AHDB weekly market report

Monday 28 June
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UK grain markets
UK feed wheat futures prices fell last week, following the global trend. The Nov-21 contract fell
£5.05/t to £167.60. But Nov-22 prices only lost £1.75/t Friday-Friday, at £165.20/t.

New crop delivered wheat prices fell in line with futures markets Thursday – Thursday. Bread wheat delivered to the Northwest in Nov-21 was reported at £202.50/t. This is a £33.50/t premium over Nov-21 futures on Thursday, unchanged from 17 June. Meanwhile, biscuit wheat delivered into Northamptonshire in Nov-21 was £184.00/t, a £15.00/t premium to Nov-21 futures.

New crop (Nov-21) feed barley was quoted at £159.50/t, delivered Avonrange. This is a £12.00/t discount to the equivalent feed wheat price.

Old crop (July) bread wheat delivered to the Northwest was £224.00/t, down £0.50/t from last week.

There was 78.8Kt of wheat in UK feed wheat futures stores as at 25 June, compared to 57.4Kt on 26 June 2020. This is the largest amount in futures stores for the last Friday in June since 2017, when there was 132.2Kt in stores.
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Rapeseed markets
Rapeseed markets were supported last week. Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-21) closed on Friday at €504.25/t, up €21.00/t across the week.

The gains shadowed the support in Canadian canola futures, forecast hot and dry weather with limited rains added to drought concerns in the Canadian Prairies.

Delivered rapeseed (Harvest-21, into Erith) was quoted at £433.50/t on Friday, gaining £20.50/t across the week.

Stratégie Grains’ latest oilseed report raised the outlook for the 2021 rapeseed crop in EU-27. Projected production has increased to 17.0Mt, up from last months’ forecast of 16.8Mt. The drop in vegetable oil prices over the last month has cut margins for crushers, reducing demand prospects for 2021/22 season.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-28-june-2021
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Monday 5 July
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UK grain markets
UK delivered cereal prices followed the global market higher through to last Thursday. Feed wheat delivered into East Anglia (Nov 2021) gained £3.50/t Thursday to Thursday, quoted at £173.50/t. Similar increases were seen across regions for both milling and feed wheat.

Once again, feed barley trade remains very thin, with little being traded. Harvest feed barley, delivered Avonmouth, was quoted at £151.00/t, £21.50/t underneath the respective feed wheat market. This time last year the discount of Avonmouth feed barley to feed wheat stood at £36.50/t.

The latest GB animal feed and UK human and industrial usage statistics were published last week. Both sets of data displayed strong barley usage, which combined with strong feed usage in 2021, has led to the tight old crop (2020/21) market we find ourselves in.

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Rapeseed markets

UK delivered prices jumped last week tracking large increases in oilseed markets. Rapeseed delivered into Erith (Hvst) was quoted at £462.50/t on 2 July, up £29.00/t. Looking back to this time last season, the same delivery into Erith was quoted at £335.50/t, £127.00/t lower than current price levels.

Canadian canola futures gained on Friday to contract highs, supported heavily by the ongoing severe heatwave afflicting the country. The most active contract (Nov-21) gained 2.4% on Friday to close at CA $830.90 (£486.88/t). An estimated 71% of Alberta’s canola was in good – excellent condition, as of 28 June. Conditions are sure to be affected by the duration of the heatwave if it continues.

Our planting and variety survey (PVS) figures are due for release on 8 July and will give an updated estimate for the domestic rapeseed area.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-28-june-2021
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Monday 19 July
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UK grain markets
UK grain markets followed the global rally last week. UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) gained £12.55/t (7.5%), to close at £176.85/t. This was a significant rally with the market closing on Friday ahead of the most recent high (£172.80/t on 1 July 2021). Having made five days of gains, futures could now take a breather.

The UK physical market followed the futures rally. Feed wheat, delivered East Anglia (Nov-21) gained £6.50/t Thursday to Thursday, quoted at £173.00/t. Feed barley prices rose by less. The premium of wheat over barley was £19.50/t in East Anglia and £18.50/t at Avonmouth. Delivered milling wheat premiums to Nov-21 futures were quoted marginally higher in the Northwest and Northants (+£0.50/t).

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Rapeseed markets

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-21) climbed €20.00/t to close at €543.25/t on Friday. Paris rapeseed prices strengthened on the back of gains in Canadian canola futures.

Canadian canola supply continues to be a large concern due to extremely hot and dry weather across the Prairies. To the 12 July, just 18% of rapeseed crops were rated ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ according to the Saskatchewan Government, down from 77% the same week last year.

UK delivered prices followed the trends in global prices. Rapeseed delivered into Erith (Nov-21) was quoted at £479.50/t on Friday, up £22.00/t from 9 July.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-19-july-2021
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Monday 26 July
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UK focus
UK delivered prices rose last week Thursday-Thursday. However, Nov-21 delivered wheat (milling and feed) prices rose by less than Nov-21 futures over the same period, reducing the basis.

Last week the gap between bread and feed wheat prices was stable. However, the gap could widen if there are issues with UK quality. This is especially given the uncertainty over crops in Germany and Canada, which are typical import origins for the UK.

Feed barley prices rose by more than feed wheat, closing the discount by £2.00/t to £18.50/t in the Avon area (Hvst delivery).

Meanwhile, prices for feed wheat delivered before the end of this month were again over £30/t higher than prices for harvest delivery.
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Rapeseed focus
Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-21) closed Friday at €530.25/t, down €13.00/t across the week. Delivered rapeseed (Nov-21, into Erith) was quoted at £458.50/t, down £21.00/t across the week.

Sterling strengthening against the euro across the week added further pressure on our domestic market. Trading closed Friday at £1 = €1.1683, up by 0.2% across the week (Refinitiv).

Canadian canola futures (Nov-21) were down 3.7% across the week. Much of the drought impact has been priced in and weather models suggest widespread precipitation over the Canadian Prairies in the next couple of weeks.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-26-july-2021
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Monday 2 August
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UK focus
In the week ending 27 July, 47% of the UK winter barley crop had been cut. Yields of winter barley were averaging 6.6 – 7.0t/ha; the midpoint represented the five-year average. Bushel weights of barley are so far lower than normal. Read the full Harvest report here.

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21), gained £6.75/t last week, ending on Friday at £182.50/t. UK prices followed the global trend in wheat prices.

Gains in the UK physical market were slightly stronger than in the futures market, suggesting a tighter feel to the domestic market week-on-week. For milling wheat, the premium of North West milling wheat over futures gained £3.00/t week-on-week to £35.00/t. Smaller premium growth was seen in the Midlands (+£1.00/t to £24.50/t) and in London/Essex (+£1.00/t to £21.50/t). With concerns over global milling quality, this is not surprising.
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Rapeseed focus
Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-21) fell €7.75/t to €522.50/t (£446.16/t) last week, tracking the Friday fall in soyabean markets. Delivered rapeseed for harvest delivery (Erith) was quoted at £452.50/t, up £0.50/t as at Friday 30 July. November delivery into Erith was quoted at £460.00/t, up £1.50/t.

On Friday, we released our first harvest report, which detailed that the domestic OSR harvest was 9% complete as of 27 July. With this, a preliminary yield is estimated at 3.0 – 3.4t/ha. Rainfall later this week could delay progression for much of the UK.

Stratégie Grains kept firm its outlook for 2021/22 rapeseed production in the EU-27, estimated at 17.03Mt. This would be 2.5% above the output last season of 16.61Mt. 2021/22 ending stocks were cut slightly as the analysts expect reduced imports from Canada and Australia due to high prices.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-02-august-2021
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Monday 9 August
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UK grain focus
Following global contracts, UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) gained £4.00/t on the week, closing on Friday at £186.50/t.

UK physical prices followed the pattern of futures contracts (Thurs-Thurs), last week. The Milling wheat premium to futures (Nov-21) remained at £35.00/t (Delivered November, North West). Though, feed wheat (East Anglia, Nov-21) gained slightly less than futures, quoted £3.50/t higher on the week.

Last week, we saw the release of the full animal feed and human and industrial (H&I) usage figures for 2020/21. Animal feed figures showed wheat usage down. Barley usage is likely to remain strong for 2021/22.

For H&I, cereal usage too was down across the board. Though with barley usage rebounded to near pre-covid 5-year average levels in the final months of 2020/21 for brewers, maltsters and distillers, total barley demand may keep barley tight in 2021/22.

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Rapeseed focus
Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-21) closed on Friday at €542.50/t, gaining €20.00/t across the week. Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Nov-21) was quoted on Friday at £466.50/t, gaining £6.50/t across the week.

Gains were limited on the domestic market as Sterling strengthened (+0.62%) against the Euro to close on Friday at £1 = €1.1786.

Driving the rapeseed market is the drought in Canada, which is pushing ICE canola futures higher. However, a lot of this price climb is due to speculators and funds. Commercials are driving prices by covering short positions (Refinitiv).

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-09-august-2021
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Monday 16 August
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UK grain markets
UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) closed Friday at £195.00/t, a new contract high. This is following global trends as concerns about global supply tightness strengthen.

The Thursday-Thursday gain of £11.20/t on the Nov-21 futures contract was exaggerated further in physical prices. Delivered feed wheat (November delivery), saw an uplift of £12.50-£14.00/t from the previous week depending on location.

Delivered feed barley, for harvest delivery, also saw a week-on-week uplift; £7.50-£8.50/t depending on location. November delivery was quoted last week at £175.50/t in Avonrange, the highest price reported for November delivery since October 2018.

UK bread wheat premium to futures (Nov-21) also extended last week to £37.00/t for November delivery in the North West. This is up from £35.00/t as at 5 August.

Last week also saw the release of the second AHDB harvest progress report. It showed, by 12 August, the GB winter barley harvest was 88% complete and winter OSR harvest was 61% complete. Only an estimated 2.5% of the GB winter wheat area had been cut, the slowest start since 2017.

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Rapeseed focus
Rapeseed prices again rose sharply last week. On Friday, domestic rapeseed delivered to Erith in Nov-21 was £485.00/t in AHDB’s weekly survey. This was £18.50/t higher than 6 August and £25.00/t above the price on 30 July.

The USDA cut 4.2Mt from its estimate of the Canadian rapeseed crop to 16.0Mt, 21% smaller than last month. Despite a reduction to global rapeseed demand (-2.9Mt), global stocks at the end of 2021/22 are now forecast to be just 4.6Mt, the lowest since 2007/08.

In the Canadian province of Alberta, the local government estimates the canola (rapeseed) yield at just 1.38t/ha this year. This would be 40% below the five-year average. Alberta typically produces 29% of the Canadian crop but has been badly affected by the hot, dry weather this season.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here
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Monday 23 August
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UK grain markets
UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) closed Friday at £195.00/t, a new contract high. This is following global trends as concerns about global supply tightness strengthen.

The Thursday-Thursday gain of £11.20/t on the Nov-21 futures contract was exaggerated further in physical prices. Delivered feed wheat (November delivery), saw an uplift of £12.50-£14.00/t from the previous week depending on location.

Delivered feed barley, for harvest delivery, also saw a week-on-week uplift; £7.50-£8.50/t depending on location. November delivery was quoted last week at £175.50/t in Avonrange, the highest price reported for November delivery since October 2018.

UK bread wheat premium to futures (Nov-21) also extended last week to £37.00/t for November delivery in the North West. This is up from £35.00/t as at 5 August.

Last week also saw the release of the second AHDB harvest progress report. It showed, by 12 August, the GB winter barley harvest was 88% complete and winter OSR harvest was 61% complete. Only an estimated 2.5% of the GB winter wheat area had been cut, the slowest start since 2017.

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Rapeseed focus

Rapeseed prices again rose sharply last week. On Friday, domestic rapeseed delivered to Erith in Nov-21 was £485.00/t in AHDB’s weekly survey. This was £18.50/t higher than 6 August and £25.00/t above the price on 30 July.

The USDA cut 4.2Mt from its estimate of the Canadian rapeseed crop to 16.0Mt, 21% smaller than last month. Despite a reduction to global rapeseed demand (-2.9Mt), global stocks at the end of 2021/22 are now forecast to be just 4.6Mt, the lowest since 2007/08.

In the Canadian province of Alberta, the local government estimates the canola (rapeseed) yield at just 1.38t/ha this year. This would be 40% below the five-year average. Alberta typically produces 29% of the Canadian crop but has been badly affected by the hot, dry weather this season.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here
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Tuesday 31 August
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UK grain markets
UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) went into the bank holiday £2.75/t higher, Friday-Friday, at £195.75/t. The move in UK markets followed the strength in Paris milling wheat futures.

UK milling wheat premiums firmed slightly last week. Milling wheat delivered North West (Nov-21) was quoted at £234.00/t, as at Thursday, £38.00/t over futures. Nearby milling premiums are behind last year’s levels, but well ahead of the five-year average.

The latest harvest report was published last week. The wheat harvest still lags last year, with yields estimated at 8.0t/ha to 8.4t/ha. Protein and Hagberg Falling Numbers of milling wheat samples generally meet milling specification, whilst specific weights are seen to be slightly low.
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Rapeseed focus
Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-21) closed on Friday at €571.50/t, gaining €14.00/t across the week. Delivered oilseed rape (Erith, Nov-21) shadowed these gains quoted at £504.50/t on Friday, up £6.00/t across the week.

Gains were limited on the domestic market as sterling strengthened marginally (+0.11%) against the euro across the week, closing on Friday at £1 = €1.1665.

Yesterday Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-21) opened the week higher at €574.00/t, a gain of €2.50/t on Friday’s close.

Yesterday saw the release of the Statistics Canada production estimates. This report pegged canola production at 14.7Mt, down 24% from last year. This is lower than the USDA estimate of 16Mt, although larger than the average trade forecast of 14.1Mt.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here
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Monday 27 September

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UK grain markets

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) gained £3.70/t last week, quoted on Friday at £194.00/t.

UK feed wheat prices (delivered) followed futures gains. Into East Anglia (Nov-21), delivered prices rose £3.50/t to £193.00/t (Thurs-Thurs). Feed barley delivered East Anglia (Nov-21) was quoted at £178.50/t, a discount of £14.50/t to wheat.

For bread wheat, Northamptonshire (Nov-21) was up £7.00/t, quoted at £232.00/t on Thursday.

The final 2020/21 cereals supply and demand estimates were released last Thursday. Commercial ending stocks as we entered 2021/22 season, look tight for both wheat and barley.

Where now for wheat in 2021/22? The UK wheat crop looks as though it could reach 14.5Mt, though demand could stay strong for feed grains and milling wheat quality remains a concern.

With tight global supply of milling wheat too, UK milling premiums are ahead of this time last year.

The last AHDB GB harvest report is due on Friday (1 Oct).

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Rapeseed focus
Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-21) closed on Friday at €619.50/t, gaining €18.75/t across the week. Delivered rapeseed (Erith, Nov-21) was quoted on Friday at £532.00/t, gaining £12.50/t across the week.

Rapeseed planted area across Europe is anticipated to increase year-on-year in key countries such as France and Germany. The increase is driven by the current high prices.

In France, planted area is set to rise by between 15-20%. If realised this would put the area at 1.12Mha – 1.17Mha hectares, but still below the 2016-2020 average of 1.36Mha (France agriculture ministry).

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-27-september-2021
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Monday 04 October

Following requested feedback earlier in the year, we have amended our dials. The dials in this report reflect the analyst’s view of the possible direction in markets. The two-week (solid line) and six-month (dashed line) outlooks are based on the best available information at the time of writing. Please note, these views do not constitute trading advice and direction of markets may change due to new information since the time of writing.

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UK Grain Market
UK wheat futures (Nov-21) followed global markets, gaining £8.50/t across the week, to close Friday at £202.50/t.

Delivered values followed this trend. Feed wheat (delivered into East Anglia, Nov-21) was quoted at £200.50/t, gaining £7.50/t Thursday to Thursday. Delivered feed barley into the East was quoted at £184.00/t, gaining £5.50 for the same period. This saw barley’s discount to feed wheat stretch further; to £16.50/t.

Delivered milling wheat (North-West, Nov-21) was quoted at £252.00/t on Thursday, a premium of £51.50/t over UK futures.

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Rapeseed focus

Rapeseed markets continued their upward march last week. Nov-21 Paris rapeseed futures gained €24.75/t across the week to close Friday at €644.25/t. Thursday saw record levels of €651.00/t reached. Winnipeg canola (Nov-21) also climbed reaching the highest point since August on Thursday. This contract closed the week at CA$903.10/t, up CA$15.20/t on the week.

UK delivered rapeseed (Nov-21 delivery, into Erith) was quoted at £549.50/t, up a further £17.50/t from the previous Friday. UK physical prices continue to track Paris futures.

From our delivered oilseeds survey, prices for delivered rapeseed into Erith, in November 2021, have gained £79.00/t since 2 July (start of the marketing year) and £184.00/t since they were first quoted on 8 January 2021.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-04-october-2021

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Monday 11 October

Following requested feedback earlier in the year, we have amended our dials. The dials in this report reflect the analyst’s view of the possible direction in markets. The two-week (solid line) and six-month (dashed line) outlooks are based on the best available information at the time of writing. Please note, these views do not constitute trading advice and direction of markets may change due to new information since the time of writing.

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UK focus​

This morning, Defra estimated the 2021 UK wheat crop at 14.0Mt. This is a marked increase from the 9.7Mt harvested in 2020. This is below what many in industry, including AHDB, had expected. Looking at the provisional English area, yields would need to have fallen below the five-year average to give a crop of this size. This differs from industry information and AHDB’s harvest reports.

The barley crop is provisionally 7.1Mt, down from the 8.1Mt harvested last year.

Only the UK production numbers are currently available. Details of the UK area and yields, plus the size of the oat and rapeseed crops will be published on Thursday morning.

Bread wheat prices continued to rise last week. Full specification bread wheat (≥ 13% protein, 250s & 76kg/hl) delivered to the North West in November 2021 was quoted at £255.50/t, up £3.50/t from a week earlier. The latest price equates to a £53.00/t premium over Nov-21 futures. It is also the highest UK bread wheat price reported since late 2012.

Feed barley (delivered E. Anglia, Nov-21) was £188.50/t last week, up £4.50/t. This was £13.00/t below feed wheat (same delivery), compared to a £16.50/t discount on 30 September.

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Rapeseed focus​

Rapeseed prices continued to surge last week, supported by strong demand and the continued tight outlook. Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-21) gained €23.25/t, Friday to Friday, closing on 8 October at €676.50/t.

UK markets followed the trends seen in the European market, although trade remains exceedingly thin once more. Rapeseed delivered Erith (May-22) was quoted at £578.00/t, up £25.00/t on the previous week.

Strong fundamental support in vegetable oil market, is a key underlying feature of the rapeseed market.

With Northern Hemisphere crops tight, attention is on developments in the Southern Hemisphere. In the week to 6 October, conditions in Australia were positive with improved rainfall. Australia is forecast for a 5.0Mt crop, an 11% increase on the year.

For 2022/23, Stratégie Grains, estimate a 7% rise in planted area for the EU, to 5.6Mha. It is worth noting that this would be in line with the five-year average (5.6Mha).

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-11-october-2021

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Monday 18 October

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UK grain markets

UK wheat prices tracked up with Paris wheat futures last week. The Nov-21 UK feed wheat futures contract gained £6.25/t, closing on Friday at £208.50/t.

As highlighted last week, the UK production figures were published provisionally on Monday. Further data published on Thursday highlights where challenges in production were felt most. Lower yields are highlighted in the South and East of England, outweighing stronger yields in the North and in Scotland.

UK trade data to August was published last week. Imports of both wheat and maize are off to a strong start, with 449Kt of wheat (exc. durum) imported and 242Kt of maize. Wheat imports are 68Kt ahead of the same point last season. This likely reflects the tight stocks position in the UK at the start of this season.

UK delivered prices followed the trends seen in futures markets. Last week no milling wheat prices were published in the AHDB delivered cereals survey. This reflected the difficulties in pricing domestic milling wheat, with quality challenging.

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Rapeseed focus

Paris futures (Nov-21) gained €5.00/t on the week (Friday to Friday), to close at €672.50/t. This is despite sharp falls mid-week on the larger global oilseed supply (more above). Gains at the end of the week followed US price rebounds. Prices were readjusting following the USDA WASDE with further support from speculative trading.

UK delivered rapeseed prices (Nov-21) were quoted at £567.50/t into Erith, on Friday. Delivered prices for May-22 (into Erith) were down £5.00/t on the week, at £573.00/t. Prices fell in line with Paris rapeseed futures, at the time of the survey. Paris rapeseed futures then closed higher on Friday.

Defra released their provisional crop production figures for harvest 2021. The rapeseed crop was the smallest in 32 years. At 977Kt, the crop is 6% below harvest 2020. A 20% fall in area for harvest 2021, was in part offset by increased yields on the year (provisionally at 3.2t/ha for 2021).


Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-18-october-2021

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Monday 25 October

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UK focus​

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-21) slipped last week to close Friday at £206.65/t, but remains £4.40/t higher across the fortnight.

Physical prices saw a similar pattern with feed wheat delivered into Avonrange (November 2021 delivery) dropping £0.50/t across the week, but still up £3.00/t across the fortnight. Bread wheat prices have gained much more across the fortnight. Quoted at £255.50/t for November delivery into Northampton last Thursday, this is up £11.00/t from two weeks prior.

The UK market is relatively volatile and often quotes into our delivered cereals survey don’t meet the data validation criteria that we have in place. In some cases, we have seen spreads of more than £10/t between the high and low quotes. Producing a price from such a range would skew the market in one direction or another, leaving prices unable to be published.

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Rapeseed focus​

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-21) followed a similar pattern to soyabeans with support at the start of the week, followed by slight pressure. However, the contract closed Friday at €674.50/t, gaining €2.00/t across the week.

Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Nov-21) was quoted at £576.50/t, gaining £9.00/t on the Friday before.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-25-october-2021

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Monday 01 November 2021

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UK grain markets

UK feed wheat futures followed the global market higher last week (Friday – Friday). The May-22 contract closed at its highest price yet, on several days during the week and again on Friday.

UK wheat supply and demand is again relatively tight in 2021/22, despite a larger crop. A 14% rise in demand year on year offsets the greater supply. AHDB forecasts both higher animal feed demand and increased human and industrial (H&I) demand, including from the bioethanol sector.

AHDB also estimates the UK barley balance to be 11% tighter than last season at 2.0Mt, due to the smaller crop. This is despite a drop in animal feed demand, linked to the smaller price discount to wheat. Feed barley delivered to East Anglia in December was quoted at £202.00/t last week, just £15.00/t less than feed wheat for the same delivery.

We were unable to publish delivered bread wheat prices last week. The variability in the quotes we received meant it was not possible to produce a representative price. Prices are being impacted by changes in the global market and ongoing domestic logistical issues.

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Rapeseed focus

Paris rapeseed (Feb-22) gained €8.50/t last week, to close at €678.25/t (£573.05/t) on Friday. Paris rapeseed gained support from rising palm oil prices.

Winnipeg canola futures (Nov-21) rallied last week as this contract comes to delivery. On Friday, the contract closed above the CAN$1,000/t mark. This may also be providing support to the Paris rapeseed contract.

Unfortunately, no UK delivered prices could be published last week due to insufficient quotes. Reportedly, physical trade is quiet.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-01-november-2021

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Monday 08 November 2021

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UK focus​

Last week saw delivered bread wheat prices into the North West at the highest in the history of the AHDB delivered cereals survey. For Dec-21 delivery (North West), the average bread wheat price was £285.00/t. This is the highest since December 2012, when the price for nearby (current +1month) delivery reached £263.00/t (North West).

These record prices are reflective of current global trends and UK tightness. The final results from the AHDB Cereal Quality Survey (CQS) show that just 20% of group 1 samples met a typical group 1 specification (specific weight≥76kg/hl, protein≥13.0%, HFN≥250s). Specific weight is the main issue, averaging 75.4kg/hl. This may mean that more wheat is required to meet flour demand this season.

Feed barley is continuing to track feed wheat. The delivered survey quoted feed barley delivered into East Anglia (Nov-21) at £205.00/t, £13.50/t below feed wheat. Earlier in the season the discount was up to £26.50/t.

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Rapeseed focus​

Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) closed on Friday at €664.00/t, up €2.50/t (0.38%) across the week. The UK delivered price (into Erith, May-22) was quoted at £603.50/t. For harvest-22, delivery into Erith was quoted at £500.00/t.

Sterling weakened (-1.39%) against the Euro week-on-week, helping keep domestic prices supported. Trading closed last Friday at £1 = €1.167.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-08-november-2021

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https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
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UK focus​

UK feed wheat futures (May-22) climbed £7.40/t last week, to close on Friday at £229.40/t.

For UK delivered prices, feed wheat delivered into East Anglia (Dec-21) was up £3.50/t to £224.00/t. Feed barley delivered into Avonmouth (Dec-21) was up £4.00/t to £214.50/t, discounting feed wheat by £10.50/t into the same destination.

Bread wheat prices saw yet another week of gains. North West bread wheat (Feb-22) gained another £5.00/t, averaging £292.50/t. This is perhaps unsurprising, with Paris milling wheat futures climbing and the tight UK supply of group 1 milling wheat.

September trade data is now available. Total wheat imports for 2021/22 season to date (Jul-Sept) are now at 626.92Kt including durum, down 16% from same period last year.

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Rapeseed focus​

Gains in soyabeans has added the continuous bullish spur into rapeseed. Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) closed Friday at €681.25/t, gaining €17.25/t across the week.

Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Dec-21) was quoted at £609.50/t on Friday, gaining £11.00/t across the week. Harvest-22 for Erith was quoted at £499.00/t, down £1.00/t across the week.

Gains on our 2021/22 domestic market were limited as sterling strengthened (+0.46%) against the Euro to close Friday at £1 = €1.1724.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-15-november-2021

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https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 22 November 2021

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UK grain markets

UK feed wheat prices have been strong in recent weeks; with new-crop (Nov-22) closing Friday at another contract high (£205.00/t). Old-crop (May-22) also reached new highs on Friday closing at £233.50/t, up another £4.10/t on the week. This is a record high for all ICE UK feed wheat futures contracts, not just for the May-22 contract.

AHDB’s Early Bird Survey of plantings and planting intentions gives a first insight into harvest 2022. Unsurprisingly intentions suggest a strong continuation of winter cropping, with wheat exceeding the ten-year average planted area at 1.81Mha.

The intended total barley area for harvest-22 is 1.10Mha. This is marginally down from the 2021 harvest and sees a further swing back towards winter barley. The current reduction in the spring barley area could change when spring planting begins. If strong prices continue, coupled with relatively low fertiliser requirements, intentions may shift to a larger than initially intended area.

The oat area is also anticipated to drop back (5%) to 189Kha, just above the five-year average.

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Rapeseed focus

UK delivered rapeseed prices fell sharply last week following the fall in Paris rapeseed futures and a rise in sterling against the euro. Last week, sterling rose 1.6% against the euro to £1 = €1.1909, the highest level since February 2020 (Refinitiv).

AHDB’s Early Bird Survey showed the UK rapeseed area could rise to 345Kha for harvest 2022. This is up 13% from 2021, likely incentivised by current strong prices. But, this increase is not as big as many may have expected. It is still the second lowest OSR area since 1989 (last year being the lowest). This is most likely a reflection of both high input costs and the ongoing battle against Cabbage Stem Flea Beetle.

The German winter rapeseed area could rise 4-9% for 2022, according to the industry association UFOP. At 1.03 -1.08 Mha, the area would be the biggest since 2018. A larger area for Europe’s top rapeseed grower gives more confidence that global production will recover for 2022/23.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-22-november-2021

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https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 29 November 2021

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UK grain markets

UK feed wheat futures (May-22) rose last week, following the trend set by global prices.

Domestic wheat supply and demand remains tight. The latest estimates show an even tighter picture than forecast last month due to lower imports, while demand remains robust. UK maize imports are also forecast to fall 26% from last season to 2.12Mt. Currently, import pricing of Black Sea maize is not competitive against domestic cereals. The estimates also included the first projections for oats and updated projections for barley.

Sterling weakened against both the euro and US dollar last week. On Friday £1 was worth €1.1792 and $1.3340 (Refinitiv). While the pound is still relatively high against the euro, it fell to its lowest level against the dollar for 12 months on Thursday. Weaker sterling can often mean support for UK prices relative to global or European levels.

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Rapeseed focus

It was a volatile week for Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) last week. They closed Friday at €648.50/t, down €3.50/t across the week, but losing €14.75/t on Friday’s trading. Gains earlier in the week partially compensated for this loss.

Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Dec-21) was quoted at £579.00/t, down £1.50/t across the week. Meanwhile, harvest-22 delivery into Erith was quoted at £480.00/t, with no comparison to last week.

The week-on-week loss was softened on our domestic market as sterling weakened (-1.0%) against the euro across the week. Friday’s close was £1 = €1.1792 (Refinitiv).


Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-29-november-2021

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https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 

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Written by Charlotte Cunningham from CPM Magazine

JCB has launched new Fastrac 4000 and 8000 Series tractors with an all-new electronics infrastructure which is claimed to deliver higher levels of performance. According to JCB, the new Fastrac iCon operator environment has three key features: iConfigure – creating a bespoke control experience for every operator iConnect – integrating advanced precision agriculture technology iControl – redefining operation through new driveline software The 175hp to 348hp (133kW to 260kW) Fastracs feature the new iCon armrest console and touch-screen display to provide flexibility in operator allocation and operator information, as well as a new transmission control strategy to enhance operator comfort and powertrain efficiency, says the manufacturer...
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