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AHDB weekly market report
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<blockquote data-quote="AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds" data-source="post: 7786782" data-attributes="member: 142623"><p>Monday 11 October</p><p></p><p>Following requested feedback earlier in the year, we have amended our dials. The dials in this report reflect the analyst’s view of the possible direction in markets. The two-week (solid line) and six-month (dashed line) outlooks are based on the best available information at the time of writing. Please note, these views do not constitute trading advice and direction of markets may change due to new information since the time of writing.</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]990619[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><h3>UK focus</h3><p>This morning, Defra estimated the 2021 UK wheat crop at 14.0Mt. This is a marked increase from the 9.7Mt harvested in 2020. This is below what many in industry, <a href="http://link.ahdb.org.uk/c/6/?T=NDUxNzg1OTU%3AcDEtYjIxMjg0LTRjNmM2NWNiNWIyODQ4M2ViMWU1NzEyZTQ2ZmZjMGFm%3AYW50aG9ueS5zcGVpZ2h0QGFoZGIub3JnLnVr%3AY29udGFjdC00ZTA2YTJlNzc0MzhlYTExYTgxMzAwMGQzYTg2ZDU0NS02YjY0MTQ1YWM5ODQ0YjdjOTZmNDU1NDc2MjlkYmRmNw%3AdHJ1ZQ%3ANA%3A%3AaHR0cHM6Ly9haGRiLm9yZy51ay9uZXdzL3VrLWhhcnZlc3QtcmV2aWV3ZWQtYXMtdXMtc3RvY2stcmVwb3J0cy1wdXNoZXMtZ2xvYmFsLXdoZWF0LWhpZ2hlci1ncmFpbi1tYXJrZXQtZGFpbHk_X2NsZGVlPVlXNTBhRzl1ZVM1emNHVnBaMmgwUUdGb1pHSXViM0puTG5WciZyZWNpcGllbnRpZD1jb250YWN0LTRlMDZhMmU3NzQzOGVhMTFhODEzMDAwZDNhODZkNTQ1LTZiNjQxNDVhYzk4NDRiN2M5NmY0NTU0NzYyOWRiZGY3JmVzaWQ9ZDRjMDFiNDEtN2QyYS1lYzExLWI2ZTYtMDAyMjQ4MWFkMWU2&K=RzxFW7tauWi8aJ5bE2sxCA" target="_blank">including </a>AHDB, had expected. Looking at the provisional English area, yields would need to have fallen below the five-year average to give a crop of this size. This differs from industry information and AHDB’s harvest reports.</p><p></p><p>The barley crop is provisionally 7.1Mt, down from the 8.1Mt harvested last year.</p><p></p><p>Only the UK production numbers are currently available. Details of the UK area and yields, plus the size of the oat and rapeseed crops will be published on Thursday morning.</p><p></p><p><a href="http://link.ahdb.org.uk/c/6/?T=NDUxNzg1OTU%3AcDEtYjIxMjg0LTRjNmM2NWNiNWIyODQ4M2ViMWU1NzEyZTQ2ZmZjMGFm%3AYW50aG9ueS5zcGVpZ2h0QGFoZGIub3JnLnVr%3AY29udGFjdC00ZTA2YTJlNzc0MzhlYTExYTgxMzAwMGQzYTg2ZDU0NS02YjY0MTQ1YWM5ODQ0YjdjOTZmNDU1NDc2MjlkYmRmNw%3AdHJ1ZQ%3ANQ%3A%3AaHR0cHM6Ly9haGRiLm9yZy51ay9jZXJlYWxzLW9pbHNlZWRzL3VrLWRlbGl2ZXJlZC1wcmljZXM_X2NsZGVlPVlXNTBhRzl1ZVM1emNHVnBaMmgwUUdGb1pHSXViM0puTG5WciZyZWNpcGllbnRpZD1jb250YWN0LTRlMDZhMmU3NzQzOGVhMTFhODEzMDAwZDNhODZkNTQ1LTZiNjQxNDVhYzk4NDRiN2M5NmY0NTU0NzYyOWRiZGY3JmVzaWQ9ZDRjMDFiNDEtN2QyYS1lYzExLWI2ZTYtMDAyMjQ4MWFkMWU2&K=69LODvSRv_Y7hZFHH7ttoA" target="_blank">Bread wheat prices</a> continued to rise last week. Full specification bread wheat (≥ 13% protein, 250s & 76kg/hl) delivered to the North West in November 2021 was quoted at £255.50/t, up £3.50/t from a week earlier. The latest price equates to a £53.00/t premium over Nov-21 futures. It is also the highest UK bread wheat price reported since late 2012.</p><p></p><p>Feed barley (delivered E. Anglia, Nov-21) was £188.50/t last week, up £4.50/t. This was £13.00/t below feed wheat (same delivery), compared to a £16.50/t discount on 30 September.</p><p></p><p>[ATTACH=full]990620[/ATTACH]</p><p></p><h3>Rapeseed focus</h3><p>Rapeseed prices continued to surge last week, supported by strong demand and the continued tight outlook. Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-21) gained €23.25/t, Friday to Friday, closing on 8 October at €676.50/t.</p><p></p><p>UK markets followed the trends seen in the European market, although trade remains exceedingly thin once more. Rapeseed delivered Erith (May-22) was quoted at £578.00/t, up £25.00/t on the previous week.</p><p></p><p>Strong fundamental support in vegetable oil market, is a key underlying feature of the rapeseed market.</p><p></p><p>With Northern Hemisphere crops tight, attention is on developments in the Southern Hemisphere. In the week to 6 October, conditions in Australia were positive with improved rainfall. Australia is forecast for a 5.0Mt crop, an 11% increase on the year.</p><p></p><p>For 2022/23, Stratégie Grains, estimate a 7% rise in planted area for the EU, to 5.6Mha. It is worth noting that this would be in line with the five-year average (5.6Mha).</p><p></p><p>Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here <a href="https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-11-october-2021" target="_blank">https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-11-october-2021</a></p><p></p><p>Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here -</p><p><a href="https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch" target="_blank">https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch</a></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds, post: 7786782, member: 142623"] Monday 11 October Following requested feedback earlier in the year, we have amended our dials. The dials in this report reflect the analyst’s view of the possible direction in markets. The two-week (solid line) and six-month (dashed line) outlooks are based on the best available information at the time of writing. Please note, these views do not constitute trading advice and direction of markets may change due to new information since the time of writing. [ATTACH type="full"]990619[/ATTACH] [HEADING=2]UK focus[/HEADING] This morning, Defra estimated the 2021 UK wheat crop at 14.0Mt. This is a marked increase from the 9.7Mt harvested in 2020. This is below what many in industry, [URL='http://link.ahdb.org.uk/c/6/?T=NDUxNzg1OTU%3AcDEtYjIxMjg0LTRjNmM2NWNiNWIyODQ4M2ViMWU1NzEyZTQ2ZmZjMGFm%3AYW50aG9ueS5zcGVpZ2h0QGFoZGIub3JnLnVr%3AY29udGFjdC00ZTA2YTJlNzc0MzhlYTExYTgxMzAwMGQzYTg2ZDU0NS02YjY0MTQ1YWM5ODQ0YjdjOTZmNDU1NDc2MjlkYmRmNw%3AdHJ1ZQ%3ANA%3A%3AaHR0cHM6Ly9haGRiLm9yZy51ay9uZXdzL3VrLWhhcnZlc3QtcmV2aWV3ZWQtYXMtdXMtc3RvY2stcmVwb3J0cy1wdXNoZXMtZ2xvYmFsLXdoZWF0LWhpZ2hlci1ncmFpbi1tYXJrZXQtZGFpbHk_X2NsZGVlPVlXNTBhRzl1ZVM1emNHVnBaMmgwUUdGb1pHSXViM0puTG5WciZyZWNpcGllbnRpZD1jb250YWN0LTRlMDZhMmU3NzQzOGVhMTFhODEzMDAwZDNhODZkNTQ1LTZiNjQxNDVhYzk4NDRiN2M5NmY0NTU0NzYyOWRiZGY3JmVzaWQ9ZDRjMDFiNDEtN2QyYS1lYzExLWI2ZTYtMDAyMjQ4MWFkMWU2&K=RzxFW7tauWi8aJ5bE2sxCA']including [/URL]AHDB, had expected. Looking at the provisional English area, yields would need to have fallen below the five-year average to give a crop of this size. This differs from industry information and AHDB’s harvest reports. The barley crop is provisionally 7.1Mt, down from the 8.1Mt harvested last year. Only the UK production numbers are currently available. Details of the UK area and yields, plus the size of the oat and rapeseed crops will be published on Thursday morning. [URL='http://link.ahdb.org.uk/c/6/?T=NDUxNzg1OTU%3AcDEtYjIxMjg0LTRjNmM2NWNiNWIyODQ4M2ViMWU1NzEyZTQ2ZmZjMGFm%3AYW50aG9ueS5zcGVpZ2h0QGFoZGIub3JnLnVr%3AY29udGFjdC00ZTA2YTJlNzc0MzhlYTExYTgxMzAwMGQzYTg2ZDU0NS02YjY0MTQ1YWM5ODQ0YjdjOTZmNDU1NDc2MjlkYmRmNw%3AdHJ1ZQ%3ANQ%3A%3AaHR0cHM6Ly9haGRiLm9yZy51ay9jZXJlYWxzLW9pbHNlZWRzL3VrLWRlbGl2ZXJlZC1wcmljZXM_X2NsZGVlPVlXNTBhRzl1ZVM1emNHVnBaMmgwUUdGb1pHSXViM0puTG5WciZyZWNpcGllbnRpZD1jb250YWN0LTRlMDZhMmU3NzQzOGVhMTFhODEzMDAwZDNhODZkNTQ1LTZiNjQxNDVhYzk4NDRiN2M5NmY0NTU0NzYyOWRiZGY3JmVzaWQ9ZDRjMDFiNDEtN2QyYS1lYzExLWI2ZTYtMDAyMjQ4MWFkMWU2&K=69LODvSRv_Y7hZFHH7ttoA']Bread wheat prices[/URL] continued to rise last week. Full specification bread wheat (≥ 13% protein, 250s & 76kg/hl) delivered to the North West in November 2021 was quoted at £255.50/t, up £3.50/t from a week earlier. The latest price equates to a £53.00/t premium over Nov-21 futures. It is also the highest UK bread wheat price reported since late 2012. Feed barley (delivered E. Anglia, Nov-21) was £188.50/t last week, up £4.50/t. This was £13.00/t below feed wheat (same delivery), compared to a £16.50/t discount on 30 September. [ATTACH type="full"]990620[/ATTACH] [HEADING=2]Rapeseed focus[/HEADING] Rapeseed prices continued to surge last week, supported by strong demand and the continued tight outlook. Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-21) gained €23.25/t, Friday to Friday, closing on 8 October at €676.50/t. UK markets followed the trends seen in the European market, although trade remains exceedingly thin once more. Rapeseed delivered Erith (May-22) was quoted at £578.00/t, up £25.00/t on the previous week. Strong fundamental support in vegetable oil market, is a key underlying feature of the rapeseed market. With Northern Hemisphere crops tight, attention is on developments in the Southern Hemisphere. In the week to 6 October, conditions in Australia were positive with improved rainfall. Australia is forecast for a 5.0Mt crop, an 11% increase on the year. For 2022/23, Stratégie Grains, estimate a 7% rise in planted area for the EU, to 5.6Mha. It is worth noting that this would be in line with the five-year average (5.6Mha). Read the full AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds weekly market report here [URL]https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-11-october-2021[/URL] Subscribe to receive Market Report direct into your e-mail inbox here - [URL]https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch[/URL] [/QUOTE]
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