from the end of last week. Both domestic old and new crops were contract highs.
• High wheat prices are likely driven by the wheat export ban imposed by India, tightening global supply and the downward revision to US crop conditions.
• Further tightening of supply could be felt after Morocco's Ministry of Agriculture announced on Friday that the country is expecting a poor harvest due to their recent drought. The USDA predicted last Thursday that new crop wheat production is estimated at 2.25Mt, down over 70% from 2021/22.
• Paris rapeseed futures price (Aug-22) jumped £9.00/t from Friday’s closed to £879.50/t. The Nov-22 contract prices saw a similar increase of £8.75/t, closing at £866.25/t.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - US crop condition report adding to supply concerns

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 19 May 2022

• Markets saw some price corrections yesterday, following the UN’s efforts to restore Ukrainian grain shipments and Russia’s forecast ample supplies.
• As such, yesterday’s UK wheat (May-22) price fell £25.40/t from Tuesday, closing at £333.10/t. New crop futures (Nov-22) closed at £340.10/t a loss of £11.40/t over the same period. Both contracts followed declines seen in Chicago and Paris wheat contracts.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Aug-22) saw a €44.75/t decline, closing at €831.25/t. The Nov-22 contract closed at €819.75/t, a similar decline of €41.50/t from Tuesday’s close. News that Indonesia will be lifting it’s palm oil export ban from Monday is providing price pressure across the whole oilseed complex. Germany have also presented legislation that by 2030 the plan is that they will not use any food based biofuels.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - How are margins looking for harvests’ 22 and 23?

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 25 May 2022

• New crop UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) closed at £331.20/t yesterday, down £5.00/t on Monday’s close.
• Forecasts of Ukraine’s new crop grain harvest has been raised by APK-Inform. 2022/23 grain exports could reach 39.4Mt, up from 33.2Mt in the previous outlook (APK-Inform). This is down to winter harvest being better-than-expected.
• New crop Chicago maize futures (Dec-22) closed at $285.53/t, down $5.41/t on Monday’s close.
• As outlined in yesterday’s market commentary, maize plantings have progressed by 23 percentage points (pp) last week. The improved planting conditions in the US, along with the news that China will be allowing Brazilian maize imports, poses a potential threat to US exports (Refinitiv).
• New crop Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed down €4.00/t from Monday’s close at €810.00/t.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - UK trade, shifting the balance of domestic S&D?

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 26 May 2022

• Following Tuesday’s news that Russia and Ukraine are striking a deal to allow exports of food products, global grain and oilseed markets lost ground yesterday.
• Nov-22 UK feed wheat futures closed down again yesterday, losing £9.00/t from Tuesdays close to settle at £318.50/t.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed at €794.25/t on Wednesday, down €15.75/t on the day.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - UK wheat balance eases while barley remains tight

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 31 May 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) closed at £308.25/t yesterday, down £6.50/t from Friday’s close. The May-23 contract closed at £324.25/t, dropping £5.75/t over the same period.
• News of establishing a potential grain corridor out of Ukraine is easing concern over global wheat supply. More on this below.
• Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-22) followed suit with a €7.75/t loss from Friday to settle at €400.00/t.
• An oil embargo on Russia to cut imports into the EU by 90% before the end of the year, has supported the price of crude oil. Nearby (Jul-22) brent crude oil prices closed at $121.67/barrel yesterday, gaining $2.24/barrel from Friday’s close.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) were down €13.25/t from Friday’s close at €808.25/t yesterday.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - How much wheat is leaving the Black Sea?

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

07 June 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) closed yesterday at £317.50/t, gaining £20.00/t on last Wednesday’s close (01 Jun). May-23 gained £19.70/t over the same period, closing yesterday at £323.25/t.
• Our domestic market followed the Chicago and Paris markets higher yesterday. This bullish spur comes as fresh news from the Black Sea suggests disruptions to shipments out of Ukraine look to continue, as the conflict intensifies in the country.
• Paris Rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed yesterday at €799.25/t, gaining €28.50/t on Friday’s close. Rain in parts of the Canadian prairies over the coming week could potentially leave some canola fields unsown. This is a watchpoint, not a major cause for concern, as large parts of their crop will have been sown already.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now now published - What could our wheat production be this harvest?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

09 June 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) closed at £302.50/t yesterday, down £2.50/t from Tuesday’s close. The May-23 contract closed at £308.70/t, dropping £1.30/t over the same period.
• Whilst domestic prices were down slightly, global wheat prices continue climbing as significant exports from Ukraine are looking more unlikely.
• Chicago wheat futures (Dec-22) closed at $404.78/t yesterday, up $1.83/t, from the previous day’s close.
• Nov-22 Paris rapeseed futures saw a rise of €7.75/t from Tuesday’s close, settling at €785.75/t. This increase is again a likely result of the doubtful export potential of Ukraine.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - What could happen to delivered premiums going forward?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 14 June 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) closed yesterday at £309.50/t, up £3.50/t from Friday’s close. Nov-23 futures gained £2.50/t over the same period, closing at £268.50/t.
• UK gains followed global wheat contracts up, finding support from hot conditions set to hit the US and EU.
• Ukrainian grain harvest is forecasted to drop to 48.5Mt this harvest, from 86Mt last year, as sown area is down 25%. Export channels from Ukraine are yet to be successfully negotiated.
• The latest US crop progress report was released yesterday evening, to 12 June. Figures show maize ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ rating at 72%, down 1 percentage point (pp) from the previous week. Soyabean conditions were pegged at 70% ‘good’ to ‘excellent’. Winter wheat harvest is now at 10% complete.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - UK grain trade, domestic wheat balance easing but barley tight

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 16 June 2022

• UK wheat futures (Nov-22) closed yesterday at £310.05/t, down £0.80/t on Tuesday’s close. May-23 closed at £315.60/t, down £0.60/t over the same period.
• Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-22) were unchanged on the day closing at €386.75/t. Strengthening (+1.26%) sterling against the euro provided a small amount of pressure to the domestic market. Trading closed yesterday at £1 = €1.1659.
• Chicago wheat futures are under pressure as harvest progresses, with dry conditions in the Plains anticipated to speed up harvest. As of 12 June winter wheat harvest in the US was at 10% complete, down slightly from the five year average of 12% at this point. Updated figures will be released 20 June.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Will the UK wheat discount to Paris grow further in 2022/23?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 17 June 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) saw a slight increase yesterday, closing at £311.30/t, up £1.25/t from Wednesday’s close. May-23 was up by £1.50/t over the same period, settling at £317.10/t.
• Hot weather concerns for US maize are supporting Chicago futures ahead of their Juneteenth public holiday, the Dec-22 contract closing at $289.37/t yesterday, up $5.51/t from the previous day’s close.
• Paris rapeseed (Nov-22) saw a €3.00/t rise from the previous session, closing at €757.25/t

Todays Grain Market Daily is now published - What could happen to the UK rapeseed area over the coming season?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 24 June 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) fell by £10.70/t yesterday closing at £282.00/t, as a likely result of EU harvest pressure coming in. The May-23 contract fell by the same amount, closing at £287.80/t.
• Continental prices followed suit, with the Dec-22 Paris milling wheat contract seeing a €10.75/t drop from the previous session, closing at €352.25/t.
• Next season’s soyabean production was revised up by the IGC yesterday. The Chicago soyabean Nov-22 contract closed at $520.05/t, down $22.42/t from Wednesday’s close.

Todays Grain Market Daily is now published - 2022/23 maize and soyabean production estimates rise

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 28 June 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) closed yesterday at £271.50/t, down £2.75/t on Friday’s close. The May-23 contract fell by the same amount yesterday, closing at £278.00/t. The Nov-23 contract closed at £242.30/t, down £0.70/t on Friday’s close.
• The domestic market has followed the Chicago and Paris markets down. Reason for this pressure is the expanding wheat harvest in the northern hemisphere, and lack of demand for U.S. origin. In the US what direction prices will take next seems to be curbing demand despite harvest progressing.
• In the latest USDA crop progress report, U.S. winter wheat harvest (as at Jun 26) is estimated 41% complete, up 16 percentage points (pp) on the week before. This is ahead of the five-year average of 35%.

Todays Grain Market Daily is now published - Will soyabeans influence rapeseed prices in 2022/23? Grain market daily

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Wednesday 29 June 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) recovered some losses yesterday, closing at £277.00/t. This is up £5.50/t on Monday’s close. The May-23 and Nov-23 contracts also rose by the same amount, closing at £283.50/t and £247.80/t yesterday, respectively.
• Domestic grain prices followed Chicago and Paris futures contracts yesterday. Contracts gained support on lower-than-expected ratings for US row crops, demand (more on this below) as well as wider gains in the financial markets.
• The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Monday rated 67% of US maize and 65% of soyabeans in “good-to-excellent” condition as at 26 June. This is down from 70% and 68% respectively the previous week and follows dry weather conditions across June.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) saw more modest gains yesterday and closed at €685.50/t, up by €4.25/t on Monday’s close.

Todays Grain Market Daily is now published - What’s driving the volatile grain market?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 01 July 2022

• UK feed wheat futures fell yesterday as Northern hemisphere harvest continues. The Nov-22 contract closed at £275.55/t, down £6.95/t from the previous day’s close.
• Continental prices saw a similar loss, Paris milling wheat (Dec-22) futures were down €7.25/t over the same period closing at €344.50/t.
• Global grain markets were down following the Chicago market as grain stocks in the USDA quarterly report were in-line with trade expectations – Read more below.
• The global rapeseed market saw lowering prices yesterday. The Paris rapeseed Nov-22 contract lost €7.00/t from Wednesday’s session, closing at €694.75/t

Todays Grain Market Daily is now published - USDA acreage report ups maize area but cuts soyabean area

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Friday 08 July 2022

• Global wheat markets were up yesterday as recession fears eased. Today markets continue to see some support from concerns to the Argentinian wheat crop, considering unfavourable conditions look to reduce plantings according to Buenos Aires Grain Exchange yesterday.
• Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-22) closed yesterday at €328.75/t, up €12.25/t from the previous Wednesday’s close.
• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) followed suit, closing at £267.75/t, up £7.75/t over the same period. New crop futures (Nov-23) closed at £236.50/t, gaining £8.10/t over yesterday’s session.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed yesterday at €692.00/t, up €9.00/t on Wednesday’s close.

Todays Grain Market Daily is now published - What can we expect from harvest 22?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Thursday 14 July 2022

• Markets saw some downwards pressure yesterday after there were reports that a Ukrainian export deal could be signed next week between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN.
• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) fell £1.40/t over yesterday’s session, closing at £275.30/t. The May-23 contract closed at £279.85/t, seeing a bigger loss of £2.45/t over the same period.
• UK trade data was updated yesterday. The UK imported 168,940 tonnes of wheat throughout May and exported 100,163 tonnes. Imports were up 38,763 tonnes from April’s figure and exports were up by 43,602.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) lost €6.50/t yesterday to close at €672.25/t, also losing support because of the potential Ukrainian export deal

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Global markets feeling the heat

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Tuesday 19 July 2022

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) closed yesterday at £263.00/t, up £5.10/t on Friday’s close. The May-23 contract closed at £268.90/t, up £4.30/t over the same period.
• Speculation over an export deal in the black sea region remains, but UN chief claims there is a long way to go before peace talks.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) gained €1.25/t over the weekend to close at €681.25/t yesterday.

Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - Are UK milling premiums to remain high?

Latest futures market prices available here - https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds-markets

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