Are There Really Less Lambs?

[Frank-the-Wool]

Perhaps someone cleverer than me could put up a Poll on how many lambs there are left on farms.
The prices indicate that numbers are indeed very short, however the slaughter statistics are significantly lower since August.

We would have less lambs to slaughter between now and April, but would have more ewe lambs kept back for replacements. This may explain some of the difference, but not all.
Some of those ewe lambs could get killed if they are £150 plus in the Spring!
The price of ewes while satisfactory is nowhere near as dear as the lambs and yet if anything was to be short it is them as many more older ewes have been retained for breeding.

The butchers and wholesalers we supply have reduced the amount of lamb due to the cost and are 30 to 50% less than two years ago, last year was skewed by Covid when numbers doubled. If as seems likely the export market is taking up all the slack then prices should remain very good.
I hope that is the situation.

 

[LAMBCHOPS]

Factors.My view cost of feed has meant more going to stores. WeIght paying more so lambs been kept heavier and not marketed as soon. .Big price late last year means more being kept over. Good green crops grown This year means plenty of feed to keep lambs later. I think they are there just been short in fat due to above?

 

[Pistonbroke]

One local dealer has been buying continental store lambs to keep until the spring on behalf of Waitrose. Says he's not the only one doing it for them around the country and other supermarkets are doing the same to avoid big price jump

 

[JSmith]

I think @LAMBCHOPS has it pretty much right but I don’t think there’s a glut of lambs to be had in the spring, the good price means a lot of lambs are being drawn as they come ready now instead of just being tickled along!! Spoken with several men that are looking through bottom end lambs bought September time that have come ready an being sold at 40kg, lambs have done well an trade will bring them out as they come fit

 

[Top Tip.]

This is totally anecdotal but I drove from he north of Scotland to the tip of Anglesey a fortnight ago,I was very surprised how few store lambs I saw in the roadside fields,saw plenty ewes but very few fields of lambs.

 

[LAMBCHOPS]

I think @LAMBCHOPS has it pretty much right but I don’t think there’s a glut of lambs to be had in the spring, the good price means a lot of lambs are being drawn as they come ready now instead of just being tickled along!! Spoken with several men that are looking through bottom end lambs bought September time that have come ready an being sold at 40kg, lambs have done well an trade will bring them out as they come fit

We are in that position lambs bought early could be cashed at 40/42s and would leave a profit but replacing them I have little financial faith at the present store price. After all the work put in hauling treating dipping etc will leave them get heavier and only pull real heavies out (20 kg plus DW) Was going to sell and buy back but won't now. Plenty of keep too.

 

[LAMBCHOPS]

One local dealer has been buying continental store lambs to keep until the spring on behalf of Waitrose. Says he's not the only one doing it for them around the country and other supermarkets are doing the same to avoid big price jump

Be interesting to know what end price is agreed? Stores coming in are pretty hefty price to start with.

 

[yellowbelly]

Perhaps someone cleverer than me could put up a Poll on how many lambs there are left on farms.

A bit like that one that Defra do every December

The figures it produces never seem to add up - probably because us farmers are not very good at counting or are a 'touch cavalier' with the truth

In the interests of research, we have more left now than we had this time last year, not significantly more but nontheless, more.

There's been plenty of grass, a lot later than normal, and we've access to more cover crops, so we've just let them 'tickle along.

 

[spin cycle]

IIRC from last ahdb thing i read exports were down but imports were down and there's been less lambs forward this yr so far...i'm a bit puzzled TBH

 

[neilo]

Be interesting to know what end price is agreed? Stores coming in are pretty hefty price to start with.

As I’ve posted previously, local guys on that job are telling me that Waitrose are buying the lambs as stores, then paying the finishers on a headage basis (with bonuses for later finishing). They have hugely increased the numbers they did that way last year.
M&S have expanded their numbers the same, but don’t know if others are doing similar. They are all buyers that will be missing, or less desperate, in April.

Tesco however, the biggest retailer, will be buying more than usual, having p*ssed off most of their contracted producers.

 

[yellowbelly]

IIRC from last ahdb thing i read exports were down but imports were down and there's been less lambs forward this yr so far...i'm a bit puzzled TBH

I don't know why they bother having a department that turns out statistics and does forecasts as they never seem to be able to be very accurate. Better than nowt, maybe

 

[spin cycle]

I don't know why they bother having a department that turns out statistics and does forecasts as they never seem to be able to be very accurate. Better than nowt, maybe

think nowt might be better TBH

 

[exmoor dave]

IIRC from last ahdb thing i read exports were down but imports were down and there's been less lambs forward this yr so far...i'm a bit puzzled TBH

Me too!

A few weeks ago, on the same day I read from AHDB that there were border issues for exports.

But from another source, export grade lambs (the well fleshed ones) were in big demand

Since had a couple processor texts looking for lambs for the light lamb job (spain/ Portugal?)


Seems to be alot of stubble turnips gone in locally that haven't been there before (on arable ground), but no lambs on them yet.

 

[Jerry]

This is totally anecdotal but I drove from he north of Scotland to the tip of Anglesey a fortnight ago,I was very surprised how few store lambs I saw in the roadside fields,saw plenty ewes but very few fields of lambs.

Similar story. Drive to Cornwall one day. Kent the next. Barely saw any sheep let alone store lambs. Even in the South Downs.

They were long drives with the box in the back but box was full of nice lambs each return journey.

 

[gatepost]

I don't see a lot of lambs around here parked up for the spring, and the trade surely is good enough to draw out stock that is fit now, a lot of fairly light lambs sold earlier on and a lot gone abroad out of the stores.

 

[Pistonbroke]

Be interesting to know what end price is agreed? Stores coming in are pretty hefty price to start with.

Waitrose are paying for the lambs and the keep

 

[Al R]

Waitrose are paying for the lambs and the keep

Any ram lambs?

 

[Pistonbroke]

Any ram lambs?

Texel cross ewe lambs as far as I know. Was buying in Hereford £100 to £110

 

[Six Dogs]

Talking to our scanner even last year he was saying the “Brexit” fear had seen a lot of smaller/medium flocks dispersed.
Not that many have expanded and the beeeding sales around here have seen significant drop in numbers so I genuinely don’t think the Uk sheep breeding flock is anywhere near the size it’s speculated to be.
We dropped the Tesco contract 3 years ago when it became clearly apparent it was biased one way in their favour and so did several others

 

[unlacedgecko]

There's also less and less in the way of willing competent labour.