AHDB weekly market report

[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 06 March 2023

UK focus​

New crop UK feed wheat futures were trading at a premium to old crop prices for much of last week. However, over the week (Friday-Friday), the May-23 contract climbed 0.2%, while the Nov-23 contract was down 1.6%, seeing old crop prices creep back up higher than new crop on Friday.

Domestic delivered prices followed futures movements (Thursday to Thursday). Feed wheat delivered into East Anglia (Mar-23 delivery) was quoted at £226.50/t on Thursday, down £5.50/t on the week. Bread wheat delivered into the North West (Mar-23 delivery) fell £7.50/t over the week, quoted at £303.00/t on Thursday.

On Thursday, AHDB released the most recent UK human and industrial cereal usage data, as well as updated GB animal feed production figures. Reduced feed production continues to see cereal demand decline in the sector, with total cereal usage for compounders (wheat, barley, oats and maize), back 9% this season-to-date. For more information, read Thursday’s Grain Market Daily here.

Rapeseed focus​

Similar to soyabeans, Paris rapeseed prices (May-23) were pressured at the start of the week but supported at the end. However, overall, the contract did close down €3.50/t across the week to close on Friday at €538.50/t.

Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Mar-23 delivery) was quoted at £464.00/t on Friday, down £8.00/t across the week. Friday to Friday sterling was much unchanged (-0.04%) against the euro, closing Friday at £1 = €1.1322. Greater pressure was captured on our domestic market as Paris rapeseed futures gained on Friday afternoon (03 Mar), after the AHDB delivered survey was conducted.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-06-march-2023

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[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 13 March 2023

UK focus

UK feed wheat futures (May-23) were down 5.5% across the week (Friday-Friday). New crop prices (Nov-23) eased 3.5% over the same period and continue to trade at a premium to old crop prices.

Domestic delivered prices followed futures movement last week (Thursday to Thursday). Feed wheat delivered into East Anglia (Mar-23 delivery) was quoted at £215.50/t on Thursday, down £11.00/t on the week. Bread wheat delivered into the North West for March delivery fell £12.00/t over the week, quoted at £291.00/t on Thursday.

On Friday, AHDB released the latest UK trade data. Wheat exports for the month of January totalled 159.5Kt and total wheat exports so far this season (Jul-Jan) are at 735.8Kt. This season to date, wheat exports are more than double where there were at the same point last season, when they totalled 265Kt.

On Thursday, AHDB published the most recent GB fertiliser prices for February. Alongside natural gas futures, fertiliser prices have eased somewhat. UK produced AN (34.5%) for spot delivery in February averaged £630/t, down £70/t from January’s price, and down £19/t from the same point last year.

Rapeseed focus

There was widespread pressure in rapeseed markets across the week as Paris rapeseed futures closed at €493.00/t on Friday, down €45.50/t across the week. Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Mar-23) was quoted at £423.50/t on Friday, down £40.50/t across the week. ICE Canadian canola futures were down 6% too, from heavy selling by speculative funds.

ABARES announced last week that Australia’s canola crop for 2022/23 is now estimated at 8.3Mt, up 1Mt from the last estimate, with the La Niña weather event leading to record yields.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-06-march-2023

Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch

 

[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Monday 27 March 2023

UK focus
Over last week, UK feed wheat futures (May-23) followed movements in global wheat markets, ending the week down 2.6% Friday-Friday. New crop prices (Nov-23) also felt some pressure, down 1.2% over the same period. Gains seen on the UK feed wheat futures for old and new crop on Friday offset some of the losses seen Monday to Thursday.

Delivered prices followed futures movement last week (Thursday-Thursday), before UK feed wheat futures felt some support on Friday. Feed wheat delivered into East Anglia (March 23 delivery) was quoted at £195.00/t on Thursday, down £16.50/t from the previous week. For the same destination, harvest 23 feed wheat was quoted at £201.50/t.

Bread wheat delivered into the North West for March 23 delivery was quoted at £272.00/t, down £16.50/t on the week.

UK barley continues to price competitively within Europe, and our export campaign as of late has been strong. As at 20 March, so far this season the EU had imported 824.6Kt of UK origin barley, up from 605.8Kt at the same point last season (European Commission Customs Surveillance data).

AHDB’s next UK supply and demand estimates are due to be published on Thursday (30 March), and will include revised figures based on updated usage data and HMRC trade data. Find January’s estimates (and updated estimates from Thursday onwards) here.

Rapeseed focus

Pressure in the oilseed complex weighed on rapeseed prices last week. Paris rapeseed futures (May-23) closed Friday at €457.00/t, down €10.25/t across the week.

Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Mar-23) was quoted on Friday at £385.50/t, down £22.50/t across the week. Losses were greater on our domestic market due to timings of our delivered survey, which captured the prior week’s prices (17 March) higher than the Paris market close, see more information in last week’s report.

Crop conditions in the EU appear to be progressing well. The trade association Coceral now estimate EU+UK 2023 rapeseed production at 21.1Mt, up from 20.4Mt in December’s report.

There will be an update on UK crop conditions on the AHDB crop development page, provisionally due to be published this coming Friday (31 March).

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-27-march-2023

Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch