Anyone good with numbers ?? Can you explain this to me ?

[cousinjack]

Two charts taken from farmers guardian.

I get the idea of what they are trying to say…. I just can’t see where the actual figures come from ??

 

[cousinjack]

My first assumption here is that in the lower left corner, it should read “grain at £208/t”. As opposed to “nitrogen at £208/t”

so assuming a sales price of £208/t
Are they saying you can get 6.25 tonnes per ha with no nitrogen ??

I’d be delighted with that

 

[Zippy768]

It does rather suggest that with no N and even with just £75/acre of sprays maybe, one could achieve 3t/acre of ww. @£200/t.
Excellent news. They guarantee this kind of result?

 

[cousinjack]

Assumption no.2

this is purely looking at margin of increased yield vs fertiliser cost..

however it doesn't state which nitrogen product it is based on so I am assuming AN (34%) at £700/t

although it could be urea ???

even so I can’t make the figures stack up

 

[capfits]

It says nothing more than you know yourself.
That is if you had bought smart at low price then crack on as normal, and if you have not then you may have to trim your input to get economic return/response.
Do you bit of sensitivity analysis at different output prices and adapt as results allow.

Edit
Actually more useful for planning planting cropping 2023 if you think about it.

 

[e3120]

I disagree with the premise completely. The buying cost is now history and the bill has to be paid regardless. It's your personal forecast of the cost of replacement nitrogen that should influence usage.

I wouldn't expect an unbiased view from yara anyway, not that i would do anything different if I could influence them.

Edited to add: unless you've none bought, in which it case it's all to play for and good luck!

 

[Humble Village Farmer]

Looking at those charts, why would you put more than 100kg on wheat and 80kg on barley?

"Yield is king" I suppose.

 

[Lincsman]

My first assumption here is that in the lower left corner, it should read “grain at £208/t”. As opposed to “nitrogen at £208/t”

so assuming a sales price of £208/t
Are they saying you can get 6.25 tonnes per ha with no nitrogen ??

I’d be delighted with that

Wont know until you try it, on a good fertile field with correct weather its perfectly possible

 

[Wombat]

Any one know if its going to rain this April as that will have more effect than the bloody rates.

 

[cousinjack]

Any one know if its going to rain this April as that will have more effect than the bloody rates.

Yes, it’ll rain…..

well it will down here in Cornwall anyway !!

 

[Gong Farmer]

It's saying the more expensive the fertiliser, the lower the profit from it.

Definite deficit of excrement here, Holmes.

 

[JonT]

It's a pretty blunt tool which, I think, merely shows gross ouput per ha (yield x selling price) less N costs. I assume there's some yield response to differing rates of AN factored in. Obviously not GM as no other variable costs accounted for.

Simple calculation here - happy to attach spreadsheet for people to play with if someone tells me how to attach a file to a post?

	Early	50:50:00	Late		Yield	10.0​
AN Cost	£ 208	£ 454	£ 700		Wheat Price/tonne	£ 200
Output	£ 2,000	£ 2,000	£ 2,000		AN Price	£ 208
Fert Cost	£ 96	£ 211	£ 325		N KG per Ha	160​
Margin over N	£ 1,904	£ 1,789	£ 1,675		KG Product	464​