AHDB weekly market report

Monday 16 May 2022

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UK focus​

UK feed wheat futures continue to follow global movements. The May-22 contract gained £16.80/t last week, to close on Friday at £351.80/t. The new crop contract (Nov-22) gained £17.55/t last week, to close at £336.30/t. We can see new-crop prices are moving up towards old-crop levels. This morning, the Nov-22 contract was trading at £349.00/t (12:00BST) on the Indian export news.

UK delivered prices continue to follow futures market movements. On Thursday, feed wheat into East Anglia (Jul delivery) gained £7.50/t (Thurs to Thurs) to be quoted at £343.50/t. To this same destination, Nov-22 gained £22.00/t (Thurs to Thurs) to be quoted at £337.50/t.

Bread wheat prices delivered into Northamptonshire (Nov-22) gained £19.00/t last week, to be quoted at £383.00/t.

On Friday, Vikki used results from different nitrogen application strategies to analyse scenario outcomes for UK production for harvest 22. To read the full report, use this link.

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Rapeseed focus​

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed Friday at €857.50/t, gaining €29.25/t across the week.

Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Nov-22) was quoted Friday at £731.00/t, gaining £12.00/t across the week.

Gains on our domestic market were limited across the week due to sterling strengthening against the euro to close Friday at £1 = €1.1773.
 
Monday 23 May 2022

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UK grain markets

UK feed wheat futures (May-22) closed on Friday at £336.50/t. This is down £15.30/t from last Friday. The new-crop futures (Nov-22) closed on Friday at £331.00/t, down £5.30/t. Though both contracts reached record highs on Monday following the Indian export ban.

New-crop futures have narrowed closely to old-crop prices, falling less week-on-week. The fundamental support remains for next season, considering the war between Russia and Ukraine, and weather issues causing concern to global harvest 22 crop sizes.

UK delivered prices continue to follow global market movements. East Anglia feed wheat, for Nov-22 delivery, fell £6.50/t last week (Thurs-Thurs) to be quoted at £331.00/t on Thursday.

Bread wheat prices for Nov-22 to London/Essex were quoted at £374.00/t on Thursday.

Last week, two key analysis pieces were produced. The first looking at gross margins for harvests’ 22 and 23. The second piece explored the impact on harvest 2023 from high input costs.

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Rapeseed focus

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed Friday at €821.00/t, down €36.50/t across the week. Domestically, delivered rapeseed (Into Erith, Hvst-22) was quoted Friday at £701.50/t, down £23.00/t across the week. For the same delivery, November was quoted at £707.50/t, down £23.50/t across the week.

Currently there isn’t any major weather concerns in the Canadian Prairies where canola (rapeseed) plantings are on-going. Forecasts show that in the next week that mean temperatures remain stable, with light rains forecast over the next 7 days in the Canadian prairies.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-23-may-2022

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https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 30 May 2022
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UK grain markets
Nearby UK feed wheat futures (Jul-22) closed Friday at £314.75/t, a drop of £19.95/t on the previous week. The new crop contract (Nov-22) was down £6.75/t over the same period, closing at £324.25/t on Friday. Both contracts followed global grain prices down, on the news that a deal could be struck with Russia to allow grain exports out of Ukraine.

UK delivered prices followed suit. Feed wheat into East Anglia (Nov-22 delivery) fell £9.50/t last week (Thurs-Thurs) to £321.50/t. Bread wheat prices into the North West, for November delivery were pegged at £389.00/t, with no weekly comparison available.

Last week’s latest UK supply and demand estimates pointed to closing wheat stocks revised upwards, following stronger import pace, coupled with relatively stable demand and exports. However, carry out stocks for barley are set to be the lowest level for nearly a decade, with tight domestic availability, combined with stronger domestic consumption and exports factoring. Read the full release here.

The latest AHDB crop condition report, released on Friday, showed promising yield prospects for winter crops, following welcome rains in May. Spring cropping prospects remain weather dependant, although May rains have facilitated nitrogen uptake. The full report can be read here.

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Rapeseed focus
Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed at €821.50/t on Friday, up €0.50/t from the week before.

Delivered rapeseed into Erith (Hvst-22) was quoted at £707.50/t on Friday, up £6.00/t across the week.

Although continental prices remain relatively unchanged, domestic prices gained slightly more across the week. Currency changes drove much of this, as sterling weakened against the Euro (-0.4%) across the week, to close Friday at £1 = €1.1768.

Results of the latest AHDB crop condition report show that 70% of winter oilseed rape is rated good to excellent, a slight decrease from the 71% estimated in April. The report cited that while cleavers, thistles and wild oats are present in the crop, the thick crop canopy is providing effective competition. The full report can be read here.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-30-May-2022
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Monday 6 June 2022

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UK grain markets

UK feed wheat futures (Jul-22) closed at £288.00/t on Wednesday (1 June), down £26.75/t from last Friday. The new crop contract (Nov-22) closed on Wednesday at £297.50/t, also down £26.75/t over the same period.

Both contracts saw an equal drop in prices last week. This followed on from the news of a potential grain corridor out of Ukraine easing global supply concerns and re-positioning ahead of the long weekend. However, this morning the new contract (Nov-22) price traded back up to £308.00/t (12:30BST), after a Russian attack in Kyiv (Refinitiv).

Due to the Jubilee Bank Holiday, the next publication of the UK delivered cereals prices is scheduled for Friday 10 June.

Last week the latest cereals usage data for GB animal feed production released. Total animal feed production season to date (Jul to Apr) is down 1.5% from last season. Read more information here.
The latest UK human and industrial cereal usage data was also updated. Total wheat milled this season (Jul to Apr) is up 5.5% from this time last year. Brewers, maltsters, and distillers saw 10.6% more barley and 21.1% more wheat usage this season (Jul-Apr) than last. More information can be found here.

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Rapeseed focus

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed at €770.75/t on Friday, down €50.75/t from the previous week.

Continental prices follow the global pattern, as demand weakens as a result of recent high prices and news that Ukrainian exports may resume. This is coupled with the EU crop currently in satisfactory condition and area projected to increase.

Last week saw sterling weaken against the euro, closing at £1 = €1.1707 on Friday, which may impact domestic prices. Due to the Jubilee holiday, no UK delivered prices were published last week and will resume this Friday (10 June).

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-06-june-2022

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Monday 13th June 2022
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UK grain markets

Domestic prices went in the opposite direction to the global market. Nearby UK feed wheat futures (Jul-22) closed at £294.90/t on Friday, down £11.50/t across the week. The new crop contract (Nov-22) did the same, down £11.50/t to close at £306.00/t on Friday.

Delivered prices saw a decline over the last couple of weeks (no delivered prices were published on the 2 June due to the bank holiday). Feed wheat into East Anglia (Nov-22 delivery) was quoted at £302.50/t on Thursday, down £19.00/t from two weeks before. Bread wheat prices into the North West (Nov-22), were quoted at £368.00/t, down £21.00/t over the same period.

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Rapeseed focus

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed Friday at €783.75/t, up €13.00/t across the week.

Delivered rapeseed (Into Erith, Hvst-22) were quoted at €655.50/t on Friday, with no comparison on weekly movements. Nov-22 and Feb-23 were quoted at €663.00/t and €666.00/t, respectively.

The latest data released from ABARES shows that every Australian state will increase in canola area for 2022/23. However, production is estimated to be 5.6Mt, down from 2021/22 bumper crop of 6.5Mt.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here -https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-13-june-2022

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Monday 20th June 2022
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UK grain markets

Domestic markets softened on Friday but were up on the week due to gains Monday to Thursday. Nov-22 futures closed Friday at £308.00/t, up £2.00/t on the previous Friday. The May-23 contract tracked this trend, up £3.50/t on the week, closing at £314.75/t over the same period.

Physical prices also recorded a gain on the week. Feed wheat for harvest delivery into East Anglia was quoted at £306.50/t as at Thursday, up £8.00/t on the week. Bread wheat prices into the North West observed the same trend, with November delivery prices up £9.00/t on the week, being offered on Thursday at £377.00/t.

The latest UK trade data up to April, released last week, showed the impacts changes in trade dynamic since the Ukraine war are having on UK grain trade. The data pointed to increased wheat imports, maize imports and barley exports.

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Rapeseed focus

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed at €760.25/t on Friday, down €23.50/t from the previous week.

Domestic prices didn’t follow the continental trend but saw little change. Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Hvst-22) were quoted at £656.50/t, up £1.00/t from the previous week. Nov-22 and Feb-23 were quoted at £663.50/t and £665.50/t respectively. The softening of sterling against the Euro last week, closing at £1 = €1.1696 on Friday, helped to shield some of the pressure seen on European futures.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-20-june-2022

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Monday 27 June 2022

UK grain markets

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UK focus

In the domestic market, UK feed wheat futures fell sharply last week, reflecting the bearish trend in the wider global market. The Nov-22 UK futures contract closed at £274.25/t on Friday, down by £33.75/t on last Friday’s close. Similarly, the May-23 contract closed at £280.75/t on Friday, down by £34.00/t.

Physical prices moved in line with the futures contract, with East Anglian feed wheat being quoted at £281.50/t for Nov-22, down by £29.00/t on last week. Yorkshire feed wheat fell by £30.00/t across the week, being quoted at £290.50/t for Nov-22.

In the latest crop condition report to 21 June, 82% of UK winter wheat remained rated as “good-to-excellent” condition. This is unchanged on last month’s estimates. Though, growers have some concerns about crop yield prospects, following persistent hot and dry weather conditions across June. Winter barley conditions marginally deteriorated on the month, with some movement to “fair”. Read more on this in our latest crop development report here.


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Rapeseed focus

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) continued to soften last week, and closed at €691.75/t on Friday, down by €66.75/t across the week. Based on last Friday’s close €100.00/t has been shaved off the Nov-22 contract since 1 June.

In the UK domestic prices followed the same on-week trend as the Paris contracts, with delivered prices into Erith (Hvst-22) quoted at £566.00/t. This is down by £90.50/t on the previous week.
Further supporting this pressure was the upward revisions to EU rapeseed output estimates, with Stratégie Grains projecting 18.3Mt of production for the 2022/23 marketing year, up from 18.2Mt projected last month. This follows improved yield prospects in Baltic states as well as larger area projections for French and Swedish crop.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-27-june-2022

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Monday 4 July 2022

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UK grain markets

In the domestic market, UK feed wheat futures continued to edge lower last week following the global market as Northern Hemisphere new-crop harvests progress.

The Nov-22 contract closing at £266/t on Friday, down by £8.25/t on the Friday before. The May-23 contract closed at £272.40/t, down by £8.35/t during the same timeframe.

For delivered prices, the East Anglia (Hvst-22) price was quoted at £269.50/t, with no comparison on the week. The last price quoted for this location and month was published on 16 Jun at £306.50/t. Delivered harvest prices have shadowed the drop in the global market since this time.

Meanwhile bread wheat prices in the North West (Nov-22) were quoted at £342.50/t, with no comparison on the week. This is at a £66.95/t premium to the UK feed wheat futures based on Thursday’s close (£275.55/t). This price is down on the last published quote (16 Jun) for this location and month which was £377/t, with premiums over feed wheat futures slightly lower at £65.70/t.

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Rapeseed focus

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) trended lower last week and closed at €673/t on Friday, down by €18.75/t on the previous week. The May-23 contract closed at €669.75/t, down by €15/t. Rapeseed prices were under pressure in-line with global soya and palm oil markets.

Domestic delivered rapeseed price changes were unable to be published last week due to insufficient quotes to calculate the published average. The last quoted was published on 24 Jun (into Erith, Aug-22) at £566/t.

Tomorrow Canadian principal field crop areas will be released by StatCan. Based on a Refinitiv poll, the trade expects canola plantings to be revised upward to 21.3M acres in this report, up from the 20.9M acres estimated in April.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-04-july-2022

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Monday 11 July

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UK grain markets
Although volatility from the global market fed into the domestic market, strong demand combined with easing recessional fears increased prices week-on-week.

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) closed at £285/t, gaining £19/t Friday to Friday. The May-23 contract closed at £290.75/t gaining £18.35/t over the same period. Nov-23 prices captured some gains too, closing at £247.75/t, up £14.35/t Friday to Friday.

Prices reported in the AHDB delivered survey were sparse. However, delivered feed wheat (into East Anglia, Hvst-22) was quoted at £263/t, down £6.50/t Thursday to Thursday and shadowing UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22), which was down £7.80/t over this period.

In other domestic news, AHDB has released the latest Planting & Variety Survey with the UK wheat area for harvest 2022 estimated at 1,807Kha, 1% up from 2021. Total UK barley area is estimated at 1,103Kha, down 4% on the year. Based purely on five-year averages, this puts both these crops potentially at circa 14.4Mt and 6.8Mt, respectively. Further insight can be found in Meg’s Grain Market Daily: What can we expect from harvest 22?

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Rapeseed focus
Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed Friday at €695.50/t, gaining €22.50/t across the week. Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Feb-23) was quoted Friday at £602.50/t , with no comparison week-on-week.

Despite the soyabean market tracking sideways and the palm and soya oil market pressured, rapeseed futures climbed week-on-week. Adding support to rapeseed was data from Statistics Canada which pegged canola plantings for harvest 2022 at 8.7Mha, down 430Kha year-on-year. Also, ICE Canola futures rose as crushers covered short positions and there was spill-over strength from soya oil towards the end of last week, adding further support.

Domestically, the Planting & Variety Survey pegged 2022 harvest rapeseed area at 336Kha, 9% higher than 2021 levels. Based purely on five-year averages, this pegs production potentially at circa 1.1Mt.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-11-july-2022
Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here -https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 

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Monday 25 July 2022

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UK grain markets

On Friday, UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) closed at £255.25/t, down £2.65/t from the previous Friday. Despite support earlier in the week considering strong EU demand and hot EU weather, Friday saw prices drop £16.75/t due to the Ukrainian export corridor. Though prices rally higher this morning on concerns of conflict at port.

The Nov-23 contract closed on Friday at £229.15/t, down £2.85/t on the week.

Domestic delivered prices followed futures price movement to Thursday. Feed wheat delivered into East Anglia for November was quoted at £266.50/t on Thursday, up £2.00/t week on week.

Bread wheat delivered into Northamptonshire for harvest delivery was quoted at £310.50/t as at Thursday.

The first GB harvest report was released on Friday, showing that dry weather has allowed farmers to make a good start to the winter barley and winter oilseed rape harvest in Southern and Eastern regions of England. In data up to 19 July, winter barley harvest progress has been exceptionally rapid with 69% of the English, Welsh and Scottish harvest already complete. Though combine and crops fire remain a problem. For the full report, follow this link.
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Rapeseed focus


Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed at €637.50/t on Friday, down €42.50/t across the week. The news that an export deal was to be signed between the UN, Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey saw prices lose support over the week, with hopes that shipments of rapeseed out of the black sea region will begin in due course.

The favourable weather forecasted over North America boosting the soyabean outlook also added some pressure on rapeseed futures. Canadian canola crop conditions also look improved after suffering from heat and humidity earlier on in the season.

UK rapeseed harvest is underway with 28% of the GB WOSR area estimated to have been harvested by 19 July. This is slightly ahead of recent years, where typically 4-15% is complete by the end of week 2. For more information see last week’s harvest progress report.

Last Friday we were unable to publish delivered oilseed prices due to insufficient quotes to calculate the published average.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-25-july-2022

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https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 01 August 2022

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UK grain markets

Domestic market movements continue to follow global contracts upwards. UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) closed on Friday at £270.05/t, up £14.80/t Friday to Friday. Nov-23 futures gained £15.60/t over the same period, to close at £244.75/t. Nov-24 futures gained £15.35/t to close at £242.15/t on Friday.

UK delivered prices are seeing some harvest pressure as combines roll for wheat crops. On Thursday, feed wheat delivered into East Anglia (for September delivery) was quoted at £265.00/t, down £1.50/t week on week.

Bread wheat delivered into the North West (for September delivery) was quoted at £329.50/t on Thursday. For the same delivery month, bread wheat into Northamptonshire is quoted at £310.50/t, down £2.00/t on the week.

Drought remains a watchpoint across the UK, with the National Drought Group convening last week.

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Rapeseed focus
Paris rapeseed futures tracked soyabean futures higher. The Nov-22 contract closed on Friday at €689.75/t, up €52.25/t Friday-Friday. This was the contracts highest close since 11 July.

The firming also reflected continued uncertainty about resuming Ukrainian exports, despite the UN’s signed agreement between Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine for shipments to restart.

European consultancy Strategie Grains has increased its forecast EU rapeseed output to 18.47Mt, up from 18.33Mt previously estimated. This would raise output by 8.8% on last year’s levels on a larger acreage and some better-than-expected yields.

Last Friday we were unable to publish delivered oilseed prices due to insufficient quotes to calculate the published average.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-01-august-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 08 August 2022

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UK grain markets

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) closed at £267.00/t on Friday, down £3.05/t from the previous Friday. The May-23 contract was down £2.05/t at £272.75/t Friday-Friday. Whilst the Nov-23 contract closed at £241.70/t, down £3.05/t over the same period. The departure of Ukrainian grain shipments through the Black Sea has been the key driver of these small downward movements.

Domestic feed wheat delivered prices into East Anglia were quoted on Thursday at £261.00/t (for Sept delivery), down £4.00/t on the previous Thursday. For November delivery to same location, feed wheat was quoted at £263.00/t, down £6.00/t on the week.

Delivered bread wheat prices into the North West was quoted at £325.00/t on Thursday (harvest delivery). Bread wheat delivered into Northamptonshire (September delivery) was quoted at £306.50/t, down £4.00/t week on week.

On Friday, the latest harvest report was released. In data up to 02 August, 99% of winter barley has now been harvested. Winter wheat harvest is estimated at 30% completion and is accelerating. To read the full report, follow this link.

Full season GB animal feed production for 2021/22 was at the lowest level since 2016/17, totalling 13,991Kt. A fall in poultry and ruminant feed demand outweighed an increase in pig feed demand.

UK human and industrial 2021/22 full season usage is also available. Total wheat milled saw a rise of 5.5% from 2020/21. Oats milled saw a 5.3% decline from the previous year. Whereas, for brewers, maltsters and distillers, barley (+9.3%) and wheat (+22.8%) usage were both up on the year.

The Bank of England increased the base interest rate by 0.5 percentage points (the 6th consecutive rise) to 1.75%. as inflation is expected to hit 13% in October. Globally there are recessional fears that could potentially impact the global demand for cereals and oilseeds.

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Rapeseed focus

Driving rapeseed prices last week was a drop in brent crude oil (nearby) and fair weather for US soyabeans, as mentioned above.

On Friday, Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed at €653.25/t, down €36.50/t on the week. Domestically, rapeseed delivered into Erith was quoted on Friday at £537.50/t, with no comparison on the week.

The Ukraine rapeseed harvest forecast, and yield estimate, remains unchanged from last month. Harvest is forecasted at 3.14Mt according to UkrAgroConsult.

Our domestic GB winter oilseed rape harvest is 84% complete, in data up to 02 August. Many areas have reached completion, though Scotland and North East have areas to finish.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-08-august-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 15 August 2022

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UK grain markets

Following trends in the wider global wheat market, UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) closed at £271.35/t on Friday, up £4.35/t from the previous Friday. The Nov-23 contract gained £3.90/t on the week, to settle at £245.60 on Friday.

East Anglia delivered feed wheat prices (for September delivery) were quoted at £267.50/t on Thursday, up £6.50/t from the previous week. As well as mirroring UK feed wheat futures movements, some of the price increase is likely due to haulage issues. With harvest progressing at a rapid pace and some farmers believed to still have old crop in store, there are currently anecdotal reports of shortages of haulage in some areas to move the volume of grain required.

Bread wheat delivered into the North West for September was quoted at £331.50/t on Thursday, up £5.00/t on the week. September delivery to Northamptonshire was up £6.00/t on the week, quoted at £312.50/t, again following wider feed wheat market movement

GB harvest 2022 was 63% complete as at 9 August, according to the latest AHDB harvest report. The current pace far exceeds the five-year average at this point in the season of 40% complete by week 5. It is estimated that 65% of the total GB winter wheat area has been harvested and the winter barley harvest was complete by 9 August. Click here to read the full report.

The latest cereals Agri Market Outlook, released on Friday by AHDB, projected an increase in wheat production for 2022/23, driven by a slightly larger planted area. While the hot, dry conditions are expected to have some impact on yields, this is regional, with crops on heavier land yielding better than crops on lighter land, due to moisture retention. For barley, output is expected to be slightly lower on the year, driven by a smaller planted area, and slightly lower spring barley yields. In terms of demand, animal feed production is expected to be down on the year, mainly due to tighter margins for poultry and pig producers. Milling and malting demand is expected to remain relatively stable this season but consumer demand is a watch point with ‘the cost of living crisis’, as discussed in a recent analyst insight.

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Rapeseed focus

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) increased by €3.00/t on the week, closing at €656.25/t on Friday. The Nov-23 contract closed at €642.75/t, gaining €4.25/t from Friday to Friday partly due to dry weather delaying new crop planting as well as following trends across the wider oilseed complex.

Friday’s harvest report indicated oilseed rape harvest is 95% complete as at 9 August, ahead of the five year average of 85% completion by week 5, with just the North East, East Midlands, Wales and Scotland with area still to harvest.

Follow this link to see the latest oilseed Agri Market Outlook, released on Friday. Production of rapeseed is estimated to increase by 981Kt compared to 2021, to total 1.1Mt. The production increase is explained by the estimated increase in oilseed rape area of 336Kha. Imports are expected to be slightly reduced due to this and that is expected to balance domestic consumption due to relatively stable demand. Since Hull’s Cargill crushing plant may only close in December and the demand loss could be absorbed into other crushing plants not currently working at 100% capacity, crushing demand may not be impacted substantially. On the other hand, estimates forecast the sow herd to decline and the dairy herd to shrink due to inflation and recessional fears, which could lead to reduced demand for rape meal in livestock feed.

Last Friday we were unable to publish delivered oilseed prices due to insufficient quotes to calculate the published average.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-15-august-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 22 August 2022

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UK grain markets

On Friday, UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) closed at £257.25/t, down £14.10/t from the previous week. The Nov-23 contract closed at £241.00/t, down £4.60/t Friday to Friday. UK futures tracked global markets as Ukrainian exports continued to put pressure on global futures prices, with 27 vessels in total having left Ukraine as of Saturday (20 Aug).

Domestic delivered prices followed futures price movement to Thursday. Feed wheat delivered into East Anglia, for November, was quoted at £250.00/t down £20.00/t on the week.

Bread wheat delivered into Northamptonshire for harvest delivery was quoted at £295.50/t, down £14.00/t Thursday to Thursday.

The fourth GB harvest progress report was released on Friday. In data up to 16 August, 89% of GB harvest 2022 was complete. This is well ahead of the 52% five-year average for harvest progress by this point in the season (week 6).

GB winter wheat harvest is estimated to be 92% complete, with the majority of crop left to be cut in the North East and Scotland. GB spring barley is estimated to be 73% complete and oat harvest 79% complete, with winter barley and winter oilseed rape both complete entirely. For more information, read the full report here.

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Rapeseed focus

Nov-22 Paris rapeseed futures dropped sharply over the week, closing at €601.50/t on Friday, down €54.75/t from Friday to Friday. The Nov-23 contract lost €42.50/t week on week, closing at €600.25/t on Friday.

The drop in prices over the week was largely driven by pressure from exports continuing to leave Ukraine. Rapeseed markets were also weighed on by downward movements in soyabean markets, as a result of improved US weather and lower Chinese demand prospects.

GB winter oilseed rape harvest was completed in week ending 16 August, with this year’s pace ahead of the five-year average, but in line with the 2018 progress, according to the latest AHDB harvest progress report. The GB average yield is 3.2-3.6t/ha with the highest yielding crops established well in autumn in moisture retentive soil and had minimal pest/disease damage. See Friday’s harvest report for more information.

Friday’s delivered oilseed rape prices for August delivery were quoted at £502.50/t for Erith and £500.00/t for East Anglia/London.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-22-august-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Tuesday 30 August 2022

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UK grain markets

Following trends in global grain markets, UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) gained £5.25/t last week, closing at £262.50/t on Friday. The Nov-23 contract closed at £251.90/t, a rise of £10.90/t over the same period.

East Anglia delivered feed wheat prices (for October delivery) were quoted at £256.50/t on Thursday, up £7.50/t on the week. This price increase mirrors UK feed wheat futures movements (Thurs-Thurs).

Bread wheat delivered into London/Essex for October was quoted at £299.50/t, up £9.00/t Thursday to Thursday.

Estimated cereal stocks held by Merchants, Ports, and Co-ops were updated on Thursday. According to the latest data, 587.2Kt of home-grown wheat and 279.3Kt of home-grown barley was held at the end of June, up 17% and 16% on the year respectively. Imported wheat and maize stocks also saw a yearly rise of 19% and 11% respectively. To view the information in full, click here. Defra also released the latest on-farm stocks to end of June, available here.

Last week, CF industries announced that they were to ‘temporarily halt’ production of ammonia at their Billingham site. The closure will have a significant impact on the industry, with questions being asked over physical availability of fertiliser for spring 2023 application. As well as the obvious impact on fertiliser prices, the shortage of CO2 domestically will impact the slaughter of poultry and pigs, and in turn affect demand for cereals for animal feed. For more information, read Thursday’s Analyst insight piece here.

The fifth GB harvest progress report was released on Friday. In data up to 23 August, 95% of the total GB harvest was complete, exceeding the five-year average of 69% complete by this point in the season. The GB winter wheat harvest is estimated to be 98% complete, with the majority of crop left to be cut in Scotland. GB spring barley harvest was 81% complete, with 90% of the GB oat area also harvested. For the full GB harvest update, find the full report here.

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Rapeseed focus

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed at €621.00/t yesterday, up €19.50/t Fri – Mon. Though yesterday saw prices fall €8.25/t from Friday’s close. Yesterday’s movement tracked the Winnipeg canola (rapeseed) futures downwards following the release of updated Canadian government crop forecasts, as well as pressure on palm oil.

A bumper Canadian rapeseed harvest of 19.5Mt is expected this season by Statistics Canada, the largest in 3 years (Refinitiv). This eases some global supply worries and added some pressure to markets yesterday.

Yesterday, Ukrainian consultancy UkrAgroConsult placed Ukraine’s rapeseed harvest at 99% complete, in data up to 25 August. Yields are pegged higher than last year, at 2.84t/ha.

GB’s rapeseed harvest was completed in week 6 (w/e 16 August) as mentioned in Friday’s harvest report. Though reportedly with recent rain showers in some areas, some farmers have taken the opportunity to drill WOSR when the combine was parked up.

Delivered oilseed rape prices for November delivery were quoted at £529.50/t for Erith on Friday, up £19.50/t on the previous Friday.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-30-august-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 05 September 2022

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UK focus​

UK futures followed trends in global prices last week. UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) gained £4.00/t over the week, closing at £266.50/t on Friday. The Nov-23 contract closed at £257.00/t, gaining £5.10/t Friday – Friday.

East Anglia delivered feed wheat prices for September delivery were quoted at £263.00/t on Thursday, up £8.00/t from the previous week. This price increase mirrors UK feed wheat futures movements (Thurs-Thurs).

Bread wheat delivered into North West for November was quoted at £331.50/t, up £9.50/t Thursday to Thursday.

Natural gas prices in the UK continue to climb. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline which had been due to reopen on Saturday is still shut as Russia’s state-owned energy firm Gazprom is said to have found a leak. As at 12.30pm today, nearby ICE natural gas prices were 525.00p/therm, up 115.58p/therm (28.23%) from Friday.

The UK Government and devolved administrations have launched a consultation seeking views on proposals to update and amend The Bread and Flour Regulations 1998 and The Bread and Flour Regulations (Northern Ireland) 1998. Details of the consultation can be found here.
The Bread and Flour Regulations lay down specific rules on the labelling and composition of bread and flour and include a requirement to fortify non-wholemeal wheat flour. The consultation includes proposals to update the regulations to ensure consistency with other food standards legislation and implements the Government’s previously agreed policy to add folic acid to the list of mandatory nutrients required to be added to flour at a specific level. The consultation runs from Thursday 1 September to Wednesday 23 November.

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Rapeseed focus​

Rapeseed markets followed the oilseed complex down as Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed Friday at €612.75/t, down €16.50/t across the week.

Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Nov-22) was quoted at £530.50/t, up £1.00/t across the week. Sterling weakening (-1.89%) against the Euro sheltered our domestic market from the pressure on the continental market. Trading closed Friday at £1 = €1.1556.

Despite sunseed and soyabean EU production being revised down, Stratégie Grains raised their estimates of this year’s EU rapeseed harvest to 19.2Mt from 18.5Mt. This is 12.9% above last year’s level. Rapeseed growing conditions have been favourable and harvest results better than expected.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-05-september-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 12 September 2022

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UK grain markets

Across the week, UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) rose £8.75/t, closing at £275.25 after a rally on Friday. The Nov-23 contract closed at £264.75/t, gaining £7.75/t Friday-Friday.

East Anglia delivered feed wheat prices for September delivery were quoted at £264.50/t on Thursday, up £1.50/t on the week. This price increase mirrors UK feed wheat futures movements (Thursday-Thursday).

Bread wheat delivered into London/Essex for October was quoted at £309.50/t, up £0.50/t Thursday-Thursday.

Sterling remains weak against the dollar at £1=$1.1587. This follows surging inflation and a looming recession. UK exports remain cheap and imports expensive as a result, an issue for UK margins due to our reliance on imported nitrogen products. Read more about this in Wednesday’s grain market daily article.

The sixth and final harvest report will be released this coming Friday (16 Sep) and published on our Harvest progress in Great Britain page.

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Rapeseed focus

Global rapeseed markets have been pressured by the losses in palm oil and soyabean prices, combined with concerns over slowing demand. Parts of the EU have also experienced some welcomed rain towards the end of last week, boosting the emergence of recently planted rapeseed and further pressuring prices.

The Australian government’s ABARES report released on Tuesday, also indicated that canola production in the country is forecast to reach the second highest level on record at 6.6Mt. This would be a 2% decrease from the record reached last year.

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) were down €15.00/t over the week, closing at €597.75/t. The Nov-23 contract closed at €608.75/t on Friday, down €14.25/t over the same period.

Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Nov-22) was quoted at £525.00/t on Thursday, down £5.50/t from the previous week. The weakening pound against the euro over the week (-0.4%) continues to limit the pressure put on domestic prices. Trading closed Friday £1 = €1.1538.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-12-september-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Tuesday 20 September 2022
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UK grain markets

Due to the bank holiday for Queen Elizabeth II funeral, UK feed wheat futures did not trade yesterday. The Nov-22 contract was down £0.75/t across last week, closing at £274.50/t on Friday. The Nov-23 contract closed at £263.20/t, losing £1.70/t Friday-Friday.

East Anglia delivered feed wheat prices for September delivery were quoted at £269.50/t on Thursday, up £5.00/t on the week. This price increase mirrors UK feed wheat futures movements (Thursday-Thursday).

Bread wheat delivered into the North West for October was quoted at £334.50/t, up £4.50/t Thursday to Thursday.

According to HMRC’s most recent trade data (12 Sep), in July the UK exported 51.5Kt of wheat and 100.3Kt barley to the EU. Compared to the same point last year, this is up 35.2Kt and 86.6Kt respectively.

Our sixth and final harvest report came out on Friday. Harvest is all but complete, with some crops still to harvest in Scotland. Following the extended period of dry weather, recent rainfall across most of GB has had little impact on progress or quality. Although this has been variable. To note, there are increasing reports of Ergot in East Midlands in winter and spring wheat samples, and small amounts in winter and spring barley samples. However, overall, there have been limited amounts found in central stores.

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Rapeseed focus

Quite the opposite happened in rapeseed markets with Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closing Friday at €577.25/t, down €20.50/t across the week. Domestic prices shadowed this loss with delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Nov-22) being quoted at £503.00/t, down £22.00/t week-on-week.

With the market open yesterday, prices were further pressured with Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closing at €571.50/t down €5.75/t on Friday’s close.

Limited rain across the Canadian Prairies over the last 7-days has allowed harvest to progress which pressured the market.

Latest statistics (released 14 Sep) from Statistics Canada estimate the 2022 canola (rapeseed) crop at 19.1Mt. This is up 38.8% from 2021. This prediction is based on satellite and agroclimatic data with consistent rains and warm temperatures this year, allowing the annual increases in crop production.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-20-september-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 

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Monday 26 September 2022

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UK grain markets

UK feed wheat (Nov-22) futures gained £9.70/t last week, to close on Friday at £284.20/t. The new-crop contract Nov-23 closed up £5.95/t over the same period, to close on Friday at £269.00/t. UK futures followed global markets, with rising prices from Black Sea concerns capped by recession concerns and an accelerating maize harvest.

UK delivered prices followed futures contract movement Thursday to Thursday. On Thursday, feed wheat delivered into East Anglia (September delivery) was up £9.50/t to be quoted at £279.00/t.

Bread wheat delivered into the North West (September delivery) was quoted on Thursday at £345.50/t.

Following on from UK government economic announcements last week, the pound sterling dropped to a record low this morning. On Friday, the pound sterling closed at £1 = $1.0856 (Refinitiv). This morning, early Asian trading saw the pound fall to even lower levels (£1=$1.0327), but the opening of the European markets saw the pound recover slightly on bargain buying. Today at 13:00, the pound was trading at £1 = $1.0879.

In order for Defra and the Fertiliser Industry Taskforce to better understand the fertiliser use of farmers in 2022, and what is likely to be used and imported for the 2023 harvest, AHDB have created a short informal survey to gather information. If you are willing to take part, please follow this link.

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Rapeseed focus

Rapeseed markets headed in the opposite direction to soyabeans last week. The Nov-22 Paris rapeseed contract gained €29.50/t over the week, closing at €606.75/t on Friday.

Domestic prices followed global futures markets last week. Delivered rapeseed into Erith (Nov-22) was quoted at £522.00/t on Friday, up £19.00/t over the week.

Recent unfavourable rains across Canada have seen their 2022/23 rapeseed production figure trimmed to 20.1Mt in a Refinitv analysis. However, this estimate still sits above USDA (20.0Mt) and StatCan (19.1Mt) estimates. The weather outlook across the Prairies in the coming week also looks mostly drier and more favourable for harvest progress.

The unwelcomed rains, combined with continuing concerns over future exports from the Black Sea region, likely added support to rapeseed markets last week.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-26-september-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 03 October 2022

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UK focus​

UK grain market followed the global market up across the week. UK feed wheat futures (Nov-22) closed Friday at £291.15/t, gaining £6.95/t across the week.

UK delivered prices followed futures contract movement Thursday to Thursday (+£5.35/t). On Thursday, feed wheat delivered into East Anglia (October-22 delivery) was quoted at £285.00/t. February-23 delivered into the same location was quoted at £290.50/t, up £6.00/t across the week.
Bread wheat delivered into the North West (October delivery) was quoted on Thursday at £351.50/t.
Feed barley delivered into East Anglia (October-22) delivery was quoted at £255.00/t, gaining £6.50/t across the week.

Last week, the sterling reached a low on Monday (26 Sep) against the US dollar and euro, following the UK’s biggest tax cut for 50 years on top of the mini-budget. Though, the sterling gained back some strength against both the US dollar (+2.8%) and euro (+1.7%) across the week, to close Friday at £1 = $1.116, €1.139.

The end of season (2021/22) UK cereal supply and demand estimate was released on Thursday. Wheat carry-in stocks for the 2022/23 season are forecast at a relatively comfortable 1.846Mt, which is in line with the previous five-year average. However, barley 2022/23 opening stocks are estimated at a 10 year low, read more on this analysis here.

In order for Defra and the Fertiliser Industry Taskforce to better understand the fertiliser use of farmers in 2022, and what is likely to be used and imported for the 2023 harvest, AHDB have created a short informal survey to gather information. If you are willing to take part, please follow this link.

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Rapeseed focus​

After initial pressure at the start of the week due to global economic recessionary concerns, Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) climbed to €633.00/t on Friday, up €26.25/t Friday to Friday.

Rapeseed felt support from Canadian markets due to slow farmer selling and worries of lower yields.
Domestic prices tracked global futures markets as delivered rapeseed into Erith (Nov-22) was quoted at £550.50/t, up £28.50/t week-on-week.

Stratégie Grains have increased their 2023/24 EU rapeseed acreage forecast to 5.95Mha, up 2.52% compared to the current marketing year. EU rapeseed production was also revised up 310Kt compared to August’s forecast, totalling 19.46Mt (2.46Mt more than in 2021/22).

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-03-october-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here - https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

  • 0 %

    Votes: 80 42.1%
  • Up to 25%

    Votes: 67 35.3%
  • 25-50%

    Votes: 30 15.8%
  • 50-75%

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • 75-100%

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • 100% I’ve had enough of farming!

    Votes: 7 3.7%

Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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