AHDB weekly market report

Monday 16 May 2022

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UK focus​

UK feed wheat futures continue to follow global movements. The May-22 contract gained £16.80/t last week, to close on Friday at £351.80/t. The new crop contract (Nov-22) gained £17.55/t last week, to close at £336.30/t. We can see new-crop prices are moving up towards old-crop levels. This morning, the Nov-22 contract was trading at £349.00/t (12:00BST) on the Indian export news.

UK delivered prices continue to follow futures market movements. On Thursday, feed wheat into East Anglia (Jul delivery) gained £7.50/t (Thurs to Thurs) to be quoted at £343.50/t. To this same destination, Nov-22 gained £22.00/t (Thurs to Thurs) to be quoted at £337.50/t.

Bread wheat prices delivered into Northamptonshire (Nov-22) gained £19.00/t last week, to be quoted at £383.00/t.

On Friday, Vikki used results from different nitrogen application strategies to analyse scenario outcomes for UK production for harvest 22. To read the full report, use this link.

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Rapeseed focus​

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed Friday at €857.50/t, gaining €29.25/t across the week.

Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Nov-22) was quoted Friday at £731.00/t, gaining £12.00/t across the week.

Gains on our domestic market were limited across the week due to sterling strengthening against the euro to close Friday at £1 = €1.1773.
 
Monday 23 May 2022

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UK grain markets

UK feed wheat futures (May-22) closed on Friday at £336.50/t. This is down £15.30/t from last Friday. The new-crop futures (Nov-22) closed on Friday at £331.00/t, down £5.30/t. Though both contracts reached record highs on Monday following the Indian export ban.

New-crop futures have narrowed closely to old-crop prices, falling less week-on-week. The fundamental support remains for next season, considering the war between Russia and Ukraine, and weather issues causing concern to global harvest 22 crop sizes.

UK delivered prices continue to follow global market movements. East Anglia feed wheat, for Nov-22 delivery, fell £6.50/t last week (Thurs-Thurs) to be quoted at £331.00/t on Thursday.

Bread wheat prices for Nov-22 to London/Essex were quoted at £374.00/t on Thursday.

Last week, two key analysis pieces were produced. The first looking at gross margins for harvests’ 22 and 23. The second piece explored the impact on harvest 2023 from high input costs.

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Rapeseed focus

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed Friday at €821.00/t, down €36.50/t across the week. Domestically, delivered rapeseed (Into Erith, Hvst-22) was quoted Friday at £701.50/t, down £23.00/t across the week. For the same delivery, November was quoted at £707.50/t, down £23.50/t across the week.

Currently there isn’t any major weather concerns in the Canadian Prairies where canola (rapeseed) plantings are on-going. Forecasts show that in the next week that mean temperatures remain stable, with light rains forecast over the next 7 days in the Canadian prairies.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-23-may-2022

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https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 30 May 2022
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UK grain markets
Nearby UK feed wheat futures (Jul-22) closed Friday at £314.75/t, a drop of £19.95/t on the previous week. The new crop contract (Nov-22) was down £6.75/t over the same period, closing at £324.25/t on Friday. Both contracts followed global grain prices down, on the news that a deal could be struck with Russia to allow grain exports out of Ukraine.

UK delivered prices followed suit. Feed wheat into East Anglia (Nov-22 delivery) fell £9.50/t last week (Thurs-Thurs) to £321.50/t. Bread wheat prices into the North West, for November delivery were pegged at £389.00/t, with no weekly comparison available.

Last week’s latest UK supply and demand estimates pointed to closing wheat stocks revised upwards, following stronger import pace, coupled with relatively stable demand and exports. However, carry out stocks for barley are set to be the lowest level for nearly a decade, with tight domestic availability, combined with stronger domestic consumption and exports factoring. Read the full release here.

The latest AHDB crop condition report, released on Friday, showed promising yield prospects for winter crops, following welcome rains in May. Spring cropping prospects remain weather dependant, although May rains have facilitated nitrogen uptake. The full report can be read here.

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Rapeseed focus
Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed at €821.50/t on Friday, up €0.50/t from the week before.

Delivered rapeseed into Erith (Hvst-22) was quoted at £707.50/t on Friday, up £6.00/t across the week.

Although continental prices remain relatively unchanged, domestic prices gained slightly more across the week. Currency changes drove much of this, as sterling weakened against the Euro (-0.4%) across the week, to close Friday at £1 = €1.1768.

Results of the latest AHDB crop condition report show that 70% of winter oilseed rape is rated good to excellent, a slight decrease from the 71% estimated in April. The report cited that while cleavers, thistles and wild oats are present in the crop, the thick crop canopy is providing effective competition. The full report can be read here.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-30-May-2022
Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here -
https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 6 June 2022

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UK grain markets

UK feed wheat futures (Jul-22) closed at £288.00/t on Wednesday (1 June), down £26.75/t from last Friday. The new crop contract (Nov-22) closed on Wednesday at £297.50/t, also down £26.75/t over the same period.

Both contracts saw an equal drop in prices last week. This followed on from the news of a potential grain corridor out of Ukraine easing global supply concerns and re-positioning ahead of the long weekend. However, this morning the new contract (Nov-22) price traded back up to £308.00/t (12:30BST), after a Russian attack in Kyiv (Refinitiv).

Due to the Jubilee Bank Holiday, the next publication of the UK delivered cereals prices is scheduled for Friday 10 June.

Last week the latest cereals usage data for GB animal feed production released. Total animal feed production season to date (Jul to Apr) is down 1.5% from last season. Read more information here.
The latest UK human and industrial cereal usage data was also updated. Total wheat milled this season (Jul to Apr) is up 5.5% from this time last year. Brewers, maltsters, and distillers saw 10.6% more barley and 21.1% more wheat usage this season (Jul-Apr) than last. More information can be found here.

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Rapeseed focus

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed at €770.75/t on Friday, down €50.75/t from the previous week.

Continental prices follow the global pattern, as demand weakens as a result of recent high prices and news that Ukrainian exports may resume. This is coupled with the EU crop currently in satisfactory condition and area projected to increase.

Last week saw sterling weaken against the euro, closing at £1 = €1.1707 on Friday, which may impact domestic prices. Due to the Jubilee holiday, no UK delivered prices were published last week and will resume this Friday (10 June).

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-06-june-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here -
https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 13th June 2022
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UK grain markets

Domestic prices went in the opposite direction to the global market. Nearby UK feed wheat futures (Jul-22) closed at £294.90/t on Friday, down £11.50/t across the week. The new crop contract (Nov-22) did the same, down £11.50/t to close at £306.00/t on Friday.

Delivered prices saw a decline over the last couple of weeks (no delivered prices were published on the 2 June due to the bank holiday). Feed wheat into East Anglia (Nov-22 delivery) was quoted at £302.50/t on Thursday, down £19.00/t from two weeks before. Bread wheat prices into the North West (Nov-22), were quoted at £368.00/t, down £21.00/t over the same period.

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Rapeseed focus

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed Friday at €783.75/t, up €13.00/t across the week.

Delivered rapeseed (Into Erith, Hvst-22) were quoted at €655.50/t on Friday, with no comparison on weekly movements. Nov-22 and Feb-23 were quoted at €663.00/t and €666.00/t, respectively.

The latest data released from ABARES shows that every Australian state will increase in canola area for 2022/23. However, production is estimated to be 5.6Mt, down from 2021/22 bumper crop of 6.5Mt.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here -https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-13-june-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here -
https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 20th June 2022
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UK grain markets

Domestic markets softened on Friday but were up on the week due to gains Monday to Thursday. Nov-22 futures closed Friday at £308.00/t, up £2.00/t on the previous Friday. The May-23 contract tracked this trend, up £3.50/t on the week, closing at £314.75/t over the same period.

Physical prices also recorded a gain on the week. Feed wheat for harvest delivery into East Anglia was quoted at £306.50/t as at Thursday, up £8.00/t on the week. Bread wheat prices into the North West observed the same trend, with November delivery prices up £9.00/t on the week, being offered on Thursday at £377.00/t.

The latest UK trade data up to April, released last week, showed the impacts changes in trade dynamic since the Ukraine war are having on UK grain trade. The data pointed to increased wheat imports, maize imports and barley exports.

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Rapeseed focus

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed at €760.25/t on Friday, down €23.50/t from the previous week.

Domestic prices didn’t follow the continental trend but saw little change. Delivered rapeseed (into Erith, Hvst-22) were quoted at £656.50/t, up £1.00/t from the previous week. Nov-22 and Feb-23 were quoted at £663.50/t and £665.50/t respectively. The softening of sterling against the Euro last week, closing at £1 = €1.1696 on Friday, helped to shield some of the pressure seen on European futures.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-20-june-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here -
https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 27 June 2022

UK grain markets

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UK focus

In the domestic market, UK feed wheat futures fell sharply last week, reflecting the bearish trend in the wider global market. The Nov-22 UK futures contract closed at £274.25/t on Friday, down by £33.75/t on last Friday’s close. Similarly, the May-23 contract closed at £280.75/t on Friday, down by £34.00/t.

Physical prices moved in line with the futures contract, with East Anglian feed wheat being quoted at £281.50/t for Nov-22, down by £29.00/t on last week. Yorkshire feed wheat fell by £30.00/t across the week, being quoted at £290.50/t for Nov-22.

In the latest crop condition report to 21 June, 82% of UK winter wheat remained rated as “good-to-excellent” condition. This is unchanged on last month’s estimates. Though, growers have some concerns about crop yield prospects, following persistent hot and dry weather conditions across June. Winter barley conditions marginally deteriorated on the month, with some movement to “fair”. Read more on this in our latest crop development report here.


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Rapeseed focus

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) continued to soften last week, and closed at €691.75/t on Friday, down by €66.75/t across the week. Based on last Friday’s close €100.00/t has been shaved off the Nov-22 contract since 1 June.

In the UK domestic prices followed the same on-week trend as the Paris contracts, with delivered prices into Erith (Hvst-22) quoted at £566.00/t. This is down by £90.50/t on the previous week.
Further supporting this pressure was the upward revisions to EU rapeseed output estimates, with Stratégie Grains projecting 18.3Mt of production for the 2022/23 marketing year, up from 18.2Mt projected last month. This follows improved yield prospects in Baltic states as well as larger area projections for French and Swedish crop.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-27-june-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here -
https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 
Monday 4 July 2022

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UK grain markets

In the domestic market, UK feed wheat futures continued to edge lower last week following the global market as Northern Hemisphere new-crop harvests progress.

The Nov-22 contract closing at £266/t on Friday, down by £8.25/t on the Friday before. The May-23 contract closed at £272.40/t, down by £8.35/t during the same timeframe.

For delivered prices, the East Anglia (Hvst-22) price was quoted at £269.50/t, with no comparison on the week. The last price quoted for this location and month was published on 16 Jun at £306.50/t. Delivered harvest prices have shadowed the drop in the global market since this time.

Meanwhile bread wheat prices in the North West (Nov-22) were quoted at £342.50/t, with no comparison on the week. This is at a £66.95/t premium to the UK feed wheat futures based on Thursday’s close (£275.55/t). This price is down on the last published quote (16 Jun) for this location and month which was £377/t, with premiums over feed wheat futures slightly lower at £65.70/t.

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Rapeseed focus

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) trended lower last week and closed at €673/t on Friday, down by €18.75/t on the previous week. The May-23 contract closed at €669.75/t, down by €15/t. Rapeseed prices were under pressure in-line with global soya and palm oil markets.

Domestic delivered rapeseed price changes were unable to be published last week due to insufficient quotes to calculate the published average. The last quoted was published on 24 Jun (into Erith, Aug-22) at £566/t.

Tomorrow Canadian principal field crop areas will be released by StatCan. Based on a Refinitiv poll, the trade expects canola plantings to be revised upward to 21.3M acres in this report, up from the 20.9M acres estimated in April.

Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here - https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-04-july-2022

Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here -
https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch
 

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Man fined £300 for bonfire-related waste offences

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Written by William Kellett from Agriland

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A man has pleaded guilty at Newtownards Magistrates’ Court to waste offences relating to a bonfire next to the electrical sub-station on the Circular Road in Newtownards, Co. Down.

Gareth Gill (51) of Abbot’s Walk, Newtownards pleaded guilty to two charges under the Waste and Contaminated Land (Northern Ireland) Order 1997, for which he was fined £150 each and ordered to pay a £15 offender’s levy

On June 25, 2018, PSNI officers went to Gill’s yard, where they found a large amount of waste consisting of scrap wood, pallets, carpet and underlay.

Discussion with Northern Ireland Environment Agency (NIEA) officers confirmed the site...
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