Anybody considering suspending production for a year?

[warksfarmer]

Just looking at ours right now to think about seeds etc. It covers 27ha in total and pays an average of £303/ha. I have 17 parcels to deal with. It takes me 2 days to spray them off, a day to direct drill, a day to roll. I’ve only ever sprayed after establishment once and it didn’t work anyway. That’s it.
Options are AB1, AB9 and AB2.

 

[DrWazzock]

Ouch that’s told me. No i don’t expect you to use your savings to feed anyone but it might be time for you in 2022 to realise that your farm or your type of farming is no longer commercially viable. If you own your farm you can cash it in if you want or you can go holiday for a year or two. Others will continue but i pretty much reckon you’ll still be farming next year. I’m sure there’s lots of things the Government can do if it wants but my post isn’t a call to any Government it’s just saying ‘you really think you’re having it hard? ‘

For me the nub of it is the fertiliser supply situation for next year. We have no certainty of getting supplies at all. I think that’s quite a serious problem whether you are big or small. No amount of farmer goodwill can lessen the impact of that problem. It needs government action to sort it out now. What I’m saying is if the government can’t or won’t sort this out then I might as well suspend or greatly reduce production until they do. It’s a simple financial/logistical decision really not a political one. That was really the reason for the poll. My whinging about my falling standard of living was a side issue but still partly relevant.
I can’t believe that we are sitting here today with no hard information on fertiliser supply availability for next season. No updates, no reassurances, no idea if CF will still be operating, no idea whether we’ll still get product from Europe. What are DEFRA doing? Offering grants for wooden five bar gates.

 

[hally]

I thought it looked familiar
Great pictures by the way

Great cattle as well

 

[4course]

Seriously considering putting all our arable land into organic conversion and the no cutting spring barley option for 5 years, will leave more money than trying to grow crops ! Fert, chemical and fuel prices are going to make growing crops on poorer land an expensive occupation, more than likely making a loss !

cant see organic demand growing in an era of food scarcity caused by politics, war ,weather , costs rising etc

 

[unlacedgecko]

cant see organic demand growing in an era of food scarcity caused by politics, war ,weather , costs rising etc

It grows every year

 

[jpd]

unfortunately we buy food on price
not quality


and availability could be an issue

 

[unlacedgecko]

unfortunately we buy food on price
not quality

You might, but lots of other people don't.

 

[kiwi pom]

For me the nub of it is the fertiliser supply situation for next year. We have no certainty of getting supplies at all. I think that’s quite a serious problem whether you are big or small. No amount of farmer goodwill can lessen the impact of that problem. It needs government action to sort it out now. What I’m saying is if the government can’t or won’t sort this out then I might as well suspend or greatly reduce production until they do. It’s a simple financial/logistical decision really not a political one. That was really the reason for the poll. My whinging about my falling standard of living was a side issue but still partly relevant.
I can’t believe that we are sitting here today with no hard information on fertiliser supply availability for next season. No updates, no reassurances, no idea if CF will still be operating, no idea whether we’ll still get product from Europe. What are DEFRA doing? Offering grants for wooden five bar gates.

Its only April though, autumn planting is months away, I'm not sure there's reason to panic yet, a lot can happen in a few months, just compare what's happening today to January.
Don't know what's happening here, winter planting is getting under way, I haven't heard a lot about the fert situation, other than its gone up. The bulk trucks still seem to be hauling it from the ports to the stores though.

 

[kiwi pom]

depends on your options, a lot of what I'm looking at right now require drilling and cutting every year, regular feeding etc. margins are simple but the big rotational options are the ones that will take a lot of land out of production . its less work with no applications or harvest but it's certainly not do in year one and forget for 5 years mostly

I thought you were a contract farmer? How are you going to get landowners to pay you if you don't plant or harvest a crop?

 

[kiwi pom]

Just looking at ours right now to think about seeds etc. It covers 27ha in total and pays an average of £303/ha. I have 17 parcels to deal with. It takes me 2 days to spray them off, a day to direct drill, a day to roll. I’ve only ever sprayed after establishment once and it didn’t work anyway. That’s it.
Options are AB1, AB9 and AB2.

I'm reading that right, you get 300 quid a hectare for planting something and then not doing anything with it. Is that every year, what do you have to plant?

 

[ewald]

Obviously gas price/availability is the key to nitrogen fertiliser supply next season - the footage of war crimes coming out of Ukraine will harden the resolve of Western European states to stop financing Putin's war. Hence next winter will be very tight for energy supplies, agriculture will be one of many industries desperate for a slice of an increasingly small cake - can we make our political masters realise soon enough that we really need this stuff to grow our staple diet?

 

[thorpe]

Nr. Dolgellau in North Wales, Cader Idris in the background

your joking!

 

[Clive]

I thought you were a contract farmer? How are you going to get landowners to pay you if you don't plant or harvest a crop?

landowners don’t pay me - they share profit with us so its in my best interest to maximise that just as if it was my own farm

CSS options (especially rotational ones) still requires management and operation, its not set-a-side

 

[gone up the hill]

Its only April though, autumn planting is months away, I'm not sure there's reason to panic yet, a lot can happen in a few months, just compare what's happening today to January.
Don't know what's happening here, winter planting is getting under way, I haven't heard a lot about the fert situation, other than its gone up. The bulk trucks still seem to be hauling it from the ports to the stores though.

At the moment there is still Fert and the raw ingredients for it but if the sanctions are not lifted in the next few months then the world will be 45% short of the Fert needed to grow grass/grain etc crops by this time next year.

Also for the UK fuel will become a big problem by this time next year and very likely rationed as currently the UK is still buying Russian oil and it accounts for 20% of UK oil supply but buying Russian oil has been banned by Boris from 1st Jan 2023 and they have no idea/plan on how to replace this 20% either and the UK is already struggling to keep supply above demand with most fuel stations in the UK already running out of fuel every 2/3 days for 24/48 hours at a time and some towns are going 2/3 days without any fuel stations having either diesel or unleaded and that's before they ban the 20% of Russian oil we currently are using!!

There are almighty problems across the board coming down the road as things stand!

 

[ajd132]

landowners don’t pay me - they share profit with us so its in my best interest to maximise that just as if it was my own farm

CSS options (especially rotational ones) still requires management and operation, its not set-a-side

Surely they aren’t going to pay you a full contracting charge and profit share though?
An ab15 at £550ish total output is only going to leave you both with £225 if you are 50:50?

 

[Clive]

Surely they aren’t going to pay you a full contracting charge and profit share though?
An ab15 at £550ish total output is only going to leave you both with £225 if you are 50:50?

not planning ab15 but as long as a rent and operation fixed cost equ can be achieved whilst leaving us with good entry to high margin cereals thats better than growing inconsistent and marginal break crop area

will whatsapp you

 

[kiwi pom]

landowners don’t pay me - they share profit with us so its in my best interest to maximise that just as if it was my own farm

CSS options (especially rotational ones) still requires management and operation, its not set-a-side

But if you're not planting or harvesting anything for them, why do they need you in the first place?
Get a contractor in to drill some wild flowers (or whatever's required) on an acre basis and keep all the money for themselves, doesn't sound that hard, or is that too much for them?

 

[Clive]

But if you're not planting or harvesting anything for them, why do they need you in the first place?
Get a contractor in to drill some wild flowers (or whatever's required) on an acre basis and keep all the money for themselves, doesn't sound that hard, or is that too much for them?

because im still harvesting crops on the majority of the farm and the css options im consider involve more than “drilling a few flowers” so yes the landowner needs a contractor to achieve that ………… aka me !

 

[B'o'B]

Surely they aren’t going to pay you a full contracting charge and profit share though?
An ab15 at £550ish total output is only going to leave you both with £225 if you are 50:50?

Don’t forget you get 5 payments for 4 years fallow which gives the equivalent of £711/ha for each fallow year

 

[unlacedgecko]

Don’t forget you get 5 payments for 4 years fallow which gives the equivalent of £711/ha for each fallow year

Why bother farming?