Anything below bus pass

[rob1]

But you know what I respect you for all that. I've met people in professions who have tidy pensions and they don't know what to do with themselves after taking early retirement. So it can't be both ways - if it keeps you fit and well etc.

I would say there does need to be room enough for the upcoming ones to grow as it were but that doesn't mean taking the jobs the old ones like doing. Walter may say scraping out doesn't advance the human condition but just because a job is routine it doesn't mean its worthless or beneath anyone. I think a balance is good - my old man will go out to lunch and away on more holidays with mum now they are both 70 plus, but he doesn't want to lose contact with the farm as that actually keeps him young.

I was cutting a hedge for a chap who buys hay and straw from me to sell into the hprse market, 20 odd years ago a round bale rolled down his loader on a tractor with just a roll bar and snapped his spine, he is in a wheel chair and is amazing what he can do, has to wear a adult nappy as he has no control of bodily function,he said today he saw his consultant who told him he is the only one in the hospital spinal unit with him that is still alive, all rest died long ago because they didnt keep active and thus force the blood round their legs, the trouble with farmers giving up is their bodies dont adjust to doing nothing and soon fail, my old man started retiring the day I left school he was 58 then and took till he was 68 to stop completely he lived till 94, I intend doing the same and give up bit by bit

 

[theboytheboy]

http://freakonomics.com/2012/01/17/retirement-kills-a-new-marketplace-podcast/

.........The study showed that for every extra year of early retirement, workers lost about two months of life expectancy. Nor is this the first study to show a strong relationship between early retirement and earlier death

 

[Old Boar]

I think a vital point has been missed.
Many farmers farm into old age because they love farming. They have spent their lives with animals or tractors, seeing the progress of the farm though the years, the changes in technology, but behind it all is the love of the countryside.
I have to have animals around me. I dont feel like me unless I can go out and talk to a cow, a pig, or even if pushed, a sheep. I have sort of retired, but have cows, sheep, pigs, chickens here on the farm, and their needs come above mine, so even if I dont feel like it because my body is falling to bits, I go out and tend to them, and feel better, both mentally and physically.
If you love doing something, why stop?

 

[GTB]

I believe the ones leaving the land as it 'doesn't work' without subsidies are the ones that need to go. Of course it can work. All it needs is vision and an entrepreneurial attitude. Nothing stands still. Cattle farming 80's style will simply not work today. Same with sheep. The old boys are soon going to be up against youngsters with high performance ewes and most of them not only won't get a yearly handout, they will be paying rent as well. And they'll still do better. Because they have no choice.

Let's face it. Anyone with 200ac plus really doesn't need to get out of bed in the morning to have a basic standard of living. Throw in a few enviro schemes and sell the grass to sheep or dairy farmers and you are quids in for doing absolutely nothing more than organising hedge cutter and filling in some forms. This is the reality and I'm in no way saying that most farmers do that but maybe under the current rules they should seriously consider it rather than flogging a dead horse so they don't get laughed at by their neighbours.

I'll get my coat. Again.

What's 80s style cattle farming?

 

[FonterraFarmer]

I've just had the results for my farm from the Welsh national benchmarking scheme. It makes interesting reading. Since I'm a dairy farmer it is comparing my business with other dairy farms also in the scheme.

What is striking is that the bottom 25%, that's one in four dairy farmers made a LOSS after subsidies and all, of 16 pence per litre in 2016 and 12 ppl up until March 2017. It makes me cringe. The average herd size was around 250 cows for all categories.
My interpretation was that since the top 25% only made 3ppl profit until March 2017 [top 5% 8ppl] that to make a profit at all in any of those two years, it took being well into the top 50%. In other words to do better than break even one had to be above averagely efficient.

THAT is the reality of farming in the UK.

Let's not even mention personal drawings for something like a house mortgage out of farming income/loss.

I did one of them a few years back, but stuffed up, the person responsible for getting the information returned with " please explain what you are doing"......

 

[Dead Rabbits]

When the baler-man said he could turn up that afternoon, but "all the gates better be left open" I was naturally curious; turns out he'd recently had a hip replacement - baling was no problem, but opening gates was beyond him.

I can't be the only person to know old farmers who have to be hoisted into their tractors each morning, (although perhaps I am the only one to think it an ineffably sad waste of life - 'scraping out' does not advance the human condition).

The UK (unlike France, which has a different interpretation) designs agricultural support to encourage farmers to carry on for as long as they are physically able - hence the average age of UK farmers is now 59 (and rising); anyone below bus pass age is, by this measure, still a young farmer.

If, instead of amending its farm support system, the UK abolishes it will this inject fresh blood onto its farms? Or hasten their descent into decrepitude?

Lots of wishful (not to say envious) thinking on this, from youngsters whose parents ought to know better - in 2015 the average farm made £2,100 from agriculture and £28,300 from subsidies. The typical cereal farmer actually lost £9,500 by farming cereals.

Few (if any) youngsters are dim enough to wish to farm under these economic conditions. And if they did, their wives or girlfriends would, quite sensibly, stop them.

(I question whether many of the old guys will, either, but that's a different question; the French have an expression for that - pour faute de mieux - that points out that youngsters have alternatives that old guys no longer possess).

The UK abandoning subsidies means it also abandons its farms, rather than rejuvenating them.

It's a sun setting industry, more people are leaving than are joining. The inter generational transfer of farms isn't happening like it used to. There is no clear path to farm ownership/management for people with non farm backgrounds. Which is where the majority of new farmers will come from.

It doesn't have to be like this, but it is. True, it is partly due to increased barrier to entry, lower returns. The old farmers can't afford to get out and the new can't afford to get in. The idea that subs will somehow fix all the problems in agriculture is completely false. Subs here and there stifle innovation and promote the decay of agriculture and the communities it takes place in.

 

[Tarw Coch]

When the baler-man said he could turn up that afternoon, but "all the gates better be left open" I was naturally curious; turns out he'd recently had a hip replacement - baling was no problem, but opening gates was beyond him.

I can't be the only person to know old farmers who have to be hoisted into their tractors each morning, (although perhaps I am the only one to think it an ineffably sad waste of life - 'scraping out' does not advance the human condition).

The UK (unlike France, which has a different interpretation) designs agricultural support to encourage farmers to carry on for as long as they are physically able - hence the average age of UK farmers is now 59 (and rising); anyone below bus pass age is, by this measure, still a young farmer.

If, instead of amending its farm support system, the UK abolishes it will this inject fresh blood onto its farms? Or hasten their descent into decrepitude?

Lots of wishful (not to say envious) thinking on this, from youngsters whose parents ought to know better - in 2015 the average farm made £2,100 from agriculture and £28,300 from subsidies. The typical cereal farmer actually lost £9,500 by farming cereals.

Few (if any) youngsters are dim enough to wish to farm under these economic conditions. And if they did, their wives or girlfriends would, quite sensibly, stop them.

(I question whether many of the old guys will, either, but that's a different question; the French have an expression for that - pour faute de mieux - that points out that youngsters have alternatives that old guys no longer possess).

The UK abandoning subsidies means it also abandons its farms, rather than rejuvenating them.

Where do you get those figures from? 28,000 sub at approx £80/acre would be around a 350 acre farm, im surprised that average farm size is that high and even more surprised profit is that low.

 

[rob1]

http://freakonomics.com/2012/01/17/retirement-kills-a-new-marketplace-podcast/

.........The study showed that for every extra year of early retirement, workers lost about two months of life expectancy. Nor is this the first study to show a strong relationship between early retirement and earlier death

Despite agreeing with that I know a chap who took early retirement in his early 50's who is now 79 so it doesnt always hold true, mind he worked in the local council office so actually gave up work when he joined at 25

 

[Deereone]

What is the average age of 'managing directors' (all companies) in the UK?

I'd imagine it's similar, but we get especially hung up over it in agriculture because in most cases 'boss' = family 'issues'.

You miss the point. Walter referred to a tractor driver with a hip op. I think his definition of farmer was the all encompassing -worker on the land.
Farming can be far more physically demanding than a lot of other jobs, and on small farms there is often no option for the elders but to do what needs doing. Company CEOs are usually in a very different environment.
Even with a good pensions farm owners are encouraged to keep farming for IHT reasons and I for one would like to see this changed.

 

[Clive]

When the baler-man said he could turn up that afternoon, but "all the gates better be left open" I was naturally curious; turns out he'd recently had a hip replacement - baling was no problem, but opening gates was beyond him.

I can't be the only person to know old farmers who have to be hoisted into their tractors each morning, (although perhaps I am the only one to think it an ineffably sad waste of life - 'scraping out' does not advance the human condition).

The UK (unlike France, which has a different interpretation) designs agricultural support to encourage farmers to carry on for as long as they are physically able - hence the average age of UK farmers is now 59 (and rising); anyone below bus pass age is, by this measure, still a young farmer.

If, instead of amending its farm support system, the UK abolishes it will this inject fresh blood onto its farms? Or hasten their descent into decrepitude?

Lots of wishful (not to say envious) thinking on this, from youngsters whose parents ought to know better - in 2015 the average farm made £2,100 from agriculture and £28,300 from subsidies. The typical cereal farmer actually lost £9,500 by farming cereals.

Few (if any) youngsters are dim enough to wish to farm under these economic conditions. And if they did, their wives or girlfriends would, quite sensibly, stop them.

(I question whether many of the old guys will, either, but that's a different question; the French have an expression for that - pour faute de mieux - that points out that youngsters have alternatives that old guys no longer possess).

The UK abandoning subsidies means it also abandons its farms, rather than rejuvenating them.

one things is for sure - something has to change !

Senario 1

My guess is as the older generation die / retire (they have to eventually) the demand for land (rent) falls dramatically and in doing so the goal posts to profitable production shift significantly triggering big farming profits and a "gold rush" of younger people wanting to get into it again

Senario 2

People and skill will be increasingly be replaced by machines and the larger corporate farm will get larger (like massively larger farming entire counties) and farming will be done by robots under the control of PLC size businesses

 

[PSQ]

Scenario 1 - 'corporate'* farmers would slit their wrists before they let their "competitors gain an extra acres advantage" over them. Their vanity would make them all bid for every acre, thus keeping rents sky high. But that's not a scenario, thats the current reality, and it won't encourage 'new blood' but foster greed. Plus ca change.

Scenario 2 - see Scenario 1 above. Corporate farming gets bigger, ego's inflate, efficiency and profits plummet off the face of a cliff, but the boss will feature prominently in the pages of Farmers Weekly with the usual media tarts. Just do what you were told on the farm leadership course: turn up your collar, and grin like a fool for the camera.

*Corporate = Coprophagia = "the consumption of faeces"

 

[Clive]

Scenario 1 - 'corporate'* farmers would slit their wrists before they let their "competitors gain an extra acres advantage" over them. Their vanity would make them all bid for every acre, thus keeping rents sky high. But that's not a scenario, thats the current reality, and it won't encourage 'new blood' but foster greed. Plus ca change.

Scenario 2 - see Scenario 1 above. Corporate farming gets bigger, ego's inflate, efficiency and profits plummet off the face of a cliff, but the boss will feature prominently in the pages of Farmers Weekly with the usual media tarts. Just turn up your collar, and grin like a fool for the camera.

*Corporate = Corprophagia = "the consumption of faeces"

you cant out bid when you are dead ! the old guys cant and wont go on for ever that is certain - its certainly the current scenario however but simple supply / demand dictates it will change when there are say 20% of today's farmers left in 20 yrs time as the rest got old and died with no successors

 

[Clive]

what wont change is that people will still need to eat - someone will feed them ............... probably the robotic corporates as the human skill will simply not exist

 

[Walterp]

It's a sun setting industry, more people are leaving than are joining. The inter generational transfer of farms isn't happening like it used to. There is no clear path to farm ownership/management for people with non farm backgrounds. Which is where the majority of new farmers will come from.

It doesn't have to be like this, but it is. True, it is partly due to increased barrier to entry, lower returns. The old farmers can't afford to get out and the new can't afford to get in. The idea that subs will somehow fix all the problems in agriculture is completely false. Subs here and there stifle innovation and promote the decay of agriculture and the communities it takes place in.

The first point is valid, can be borne out by evidence - in the 1930's UK farmers began to encourage their children to become teachers, lawyers or workmen, anything but the relative poverty of farming as it then was.

That trend remained until fairly recently, when rising prosperity meant that UK farmers became interested in the fate of the farm. Before, it didn't much matter.

The second point is a political viewpoint; there is no evidence at all to justify it. Rather the opposite.

The trend of encouraging the bright kids to get a job meant that - for a generation - farms were staffed by the dimmest sons, not the brightest. (That also explains the number of elderly, not-very-bright, and reactionary UK commentators on TFF).

Have a look at Continental farm policy, which tries hard to encourage labour participation, precisely to maintain rural employment of bright and able kids who would, otherwise, leave.

 

[Walterp]

one things is for sure - something has to change !

There is a third scenario - the UK follows the French experience, with rising farm size propelled by cheaper land prices and the forced rental of land that entire farming families wish to continue to own, but not to farm (because they are doing something more profitable instead).

 

[Walterp]

Where do you get those figures from? 28,000 sub at approx £80/acre would be around a 350 acre farm, im surprised that average farm size is that high and even more surprised profit is that low.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjn1b_Rr5DXAhUDHxoKHcPoDVIQFggwMAA&url=https://fullfact.org/economy/farming-subsidies-uk/&usg=AOvVaw2tlOZVP8_FbQSJMV_xcqg3

The average farm size in Wales is almost precisely 350 acres. I think it is roughly half and half owned and rented, but the Aber survey would have more stats on this.

What the figures demonstrate, I suggest, is that UK ag is more unstable than we think.

 

[KMA]

I think a vital point has been missed.
Many farmers farm into old age because they love farming. They have spent their lives with animals or tractors, seeing the progress of the farm though the years, the changes in technology, but behind it all is the love of the countryside.
I have to have animals around me. I dont feel like me unless I can go out and talk to a cow, a pig, or even if pushed, a sheep. I have sort of retired, but have cows, sheep, pigs, chickens here on the farm, and their needs come above mine, so even if I dont feel like it because my body is falling to bits, I go out and tend to them, and feel better, both mentally and physically.
If you love doing something, why stop?

Can't like this enough, for me it was/is the sheer variety of work I was doing, now I've replaced it with transforming a swamp into something productive using my imagination and hard work. I miss my cattle, not so much the sheep. Only part of my day that is routine is letting the dogs out in the morning while I put their breakfast in their bowls, take the air and soil temps and refill the bird feeders. currently making a bed to put in some winter pansies Nell's mum gave us, and the second planting of next year's garlic.

I certainly felt like I'd failed previous generations and especially my son when I had to sell my farms following divorce but personally I'm a lot happier and my son has a smallholding and a hell of a good small flock of sheep. Ag was losing it's enjoyment as I was spending most of my time on paperwork instead of a tractor.

TBH Clive, scenario 2 might work down where you are but not on most of the agricultural land in the UK and I suspect huge areas of Europe, the problem I see is that we're rapidly losing all the truly skilled workers we're going to need at some point in the future, (unless the whole population turns vegan).

 

[Colin]

Walter, is that figure of only twenty one hundred profit correct...?

You farm all year for 2,100........that's only like.......nothing.

In Scotland total profit from farming is less than total support payments, it's how govt keep us in line

 

[Pond digger]

Walter, is that figure of only twenty one hundred profit correct...?

You farm all year for 2,100........that's only like.......nothing.

That’s after they’ve paid themselves a 50k salary.

 

[Clive]

There is a third scenario - the UK follows the French experience, with rising farm size propelled by cheaper land prices and the forced rental of land that entire farming families wish to continue to own, but not to farm (because they are doing something more profitable instead).

but without new technology who does the work ? robots will be needed as the human skill will be mostly dead