Amish Covid

Danllan

Member
Location
Sir Gar / Carms
The thing is, they are a very small minority and have a relatively young population - big families, lots of children - surrounded by the best medical care possible when needed, and their most serious cases did go to hospital, or die.

Our Government was in a Catch 22 situation, if they had gone with the herd immunity approach rather than lockdowns, they would have been slated by all and sundry when X 000s died. But choosing lockdowns they were too authoritarian...

Any government of any colour would have followed the advice from the CMO and CSO because to have done otherwise would have been guaranteed political suicide; whereas following it and there still being problems could be politically survivable, end of story.

At a slight tangent... can anyone recall any opposition leaders saying what the Government should be doing before that was the bleeding obvious due to hindsight; or any of the opposition leaders advising going against the advice of the CMO and CSO? Of course not, the reality is that anyone in government has to follow their advice.

On consideration, the herd immunity approach was most rational, but just couldn't happen in this society.
 
We could well have done the herd immunity thing. But this would have meant thousands more people ending up in hospital and then watching a good few die through lack of available ventilators, staff and other resources. Which political party wants to be held responsible for that?
 
The thing is, they are a very small minority and have a relatively young population - big families, lots of children - surrounded by the best medical care possible when needed, and their most serious cases did go to hospital, or die.

Our Government was in a Catch 22 situation, if they had gone with the herd immunity approach rather than lockdowns, they would have been slated by all and sundry when X 000s died. But choosing lockdowns they were too authoritarian...

Any government of any colour would have followed the advice from the CMO and CSO because to have done otherwise would have been guaranteed political suicide; whereas following it and there still being problems could be politically survivable, end of story.

At a slight tangent... can anyone recall any opposition leaders saying what the Government should be doing before that was the bleeding obvious due to hindsight; or any of the opposition leaders advising going against the advice of the CMO and CSO? Of course not, the reality is that anyone in government has to follow their advice.

On consideration, the herd immunity approach was most rational, but just couldn't happen
4th paragraph, actually the government's opposition here in NZ said exactly that in early March 2020 , that our borders needed to be shut down effectively if we were to have an effective elimination strategy, due hindsight now reflects how wrong and incompetent our government is, and not forgetting that nearly all spread and community cases outside Auckland especially the Delta strain are gang/drug related because the government has undermined the Police's ability to control the border effectively.
 

SteveHants

Member
Livestock Farmer
The thing is, they are a very small minority and have a relatively young population - big families, lots of children - surrounded by the best medical care possible when needed, and their most serious cases did go to hospital, or die.

Our Government was in a Catch 22 situation, if they had gone with the herd immunity approach rather than lockdowns, they would have been slated by all and sundry when X 000s died. But choosing lockdowns they were too authoritarian...

Any government of any colour would have followed the advice from the CMO and CSO because to have done otherwise would have been guaranteed political suicide; whereas following it and there still being problems could be politically survivable, end of story.

At a slight tangent... can anyone recall any opposition leaders saying what the Government should be doing before that was the bleeding obvious due to hindsight; or any of the opposition leaders advising going against the advice of the CMO and CSO? Of course not, the reality is that anyone in government has to follow their advice.

On consideration, the herd immunity approach was most rational, but just couldn't happen in this society.

There's two opposite approaches to herd immunity though:

The first is to just let the disease rip through the population and let millions die
The second is to properly lock down and allow time for treatments/vaccines to be developed and save lives in the process.

NZ chose an approach close to the latter, ours was much closer to the former. We never properly locked down and prolonged the experience whilst thousands died causing near maximal damage to lives and the economy.
 

robs1

Member
There's two opposite approaches to herd immunity though:

The first is to just let the disease rip through the population and let millions die
The second is to properly lock down and allow time for treatments/vaccines to be developed and save lives in the process.

NZ chose an approach close to the latter, ours was much closer to the former. We never properly locked down and prolonged the experience whilst thousands died causing near maximal damage to lives and the economy.
What do you class as a proper lockdown ?
 

SteveHants

Member
Livestock Farmer
What do you class as a proper lockdown ?
Closing of airports would have been a good start.

Very limited journeys for a few weeks (as per Europe). A proper track and trace system implemented by someone who knew what they were doing and not SERCO............

Short, sharp restrictions, airports closed until we got on top of it. Really easy to achieve on an island..........
 

robs1

Member
Closing of airports would have been a good start.

Very limited journeys for a few weeks (as per Europe). A proper track and trace system implemented by someone who knew what they were doing and not SERCO............

Short, sharp restrictions, airports closed until we got on top of it. Really easy to achieve on an island..........
If you look at the average over the world from first reported case to lockdown we were pretty average, apart from uk citizens/workers returning no one from abroad would have come in as everything was shut, only essential shops and businesses were open, not sure what else could have been closed, wales tried a short lockdown last year if I remember correctly, it didnt work.
Only the deluded think it could have been eradicated, look at Oz cases are now rising despite stopping anyone entering for a very long time, all governments have tried to slow the spread to a level health systems could cope with while trying not to completely destroying the economies, were mistakes made, in hindsight of course but we all make decisions based on facts available not on hindsight, sometimes we get lucky some not.
 

SteveHants

Member
Livestock Farmer
If you look at the average over the world from first reported case to lockdown we were pretty average, apart from uk citizens/workers returning no one from abroad would have come in as everything was shut, only essential shops and businesses were open, not sure what else could have been closed, wales tried a short lockdown last year if I remember correctly, it didnt work.
Only the deluded think it could have been eradicated, look at Oz cases are now rising despite stopping anyone entering for a very long time, all governments have tried to slow the spread to a level health systems could cope with while trying not to completely destroying the economies, were mistakes made, in hindsight of course but we all make decisions based on facts available not on hindsight, sometimes we get lucky some not.
Oz has the opposite problem - they locked down well and COVID cases were minimal, therefore the population is resistant to getting vaccinated and so, when travel is allowed to happen again, COVID cases rise............
 

Ben B

Member
Mixed Farmer
Oz has the opposite problem - they locked down well and COVID cases were minimal, therefore the population is resistant to getting vaccinated and so, when travel is allowed to happen again, COVID cases rise............
Steve has point, WA the big state in the west is fully lockdown to outsiders from other states, there is no covid there but now no one wants to get jab right or wrongly. Then you look at NSW and Sydney with a large caseload for us of 800 odd cases a day and their 80% jabbed!
 

robs1

Member
Oz has the opposite problem - they locked down well and COVID cases were minimal, therefore the population is resistant to getting vaccinated and so, when travel is allowed to happen again, COVID cases rise............
Cant see that you have made any suggestions that could have reduced deaths that didnt happen here, the media especially the bbc and captain hindsight were full of criticism and wanted more lockdown but couldnt actually suggest anything that was achievable
 
Cant see that you have made any suggestions that could have reduced deaths that didnt happen here, the media especially the bbc and captain hindsight were full of criticism and wanted more lockdown but couldnt actually suggest anything that was achievable
Sorry but lockdowns could have happened earlier in response to what was happening in Italy and china especially but Boris choose the economy over people. The public enquiry if it’s ever allowed to happen will show that quite clearly. There was no harm in the media pointing that out. It could be argued their making the same mistake now. Though I’m not one who’s would be arguing that.
 

robs1

Member
Sorry but lockdowns could have happened earlier in response to what was happening in Italy and china especially but Boris choose the economy over people. The public enquiry if it’s ever allowed to happen will show that quite clearly. There was no harm in the media pointing that out. It could be argued their making the same mistake now. Though I’m not one who’s would be arguing that.
If you look up the number of days from first reported case to lockdown most countries were within a few days of each other.
We were in france st the time and were in the same resort as the english guy who brought it back from Singapore, this was end of jan, apart from shutting the schools for a few days absolutely no precautions were taken, 2 days before france locked down in mid march we were in a bar having a meal in walks local plod kissing everyone he knew despite the official line by then of no handshaking etc, most countries followed a similar pattern, thefacts are out there, too many fall for the spin that everyone else locked down quicker, they didnt
 
If you look up the number of days from first reported case to lockdown most countries were within a few days of each other.
We were in france st the time and were in the same resort as the english guy who brought it back from Singapore, this was end of jan, apart from shutting the schools for a few days absolutely no precautions were taken, 2 days before france locked down in mid march we were in a bar having a meal in walks local plod kissing everyone he knew despite the official line by then of no handshaking etc, most countries followed a similar pattern, thefacts are out there, too many fall for the spin that everyone else locked down quicker, they didnt
Thanks for the advice.
I just looked 👍
France started its first lock down on March 17th England March 23rd.
it has to have played a part in the disparity of deaths between the two countries that our obesity levels and our population density.
 
If you look up the number of days from first reported case to lockdown most countries were within a few days of each other.
We were in france st the time and were in the same resort as the english guy who brought it back from Singapore, this was end of jan, apart from shutting the schools for a few days absolutely no precautions were taken, 2 days before france locked down in mid march we were in a bar having a meal in walks local plod kissing everyone he knew despite the official line by then of no handshaking etc, most countries followed a similar pattern, thefacts are out there, too many fall for the spin that everyone else locked down quicker, they didnt
Oh and those “few days” make a hell of a difference when discussing the evolution of a virus with in population.
as an aside the difference in the amount of people wearing masks in the supermarket today as apposed to Monday was very stark. Well over 90% today I would guess
 

Easedoff

Member
Livestock Farmer
Thanks for the advice.
I just looked 👍
France started its first lock down on March 17th England March 23rd.
it has to have played a part in the disparity of deaths between the two countries that our obesity levels and our population density.
I believe we were also a week behind Europe in infection rates.
Also.
The general consensus was that locking down to early would have had the ignoring of lockdown rules coming on too early, coinciding with when the infection rate was at its highest and overwhelming the NHS.
Probably still locked down too early anyways, which should have happened when more of us saw people dropping like flies all around us.
The blasé attitude to lockdown, which resulted in repeats of lockdown and other measures may not have occurred then.
Whatever.
I firmly believe, as can be seen in team sports time after time, unless all players play the same game and adhere to the tactics and aims, the team is on a loser.
 

robs1

Member
Thanks for the advice.
I just looked 👍
France started its first lock down on March 17th England March 23rd.
it has to have played a part in the disparity of deaths between the two countries that our obesity levels and our population density.
But if you look at first confirmed case France was earlier too so as I said first case to lockdown was very similar in most countries, people say we should have shut the borders, from the apartment we were in we could look down on the motorway to the mont blanc tunnel, there was a the normal amount of traffic passing along even two days after lockdown when we left .
I'm sure there are things every government would do differently in hindsight but nobody has faced a pandemic
 

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