Are we at the start of a major recession ?

[br jones]

With the car industry dying a death and corovirus are we in for a worldwide depression

Some of the world's biggest economies are on the brink of recession

A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business' Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here.

www.cnn.com

 

[M-J-G]

It's been a long time coming considering the last void was covered with a layer of twigs and leaves, but the hole hasn't gone away.

 

[wanton dwarf]

I think we might be in for an inflation blip.

Have to see how 4 weeks of only 50% of usual shipments out of China affects the UK and other importers the UK relies upon. Can China recover and in what timescale ?

JIT manufacturing is probably going to look very silly in a few months time.

Unfortunately UK weather means UK harvests will be poor at the worst time possible ..

 

[Danllan]

The great joy with which many Europhiles have told us that the UK has relatively little manufacturing industry must, surely, be increased hugely by the realisation that we will not be anywhere near as badly affected as those with a greater reliance on Chinese products to enable their industries. Won't they?

 

[averageguy54]

It's going to get interesting, I think.

 

[Mek]

The great joy with which many Europhiles have told us that the UK has relatively little manufacturing industry must, surely, be increased hugely by the realisation that we will not be anywhere near as badly affected as those with a greater reliance on Chinese products to enable their industries. Won't they?

As we have relatively little manufacturing industry we are still reliant on other countries for our product and those countries will still be affected by their reliance on Chinese product. Prices will therefore rise.

 

[caveman]

Better start washing pants, socks and tee shirts instead of binning them.

 

[Johnnyboxer]

Better start washing pants, socks and tee shirts instead of binning them.

We already do
Can’t chuck good stuff away

 

[manhill]

Better start washing pants, socks and tee shirts instead of binning them.

Or wear them inside out once before washing!

 

[Danllan]

As we have relatively little manufacturing industry we are still reliant on other countries for our product and those countries will still be affected by their reliance on Chinese product. Prices will therefore rise.

Yes, we're all aware of the butterfly affect & also all aware of the principle of insulation by degree.

 

[caveman]

We already do
Can’t chuck good stuff away

Going out after dark to check the bins along the street.

 

[robs1]

As we have relatively little manufacturing industry we are still reliant on other countries for our product and those countries will still be affected by their reliance on Chinese product. Prices will therefore rise.

If you look at the figures we still are in the top ten of industrial countries, might be a blessing in disguise, can just see all those uni grads getting stuck into proper jobs

 

[JP1]

Serious supply issues across the board already and the impact is only just being seen. That's the practical bit

On the economic front this could balloon in to a global recession

I am old enough to remember how the last two recessions felt

 

[caveman]

Anybody could be forgiven for thinking this could be a "manufactured recession".
The world is running out of blocks to build another layer under the pyramid.

 

[The Agrarian]

Ftse futures opened down another six pc, and US down five. Some traders are going to be seriously burned by the morning.

 

[M-J-G]

Down 8.5%

 

[Danllan]

History indicates that the more 'theoretical' wealth suffers the greater relative value essentials gain. That should mean good news for farmers in such a scenario.

However, I'm not convinced there will be a major recession, still less a depression as mentioned in the OP. Following the disease's peak, there will be a massive economic boost from government and consumers as the 'relief' kicks in. This will be, in no small part, spurred on by the probable freeing up of a lot of residential properties and its corollary, a projected decrease in required future NHS spending. A case of it really being an 'ill wind'.


Still, I may be entirely wrong and it could all go t!ts up, but I don't think so.

 

[TelesnaAg]

Yes

Ant...

 

[TelesnaAg]

It's been a long time coming considering the last void was covered with a layer of twigs and leaves, but the hole hasn't gone away.

Exactly

Ant....

 

[The Agrarian]

Depends on what happens to credit. A sharp contraction in demand, which results in some businesses going to the wall, and job losses, could trigger a further contraction in demand as people then get scared of spending. A falling stock market has been shown to have the effect of making people feel less wealthy, which hurts demand. People with lots of personal credit may panic. Too early to say if those feedbacks will find traction. But the risk is there.

Equally, yes, it could spring back and recoup much of the lost gdp in subsequent quarters. But only if it's a short, shallow dip.