- Location
- Stoneleigh
Australian farmers could plant the largest area to canola (rapeseed) since 2017-18. This is according to the Australian government department ABARES. High prices and good soil moisture in many states are encouraging farmers to plant rapeseed. At 2.97Mha, the area is 596Kha more than for the 2020/21 season and potentially the third largest on record.
Yields are expected to be above average after good rain in Western Australia, New South Wales and Queensland. Currently, these good conditions are expected to offset a drier period for crops in Victoria and South Australia. These two states are reliant on winter rainfall. But, the outlook is for above average rainfall in most growing areas over the next three months.
Above average yields would put production at 4.21Mt, 4% higher than 2020/21. There’s a long way to go but if confirmed, this would be the second biggest crop on record, behind 2016/17 (4.31Mt). It is also some way above the initial forecast from the USDA last month of 3.5Mt.The next USDA forecasts are due on Thursday at 5pm.
If confirmed, a bigger Australian crop could boost global rapeseed supplies in 2021/22. The rapeseed market is very tight this season (2020/21) and expected to remain so into 2021/22. The market is reliant on a bigger Canadian crop to try and balance demand.
A bigger Australian crop could add a late season boost to supplies. This could potentially reduce the premium for rapeseed over other oilseeds. But, there’s still a long way to go before the crop is confirmed.
Highlights for other crops:
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Yields are expected to be above average after good rain in Western Australia, New South Wales and Queensland. Currently, these good conditions are expected to offset a drier period for crops in Victoria and South Australia. These two states are reliant on winter rainfall. But, the outlook is for above average rainfall in most growing areas over the next three months.
Above average yields would put production at 4.21Mt, 4% higher than 2020/21. There’s a long way to go but if confirmed, this would be the second biggest crop on record, behind 2016/17 (4.31Mt). It is also some way above the initial forecast from the USDA last month of 3.5Mt.The next USDA forecasts are due on Thursday at 5pm.
If confirmed, a bigger Australian crop could boost global rapeseed supplies in 2021/22. The rapeseed market is very tight this season (2020/21) and expected to remain so into 2021/22. The market is reliant on a bigger Canadian crop to try and balance demand.
A bigger Australian crop could add a late season boost to supplies. This could potentially reduce the premium for rapeseed over other oilseeds. But, there’s still a long way to go before the crop is confirmed.
Highlights for other crops:
- For 2021/22, the Australian government expects slightly more wheat (+0.6%), but less barley (-4.0%) and oats (-7.0%) to be planted than in 2020/21.
- Wheat, barley, and oat yields are expected to be lower than last year’s very high levels, but still above average.
- The 2021/22 wheat, barley, and oat crops are all forecast to be lower than this season’s high levels. But, the initial forecasts from the Australian government are above those from the USDA. If nothing else changes, this could boost global grain supplies slightly.
- Wheat production is forecast at 27.8Mt, barley at 10.4Mt, and oats at 1.62Mt. These are 0.8Mt, 366Kt, and 320Kt respectively above the initial USDA forecasts.
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