AHDB weekly market report

Monday 06 December 2021

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UK grain markets

UK feed wheat futures (May-22) closed Friday at £231.25/t, down £5.35/t week-on-week.

Delivered prices in the UK followed futures movements (Thursday to Thursday). Into Avonrange (Jan-22 delivery), feed wheat was down £3.00/t to £233.00/t and feed barley down £1.50/t to £223.00/t.

On Friday, we released our first crop condition report for the 2021/22 growing season. In November 2021, mild and settled weather lead to good crop establishment.

The latest AHDB human and industrial (H&I) and animal feed usage figures were also released last week. With many livestock sector’s margins under strain, compound feed demand is starting to feel the pressure.

Further sharp increases in fertiliser prices were confirmed for October, in the AHDB’s fertiliser price survey results. For the latest guidance on recommended nitrogen applications, follow this link.

There is also a nitrogen fertiliser adjustment calculator for cereals and oilseeds available on our website. For more information, sign up to the AHDB webinar ‘Mitigating high fertiliser prices’ on 16 December, using this link.


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Rapeseed focus

After a €29.75/t dip in the market (Friday-to-Tuesday), Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) closed just €0.50/t down Friday-to-Friday at €648.00/t (c.£551/t).

Initial drops followed the wider oilseed/oil complex on the back of increased concerns of the spread of the Omicron covid-19 variant.

On Friday, Statistics Canada released revised estimates for their 2021 harvest, which trimmed the countries canola production by 0.19Mt. Now pegged at 12.59Mt, it is the smallest crop since 2007. This adds further concerns for the current marketing year, already anticipated to be very tight.

Looking ahead to harvest 2022, Stratégie Grains has revised down (from the previous report) the EU rapeseed area by 30Kha, to 5.6Mha. 2021/22 production is forecast up 6% from harvest-21, to 17.98Mt.

In the UK, the first AHDB crop conditions report stated 78% of planted OSR crops are in good-excellent condition. A small proportion of crops failed during September due to dryness, but establishment was generally good. Growth continued well as October and November conditions were mostly favourable, resulting in fair canopies and leaf cover.

Domestic old-crop (harvest-21) prices recovered somewhat from the previous two weeks of losses. Delivered rapeseed into Erith (Dec-21 delivery) was quoted at £592.50/t, up £13.50/t from the previous week. Visit the delivered prices page on our website to find more prices.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-06-december-2021

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Monday 13 December 2021

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UK focus​

The UK followed global trends. The May-22 London feed wheat futures contract lost £3.45/t week-on-week, closing at £227.80/t. This is despite a £1.80/t rebound on Friday.

Thursday-to-Thursday, London futures (May-22) dropped £9.20/t and physical delivered prices followed a similar trend. For May-22 delivery, feed wheat into East Anglia experienced a £9.00/t drop, quoted at £228.00/t. Feed wheat delivered into Avonmouth (May-22 delivery) didn’t drop quite so much on the week (-£7.50/t) and was quoted at £229.50/t.

Bread wheat delivered into Northamptonshire (May-22 delivery) was quoted at £285.50/t, down £7.50/t from the week before. However, despite the weekly drop, the premium over feed wheat futures (May-22 contract) has extended. Last Thursday it calculated at £59.50/t versus £58.00/t the week before.

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Rapeseed focus​


Old crop rapeseed prices found support across last week as Brent crude oil (nearby) rebounded 7.5% to close Friday at $75.15/barrel.

Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) gained €16.75/t across the week, to close Friday at €664.75/t. New crop prices (Aug-22) closed at €553.50/t, down €1.50/t across the week.

Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Harvest-22) was quoted on Friday at £473.50/t, up £0.50/t across the week. A divergence in price is due to the Paris market easing on Friday afternoon after our survey was completed.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-13-december-2021

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https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 20 December 2021

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UK grain markets
UK prices followed the global trend lower last week. Prices picked up a bit on Friday, but this was not enough to offset the losses earlier in the week.

Delivered feed wheat prices for both old and new crop delivery generally fell in line with UK futures Thursday – Thursday. E.g., Nov-22 feed wheat into Fife/Edinburgh was down £5.50/t to £208.00/t. The Nov-22 futures fell £5.85/t over the same period.

However, old crop delivered bread wheat prices recorded slightly bigger falls. This is partly due to the uncertainty about demand following the introduction of tighter COVID-19 restrictions.

Defra’s final estimate of the 2021 UK wheat crop pegs the crop at 13.99Mt. This is down slightly from 14.02Mt estimated in October, but still well above last year’s crop. The barley and oat crop also shrink slightly from October due to smaller yields, down 147Kt to 6.96Mt and down 26Kt to 1.12Mt respectively.

These Defra results also allow us to revisit our Early Bird Survey of planting intentions for harvest 2022 at a regional level. Read more about the regional changes for wheat, barley and oats here.

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Rapeseed focus
Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) gained €4.50/t last week, to close on Friday at €669.25/t. Arguably, rapeseed gained on soyabean strength last week.

Delivered rapeseed prices into Erith (May-22) were quoted at £627.00/t on Friday. There is no week-on-week comparison available, though this price is higher than on 03 December.

Regional figures for the Early Bird Survey were released on Friday. High prices look to have boosted planting this year, with total expected area for 2022 at 359Kha. This is up 17% from last year, and up from initial estimates too.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-20-december-2021

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https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Tuesday 04 January 2021

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UK focus​

UK feed wheat futures (May-22) closed on Friday (31 Dec) at £224.50/t. This is a gain of £1.55/t from the last Market Report (17 Dec close).

How does this translate into delivered prices? The next update to UK delivered prices is due on 7 January 2022.

Latest HMRC trade data indicates UK wheat import pace slowed (up to October). Season-to-date (July to October) imports are now down 19% from last season. Why is this important? Because UK availability continues to look tight.

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Rapeseed focus​

Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) closed Friday (31 Dec) at €711.75/t, gaining €10.50/t across the week (24 Dec – 31 Dec). However, the contract closed yesterday at an all-time high of €728.50/t.

The May-22 contract has gained €27.25/t over the Christmas period (24 Dec – 03 Jan). In this same period, sterling has strengthened by 0.89% against the Euro. Trading closed yesterday at £1 = €1.1928. This strengthening in sterling could limit large gains on our domestic delivered market in comparison to the continental market.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-04-january-2021

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https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 17 January 2022
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UK grain markets
UK feed wheat futures (May-22) fell £7.75/t last week, to close at £210.75/t. This is the third consecutive week of falls on this contract, following global wheat contracts down last week. The Nov-22 contract only fell £0.50/t over this same period, to close on Friday at £191.05/t.

Old-crop UK delivered prices, followed UK feed wheat futures down; the May-22 contract dropped £4.45/t Thursday to Thursday.

Feed wheat (Jan-22 delivery) into East Anglia fell £4.50/t, quoted at £209.50/t (average) on Thursday. Whereas East Anglian feed wheat for harvest delivery fell £3.00/t last week to £184.00/t on Thursday.

Bread wheat delivered into the North West (Jan-22) fell £5.50/t week-on-week to £277.00/t.

The latest AHDB cereal usage data is now available up to November for GB animal feed production and UK human and industrial cereal usage.

HMRC UK trade data is also available on the AHDB website, to the end of November.
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Rapeseed focus
Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) jumped €18.25/t on Friday, but this was not enough to negate the losses in the previous sessions. From Friday to Friday the contract lost €40.75/t, to close the week at €717.75/t.

This said, the supply and demand picture remains very tight. The USDA increased global production slightly (+0.92Mt), but also raised global consumption estimates (+1.14Mt). Using the latest figures, global rapeseed stocks-to-use is at 5.7%, and 5.1% for major exporters. The 5-year average (2016/17 to 2020/21) for major exporters stocks-to-use is 14.0%.

Therefore, despite a potential rebound in production for 2022/23, the balance sheet will open with tight stocks.

New-crop domestic rapeseed prices lost ground last week. Harvest-22 delivery into Erith was quoted at £475.00/t, down from £480.00/t the previous week. This is still £10.50/t higher than quoted in the pre-Christmas survey (17 Dec) though.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-17-january-2022

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https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 24 January 2022

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UK grain markets
UK feed wheat futures recovered nearly all of the previous week’s losses last week. The May-22 contract rose £7.50/t between 14 and 21 January to £218.25/t. This is just £0.25/t below the price on Friday 7 January.

Domestic trade levels reportedly slowed towards the end of the week because of uncertainty in the global market.

Ahead of the release of the next estimates of UK supply and demand this Thursday (27 January), the AHDB Cross Sector Working Group met last Thursday. The slides discussed can be found here. To find out more or if you are interested in joining the group, please email [email protected].

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Rapeseed focus
Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) closed down last week by €20.25/t to €697.50/t on technical trading. However, the Nov-22 contract gained last week. This contract increased €19.00/t, closing on Friday at €604.50/t.

New crop UK delivered prices followed futures movement (Nov-22) up. On Friday, delivery into Erith (Harvest/August 22) was up £27.50/t to £502.50/t.


Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here -
https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-24-january-2022

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https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 31 January 2022
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UK grain markets
Old crop (May-22) UK feed wheat futures followed global prices last week. Overall, the May-22 contract gained £2.75/t Friday-Friday. However, prices were volatile. The May-22 contract closed as high as £228.00/t on Tuesday, before dropping back to £219.00/t on Thursday and ending Friday at £221.00/t.

On a delivered basis, bread wheat continues to hold very high premiums over the May-22 futures. North West bread wheat was reported at £70.00/t over the May-22 futures last week. A year ago, May-21 delivery was £37.50/t over the May-21 futures and two years ago, the May-20 delivered premium to May-20 futures was £33.05/t.

Volatility in the global market reportedly held back traded volumes for all wheat again.

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Rapeseed focus
All the support for soyabeans and palm oil filtered into rapeseed prices. Paris rapeseed futures (Aug-22) closed Friday at €615.75/t, gaining €7.25/t across the week. The domestic delivered market followed. Rapeseed delivered (into Erith, hvst-22) was quoted at £510.50/t last Friday, gaining £8.00/t from 21 January.

The latest Stratégie Grains oilseed report revised up EU-27 rapeseed output by 200Kt on last month’s report. EU production for 2022 is now estimated at 18.2Mt, a 7.4% increase on 2021.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-31-january-2022

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https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 07 February 2022
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UK grain markets
Both old crop (May-22) and new crop (Nov-22) UK feed wheat futures fell last week, following the global market.

Delivered feed wheat prices followed suit (Thu-Thu). The premium for old crop bread wheat over May-22 futures also eased slightly, as flour millers reportedly increased their supply coverage. On Thursday, bread wheat delivered to the North West (May-22) was £68.00/t more than the May-22 futures. This is down from £70.00/t a week earlier.

The latest cereal usage statistics show that brewers, maltsters, and distillers used 165Kt of barley in December. This is the highest monthly volume of barley so far this season and is 21% more than December 2020. We’ll need to see if the trend continues, but the numbers are encouraging given the tightening of COVID restrictions late last year.

In December, GB compounders used more wheat and oats, but less barley and maize in their rations than a year ago. This continues the trend of the first five months of this season (Jul-Nov).

UK oat millers used 122Kt of oats from October – December 2021, down 11% from the same period in 2020.

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Rapeseed focus
Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) lost ground last week (-€14.00/t or 2.0%) to close Friday at €696.50/t. The contract is currently very volatile, with trading occurring in a €21.50/t range on Friday.

The euro strengthened 2.7% from Friday to Friday against the US dollar and 1.7% against sterling (Refintiv). When the euro strengthens it often makes commodities (from Europe) less competitive on a global market and pressures prices.

Because the pound weakened against the euro, the drop in rapeseed futures (May-22) was softer in pound terms, dropping £1.39/t or 0.2%.

New crop futures (Nov-22) are also trading in a large range, with Friday’s trade in a €11.00/t range. It closed the week at €600.00/t, down €13.00/t (2.1%) from the previous Friday’s close. Similar to old crop, in pound terms the contract only lost 0.4% or £1.98/t.

Physical delivered prices were quoted higher than a week before (28 Jan) for harvest delivery, but it is key to note that the survey was undertaken in the middle of the trading day.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-07-february-2022

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https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 14 February 2022
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UK focus​

UK feed wheat futures followed trends in global markets. Friday saw a jump up in both May-22 and Nov-22 values, closing the week at £221.05/t and £201.15/t respectively.

Despite a week-on-week price rise for delivered bread wheat into the North West, the premium over May-22 futures squeezed further (May delivery). The premium was £66.50/t over feed wheat futures on Thursday (10 Feb) versus £68.00/t the week before.

The survey quoted a new crop (Nov-22) bread wheat price for the first time this year in Friday’s report. November delivery of bread wheat into Northampton averaged £238.00/t, or c.£38.00/t over futures. The premium at the same point last year (versus Nov-21 futures) was just £27.00/t. This indicates some nervousness for bread wheat availability next marketing year.

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Rapeseed focus​

Paris rapeseed futures (Aug-22) closed Friday at €619.00/t, gaining €16.00/t across the week. UK delivered rapeseed (into Erith, hvst-22) was quoted at £515.00/t, gaining £1.00/t across the week.

UK prices did not encapsulating the same gains as Paris futures because our delivered survey was conducted late morning on Friday and Paris rapeseed futures were volatile throughout the day. The Aug-22 futures contract traded in a €9.25/t range.

Further to that, Sterling strengthened (+1.11%) against the Euro across the week, closing Friday at £1 = €1.1941.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-14-february-2022

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https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 21 February 2022
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UK grain markets
UK feed wheat futures gained last week (Fri-Fri) following the global trend, though new crop prices rose more than old crop prices. The May-22 contract gained £1.45/t to end Friday at £222.50/t, while the Nov-22 contract rose £2.85/t over the week to £204.00/t.

However, the uncertainty in the global market reportedly slowed trading, as it made managing risk through hedging more difficult.

Old crop delivered bread wheat premiums over May-22 futures continued to ease last week as mills acquired more cover. It also looks like UK prices are capped by the cost of importing grain. For example, on Thursday 17 February, bread wheat delivered to the Northwest in May-22 was £283.00/t. This equated to a premium of £65.00/t over May-22 futures, down from £66.50/t on 10 February and down from a peak of £70.00/t on 27 January.

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Rapeseed focus
Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) gained €3.25/t last week, to close on Friday at €620.00/t. The global rapeseed supply and demand balance remains tight, and the market is sensitive to new news on availability. As a result, prices are following the Black Sea tensions closely and have seen volatility in recent weeks.

UK delivered prices followed Paris futures prices last week. On Friday, rapeseed into Erith for harvest delivery was up £0.50/t from 11 February to £515.50/t. For delivery into Erith in Nov-22, quotes on Friday were up £1.00/t on the week, to £524.50/t.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-21-february-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report directly into your e-mail inbox here -
https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 28 February 2022

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UK focus​

UK feed wheat futures soared on Thursday, following news of the invasion. Prices eased back on Friday, but still posted large weekly gains.

The volatility in world markets meant traded volumes were very limited last week and there was a wide range in quoted values. This meant we could only publish very limited delivered prices last week.

Although premiums for delivered bread wheat over May-22 futures eased in past weeks, the availability of UK bread wheat with a 13% protein content also slowed. This could mean the volume of high protein imports requirements required stays higher than the price alone might suggest. Given the sharp global price rises and international trade situation, this requirement will be very challenging for our industry.

The rise in global crude oil and natural gas is also likely to mean higher costs and challenges for UK growers who have not yet bought or taken full delivery of key inputs. AHDB has advice on dealing with higher nitrogen fertiliser costs here.

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Rapeseed focus​

Paris rapeseed futures (Aug-22) closed Friday at €638.00/t, gaining €16.75/t across the week. There was large volatility as the August contract closed at a contract high last Thursday at €666.75/t. The contract has traded as high as €687.25/t this morning (11:00 GMT).

Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Aug-22) was quoted at £542.50/t last Friday, gaining £27.00/t across the week. The survey was conducted between 11:00 GMT and midday on Friday. The delivered prices were indication of market conditions at this time, but the prices may have moved considerably since then. Sterling weakening against the euro (-0.78%) across the week would have helped support domestic prices across the week. Trading closed Friday at £1 = €1.1905.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-28-february-2022

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https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 07 March 2022

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UK focus​

UK feed wheat futures (May-22) followed global markets upwards. The contract closed Friday (04-Mar) at £285.00/t after trading as high as £300/t earlier in the day. At Friday’s close, the contract was up £54.00/t (23.4%) from the previous Friday. It has continued to climb this morning, trading at £314.00/t by 12 noon (07-Mar), but volumes are low at just 50 contracts.

The new-crop (Nov-22) contract also closed higher on the week (+£30.00/t, 14.4%), at £238.00/t. Also gaining more this morning, trading at £258.00/t by 12 noon (180 contracts traded).

Physical trade remains relatively sparse, and markets are so volatile that representative prices are difficult to come by.

In the AHDB’s delivered survey on Thursday, feed wheat for November-22 delivery into East Anglia averaged £231.50/t up £30.50/t from two weeks before but followed futures market moves.

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Rapeseed focus​


New-crop Paris rapeseed futures (Aug-22) closed Friday at €704.75/t, gaining €66.75/t across the week. Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Hvst-22) was quoted at £577.50/t on Friday, gaining £35.00/t across the week.

Gains in our domestic market were suppressed compared to Paris as Sterling strengthened (+1.7%) against the Euro to close Friday at £1 = €1.2109.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-07-march-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report directly into your e-mail inbox here -
https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 21 March 2022

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UK focus​

UK feed wheat futures (May-22) saw volatility last week, following global market reactions to the Russian and Ukrainian conflict. The contract closed on Friday at £293.00/t, down £5.00/t from last Friday after some gains mid-week. There were relatively low volumes of contracts traded last week, with such high prices.

New-crop UK wheat futures (Nov-22) closed on Friday at £250.00/t, down £0.50/t week on week. Though volatility saw prices close at £255.00/t on Tuesday. The contract is trading up at £255.50/t today (13:00 GMT).

UK delivered prices followed futures movements (Thurs to Thurs). Feed wheat into East Anglia (March delivery) increased £6.50/t to be quoted at £300.00/t. New crop (Nov-22) was quoted at £251.00/t for this location.

New-crop bread wheat prices were also available last week. Northamptonshire bread wheat (for Nov-22 delivery) was quoted at £290.50/t.

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Rapeseed focus​

Paris rapeseed futures (Aug-22) closed Friday at €753.00/t, down €6.00/t across the week. Following market movements, UK delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Aug-22) was quoted Friday at £625.50/t. This is down £8.50/t across the week.

In foreign exchange, sterling weakened (-0.2%) against the Euro across to week. Closing Friday trade at £1 = €1.1919.

Please note that Friday’s delivered rapeseed survey was conducted around mid-morning therefore price movements may not reflect futures market close due to the rapidly changing market.


Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-21-march-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report directly into your e-mail inbox here -
https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 28 March 2022
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UK focus
UK feed wheat futures continued their upwards trend. The May-22 contract settled at £316.00/t on Friday, up £23.00/t from the previous week and another record high. The Nov-22 contract also reached a new record settling at £268.55/t. It is key to note volumes traded remain relatively low.

Physical domestic prices also rose last week. Delivered feed wheat into Avonrange (May delivery) gained £11.50/t on the week, quoted at £316.00/t as at Thursdays close. This is up £115.00/t compared to the same time last year. Similarly, feed barley delivered into East Anglia (May delivery), quoted at £303.00/t is up £12.00/t on the week but £140.00/t higher than a year before.

The gains extended slightly for bread wheat. May delivery in the North West, bread wheat was quoted at £365.50/t (£55.00/t over futures), up £15.00/t from the week before.

Last week, AHDB 2021/22 UK cereals supply and demand updates were published. Despite an increase in the wheat balance estimate, it remains the third tightest on record. The barley balance is also tight. Currently estimated at 1.8Mt, this is expected to be the tightest barley balance since 2012/13.

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Rapeseed focus​

Paris rapeseed (May-22) gained €31.50/t (3.4%) last week, to close at €969.25/t. Winnipeg canola (May-22) also gained last week, though to a lesser extent (up 1.3%).

The market remains very volatile. This is likely to continue as we move towards April, and markets focus on how much of the Ukrainian sunflower crop manages to be planted.

On Friday, we were unable to publish any delivered rapeseed prices due to insufficient quotes received. At a time with such price volatility, we are committed to providing both timely and accurate pricing information.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-28-march-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report directly into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 04 April 2022
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UK grains focus​

UK feed wheat futures slipped last week. The May-22 contract ended the week back £12.80/t, to £303.20/t. Nov-22 also slid, down £10.00/t, to £258.55/t (Fri 25 Mar – Fri 01 Apr).
Physical domestic prices followed this move down, with delivered feed wheat (Avonmouth, May-22 delivery) back £4.00/t on the week, to £312.00/t. However, trading is reportedly muted as we head into the last quarter of the season. Concerns remain for the end of the season, should the UK new crop be delayed coming online. Trading remains very thin for feed barley too, with no prices being able to be published last week.

Price declines were more subtle for bread wheat deliveries, with April delivery into the North West back £2.50/t on the week, to £362.00/t.

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Rapeseed focus​

Old-crop Paris rapeseed futures followed wider oil/oilseed markets down last week. However, the global supply picture remains tight for 2021/22. Stratégie Grains have reduced their estimate for EU27 rapeseed closing stocks in its latest report to 0.7Mt.

Despite slipping oil prices, potential sunoil shortages are likely to shift EU demand to rape oil. Rape oil is already in demand by the industrial sector and further demand by the food industry will support rape oil prices and in turn seed prices.

The latest AHDB crop development report shows that oilseed rape for harvest-22 is mostly (64%) in good-excellent condition. However, conditions have deteriorated somewhat since November when 78% of the crop was deemed good-excellent.

New-crop rapeseed prices have seen some support. The Nov-22 Paris rapeseed futures contract gained €15.25/t from Friday-Friday. There is no week-on-week comparison for delivered rapeseed into Erith (November delivery) but quoted at £669.50/t, it is up £38.00/t from the fortnight before. This is also up 71% (£278.50/t) year-on-year.


Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-04-april-2022
Subscribe to receive Market Report directly into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 11 April 2022
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UK focus​

UK feed wheat continued to follow global market movements last week. The May-22 futures contract gained £4.30/t last week, to close on Friday at £307.50/t. The new crop contract (Nov-22) gained £16.95/t last week, to close at £275.50/t. This shows the new-crop prices starting to move closer to old-crop prices, as new season supplies come into focus.

Physical UK prices for feed wheat (delivered into East Anglia, May-22) fell £2.00/t to be quoted as £307.00/t on Thursday. This followed downward market movement (Thursday to Thursday).

North West bread wheat prices (Apr-22 delivery) fell £6.00/t last week, to be quoted at £356.00/t on Thursday.

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Rapeseed focus​

Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) closed Friday at €961.00/t, gaining €14.25/t across the week.
Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, May-22) was quoted Friday at £820.50/t, gaining £13.50/t from the previous Friday. New crop (into Erith, Nov-22) over the same period gained £22.50/t, to be quoted at £692.00/t on Friday.

There is forecast for some heavy snow in canola growing areas of Canada in the coming few days. This is underpinning prices, as it could delay plantings.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-11-april-2022
Subscribe to receive Market Report directly into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Tuesday 19 April 2022

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UK focus​

Nearby UK feed wheat futures reached record high’s last week, the May-22 contract closing on Tuesday and Wednesday at £322.00/t. Although prices softened on Thursday to £319.80/t, ahead of the long holiday weekend, they are currently trading back up at £322.00/t (as at 11am). The Nov-22 contract saw the same movement, closing the working week at £291.25/t, back £1.75/t from Wednesday’s highs. At 11am today, it is trading back at £294.00/t.

Although trading was reportedly thin on the ground, physical prices recorded another jump last week. Feed wheat (delivered into East Anglia, Apr-22) was quoted at £326.50/t, up £20.50/t (Thursday – Wednesday). New crop delivered prices also rose, with harvest-22 delivery to East Anglia up £25.00/t over the same period, at £290.50/t.

North West bread wheat prices (Apr-22 delivery) followed suit, up £22.50/t Thursday – Wednesday, to £378.50/t.


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Rapeseed focus​

With the European market closed on Friday, Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) closed Thursday at €1,004.00/t, gaining €43.00/t across the week.

New crop futures (Aug-22) closed at €860.25/t gaining €36.00/t over the same period. In the AHDB delivered survey oilseed rape (into Erith, Aug-22) was quoted at £707.50/t with no comparison across the week.

Canola regions in Canada had weekend snowstorms, raising concerns about planting delays. Eyes are currently on plantings in Canada for replenishing global rapeseed stocks going into the 2022/23 marketing year.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-19-april-2022
Subscribe to receive Market Report directly into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 

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Monday 25 April 2022

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UK grain markets

The new crop discount for UK feed wheat continues to diminish. Old crop (May-22) prices ended the week at a contract high of £322.00/t, up £2.20/t on the week. However, gains were slightly reversed for new crop, the Nov-22 contract softened slightly by £3.65/t on the week, closing Friday at £287.60/t.

The UK crop continues to develop well, and next week sees the publication of the next AHDB crop condition report. This will cover the period to the end of April.

Trading for UK old crop remains very thin on the ground, with only two old crop bread wheat prices being able to be reported in last week’s AHDB delivered survey. Megan also explained last Thursday how this volatile and illiquid market has limited the volume of prices AHDB can report.

Physical prices for new crop were more available and followed global markets down during the week. Delivered feed wheat for harvest (East Anglia, Aug-22) was back £10.00/t on the week, quoted at £280.50/t on Thursday.

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Rapeseed focus

Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) gained €77.25/t (Thurs to Fri) last week, to close at €1,081.25/t on Friday. New-crop futures (Nov-22) gained €24.25/t (Thurs to Fri), to close at €851.50/t.

On the new-crop contract, most of these gains were made on Friday following Indonesia’s palm oil export ban.

Please note that AHDB were unable to publish delivered rapeseed prices last week, due to insufficient quotes to calculate the published average.

The ‘Principal field crop areas report’ for Canadian plantings is due this week (26 April).

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-25-april-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report directly into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Tuesday 03 May 2022

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UK focus​

UK feed wheat futures (May-22) gained £7.50/t last week, to close on Friday at £329.50/t. New-crop futures (Nov-22) gained £11.55/t to close on Friday at £299.15/t. UK prices follow global movements closely. But on Friday we saw some profit taking ahead of the long weekend.
Delivered prices followed global movement Thurs to Thurs. Though a lack of selling and price volatility make publishing accurate prices more challenging.

Feed wheat prices (Nov-22, delivery to Avonmouth) gained £20.00/t to be quoted on Thursday at £306.00/t. We also published a feed barley price (May-22, delivery to Yorkshire) at £326.00/t.

New-crop bread wheat (Nov-22, delivery to Northamptonshire) was quoted on Thursday at £347.00/t.
The latest crop condition report for UK crops as at 27 April 2022, is now available on the AHDB website.

If you missed the Spring Grain Market Outlook last week, here is a roundup and a link to the recording. Millie also detailed a follow up grains market outlook in grain market daily.

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Rapeseed focus​

Paris rapeseed new crop futures (Nov-22) closed at €842.75/t, down €8.75/t across the week.

Yesterday new crop futures (Nov-22) closed down €40.50/t across the day to close at €802.25/t. New crop futures were pressured due to an improved outlook for EU-27 oilseed production. Stratégie grains oilseed report sharply increased EU-27 sunflower seed harvest to be at 10.7Mt, up from 10.2Mt reported the month before. Reasons for this increase were due to the EU giving authorisation to use fallow land to compensate for potential shortages from Black Sea.

Delivered rapeseed (Into Erith, Hvst-22) was quoted at £743.00/t on Friday, with no comparison on the week. While the November-22 delivery, to same destination, was quoted at £748.00/t.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-03-may-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report directly into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 09 May 2022

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UK grain markets

UK feed wheat (May-22) reached a record high last Thursday, closing at £340.25/t. However, Friday saw some profit taking and the contract closed the week at £335.00/t. This is up £5.50/t on the week. The new-crop contract (Nov-22) gained £19.60/t last week, to close on Friday at £318.75/t.
UK delivered prices remain supported by tight global supply. On Thursday, East Anglia feed wheat (July delivery) was quoted £336.00/t. New-crop feed wheat prices for the same destination (Harvest delivery) were quoted at £311.00/t.

Bread wheat prices into North West (November delivery) were quoted on Thursday at £380.50/t.

As at the end-February, 3.85Mt of wheat was stored on farm in England and Wales according to the latest Defra stocks survey (up 45% on the year). Total wheat stocks held by merchants, ports, and co-ops at the end of February was at 1.28Mt (down 12% on the year), according to latest AHDB data. On farm barley stocks were at 767Kt (down 35% on the year), with the amount being held by merchant, ports, and co-ops at 786Kt (down 18% on the year).

The latest cereal usage data for GB animal feed and UK human and industrial sectors is now available.

Also released last week, we have produced some insightful analysis on the cost to dry grain, and strategies for nitrogen fertiliser application considering the rising cost of inputs.


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Rapeseed focus

Paris new crop (Nov-22) rapeseed futures closed the week at €828.25/t, down €14.50/t Friday to Friday. Prices had fallen sharply on Monday, following news of an improved outlook for the EU crop and an increase in the EU sunflower area, but then climbed during the week before taking a breath on Friday.

The release of a below expected Canadian canola (rapeseed) stocks level, and dry, hot weather forecast for the EU, lent support during the week to the oilseed. Statistics Canada pegged the Canadian stocks figures, as at 31 Mar, at 3.9Mt, down 49% from Mar 2021 levels and 64% from Mar 2020 volumes.

Delivered rapeseed (Erith, Nov-22) was quoted at £719.00/t on Friday, down £29.00/t from the previous Friday.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-09-may-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report directly into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 

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Written by Charlotte Cunningham from CPM Magazine

JCB has launched new Fastrac 4000 and 8000 Series tractors with an all-new electronics infrastructure which is claimed to deliver higher levels of performance. According to JCB, the new Fastrac iCon operator environment has three key features: iConfigure – creating a bespoke control experience for every operator iConnect – integrating advanced precision agriculture technology iControl – redefining operation through new driveline software The 175hp to 348hp (133kW to 260kW) Fastracs feature the new iCon armrest console and touch-screen display to provide flexibility in operator allocation and operator information, as well as a new transmission control strategy to enhance operator comfort and powertrain efficiency, says the manufacturer...
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