Another nail in to the coffin of UK agriculture?

[Hilly]

Doesn't take into account that China has changed it's family size policy.

What’s the new size ?

 

[wanton dwarf]

What’s the new size ?

China allows three children in major policy shift​

China allows three children in major policy shift

The change comes after a move to a two-child limit failed to stop a decline in birth rates.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Cowabunga]

Doesn't take into account that China has changed it's family size policy.

It will not make any difference because Chinese standards of health, wealth and particularly women's education has them clearly averaging no more than 2.1 children per woman which will just about maintain the population. That is up from just over 1 in recent decades where the population shrank catastrophically, which was what was needed at one time but will cause drastic social problems if continued.
I believe the Prof covers this in more detail in another lecture.

 

[Cowabunga]

China allows three children in major policy shift​

China allows three children in major policy shift

The change comes after a move to a two-child limit failed to stop a decline in birth rates.

www.bbc.co.uk

Yes but what they allow and what they will get are not likely to be similar. In Europe we are allowed any number we like but since the Second World War the birthrate has declined steadily from around five to less than two children per couple as an average. The same can be seen in every part of the globe where health services improve, child mortality is lessened [linked to health and education] abject relative poverty declines, women's education improves, war is avoided and significantly, where the influence of strict religious doctrines are able to be ignored so that voluntary family planning is enabled.

 

[wanton dwarf]

Yes but what they allow and what they will get are not likely to be similar. In Europe we are allowed any number we like but since the Second World War the birthrate has declined steadily from around five to less than two children per couple as an average. The same can be seen in every part of the globe where health services improve, abject relative poverty declines, women's education improves, war is avoided and significantly, where the influence of strict religious doctrines are able to be ignored.

I have no idea why you apply Western standards and morales to other places in the world. It might well suite your argument to pretend that such ideas exist. But in China breaking the rules could lead to forced sterilisation.

Breaking China's One-Child Law

In an unprecedented crackdown, Chinese officials set out to sterilize 10,000 women by jailing their relatives until the women submitted.

www.marieclaire.com

Pretty obvious if China wants more children then they will apply "Incentives". I also doubt most of Arabia, Asia and Africa think as you or I.

 

[Cowabunga]

I have no idea why you apply Western standards and morales to other places in the world. It might well suite your argument to pretend that such ideas exist. But in China breaking the rules could lead to forced sterilisation.

Breaking China's One-Child Law

In an unprecedented crackdown, Chinese officials set out to sterilize 10,000 women by jailing their relatives until the women submitted.

www.marieclaire.com

Pretty obvious if China wants more children then they will apply "Incentives". I also doubt most of Arabia, Asia and Africa think as you or I.

I'm not applying any rules. Do you seriously doubt Professor Rosling? He was the world's top expert on population statistics and forecasting.

Neither can China dictate 3 children. It can dictate 'no more than', but that is hardly the issue. Their issue now is how to persuade women to actually average 2.1 children or more to stop the precipitous decline in their population.

The fact is that the birthrate is declining or stabilising almost everywhere that is developing to around 2.1 births per woman. Asia isn't quite there yet, outside of China, but it is on just as steady a course to it as the UK and Europe was in the late 20th Century. Africa is the only continent where this is not the case and is forecast to grow in a linear fashion for probably the next fifty years to actually double its population in the next half century unless their situation, their wealth, improves substantially during that time. Some of Africa's population growth will be offset eventually by a declining population in Europe and America. There is very unlikely to be more than 10billion people in the world and most of the 2.5 billion extra by 2050 or 2060 will be of old people already born and in Africa.

 

[Ffermer Bach]

I'm not applying any rules. Do you seriously doubt Professor Rosling? He was the world's top expert on population statistics and forecasting.

Neither can China dictate 3 children. It can dictate 'no more than', but that is hardly the issue. Their issue now is how to persuade women to actually average 2.1 children or more to stop the precipitous decline in their population.

The fact is that the birthrate is declining or stabilising almost everywhere that is developing to around 2.1 births per woman. Asia isn't quite there yet, outside of China, but it is on just as steady a course to it as the UK and Europe was in the late 20th Century. Africa is the only continent where this is not the case and is forecast to grow in a linear fashion for probably the next fifty years to actually double its population in the next half century unless their situation, their wealth, improves substantially during that time. Some of Africa's population growth will be offset eventually by a declining population in Europe and America. There is very unlikely to be more than 10billion people in the world and most of the 2.5 billion extra by 2050 or 2060 will be of old people already born and in Africa.

which is why I am in favour of aid from the wealthy West to Africa, I just worry that our aid money is not used well and is wasted. A lad I was in college with was a lecturer on VSO, his college was given a lot of machine tools for the workshop, however, they had no electricity! The line stopped before it got to the college. He said he spent all his time trying to get a charity to pay for the line to be extended, however he never managed it.

 

[Barleymow]

 

[toquark]

China allows three children in major policy shift​

China allows three children in major policy shift

The change comes after a move to a two-child limit failed to stop a decline in birth rates.

www.bbc.co.uk

It will make little difference for the same reason that Europe and N Americas birth rate has fallen. China is first world.

 

[Hjcarter]

I cannot believe the amount of planes I see flying over now at altitude .6 just a minute ago and that is constantly happening ,

That of course is true but we have a housing shortage how fo you suggest we square that circle ? Yes there are some previously developed sites that can be used but nowhere near enough to build the number we need.

Could always have less people..... Would help the housing problem.

 

[robs1]

Could always have less people..... Would help the housing problem.

Would need to stop immigration and too many useless workshy feckers on the sick here so need to allow some that will work in

 

[Derrick Hughes]

Have you run out of nails yet

 

[wanton dwarf]

It will make little difference for the same reason that Europe and N Americas birth rate has fallen. China is first world.

I think the Chinese would have more children if their government asks them to, for the same reason they did not.

 

[Y Fan Wen]

I have no idea why you apply Western standards and morales to other places in the world. It might well suite your argument to pretend that such ideas exist. But in China breaking the rules could lead to forced sterilisation.

Breaking China's One-Child Law

In an unprecedented crackdown, Chinese officials set out to sterilize 10,000 women by jailing their relatives until the women submitted.

www.marieclaire.com

Pretty obvious if China wants more children then they will apply "Incentives". I also doubt most of Arabia, Asia and Africa think as you or I.

Did you notice that link was dated 2010? I was talking to my guide about it and she said that even though the limit had been raised to 2 there was little sign of any increase and she personally was aiming for 1 in the future.

 

[wanton dwarf]

Did you notice that link was dated 2010? I was talking to my guide about it and she said that even though the limit had been raised to 2 there was little sign of any increase and she personally was aiming for 1 in the future.

It was 2 children and now 3. Yes I know it was some time ago.

 

[Sandpit Farm]

I have a document that has infographics and busts myths with industry data. Happy to share it if you message me your email address.

 

[DaveGrohl]

I have a document that has infographics and busts myths with industry data. Happy to share it if you message me your email address.

Can you not put it on here?

 

[Sandpit Farm]

Can you not put it on here?

Unfortunately not, it has links on it that wouldn't work on here.