Beast from the East Mk.2. On the way?

MrNoo

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Cirencester
There was a SSW detected about 2 days ago.It displaces the very cold air over the Arctic about 2-4 weeks later,but they cant really forecast which unfortunate area will end up with the extreme cold.Sometimes the cold air mass splits in two.
Yes, SSW happened, downwelling normally takes a while but they seem to think that due to the lack of strength of the jetstream then downwelling will be quicker. Models are pretty much all over the place currently (due to this, they dont know how to deal with a SSW) but I suspect they will eventually sort themselves out, there is supposed to be another SSW in mid/late Jan too. A SSW can lead to a split in the polar vortex and wind reversal for us, so instead of a normal Westerly we get an Easterly but it isnt an exact science.
My take is that it'll warm up a tad next week 5-7C and the Easterly we're having will abate and I think it'll potentially come in cold again after the short "warm up" be it from a HP over us or way out West of us which would then drag colder air down. There were some very interesting charts this morning if you like snow but looking a long way off so not reliable also some long range charts showing potentially very cold conditions but as said a long way off and well into Fantasy Island as they say.
At least it's not raining!!

I will add that SSW is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming, ie warmer air pushed up into the stratosphere, this in turn leads to colder air being forced down (downwelling) the question is where the cold air comes down and then what impact it has on our everyday weather
 
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The Agrarian

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Northern Ireland
Have never had drifting snow here in my life. Not since '64, I think it was dad said. His aunt and uncle live in a lane hedged on both sides for about half a mile, full of snow. That was a long dig with nothing but shovels.

Mind you, I'm a lot less worried about snow than I am about cold. That week of -16 nights and -8 days we had in 2010 was a complete ballox when running a milking farm plus babies. All drinkers frozen for ages. One tap supplied 400 cattle with water that week via shifting it around in an Ibc on the forks. Insane the length of time it took for water lines frozen underground to start moving. Some of them were another week after the thaw began.
 

glasshouse

Member
Location
lothians
Have never had drifting snow here in my life. Not since '64, I think it was dad said. His aunt and uncle live in a lane hedged on both sides for about half a mile, full of snow. That was a long dig with nothing but shovels.

Mind you, I'm a lot less worried about snow than I am about cold. That week of -16 nights and -8 days we had in 2010 was a complete ballox when running a milking farm plus babies. All drinkers frozen for ages. One tap supplied 400 cattle with water that week via shifting it around in an Ibc on the forks. Insane the length of time it took for water lines frozen underground to start moving. Some of them were another week after the thaw began.
I thought northern ireland got drifting snow in 2013
 

Pilatus

Member
Location
cotswolds
Any update on the possibility of a ā€œcolder than average period towards the end of the monthā€.
I do realise that the UK does have winter and that it beggars belief how the media successfully hype society up in to an almost frenzy when temps below freezing are forecast and thatā€™s before mentioning the word snow!!! :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :rolleyes:
 

MrNoo

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Cirencester
Any update on the possibility of a ā€œcolder than average period towards the end of the monthā€.
I do realise that the UK does have winter and that it beggars belief how the media successfully hype society up in to an almost frenzy when temps below freezing are forecast and thatā€™s before mentioning the word snow!!! :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :rolleyes:

Well, the models seems in turmoil due to the SSW still, some showing stunning cold and snow at 10 days and some showing meh. They seem to think next week and we'll be wiser as to which direction we travel in. There is good cold to very cold air now in northern Europe, part of the polar vortex not far behind (brass monkey's stuff) and all models seem to want to point towards a Greenland High or Omega block. Certainly interesting model watching and if it's going to go cold it will be 18-20th Jan time. Talk of potentially some snow mid next week but guessing it'll be a Pennines north affair. But with FI (fantasy Island) being at only 3 days it's hard to predict
 

upnortheast

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Northumberland
Driving by watching out the side window at the edge of the road is quite entertaining!
Aye, during the beast from the east, son & I set off to get milk to some of our outlying shops.in the farm pickup.
Got hairy at times.Couple of occasions he had his head out of the window shouting left a bit , right a bit. Which silly twit abanded their car there. & other similar comments
 

Highland Mule

Member
Livestock Farmer
Driving by watching out the side window at the edge of the road is quite entertaining!

Crossed the Causewaymire (Caithness) one night with such thick fog that the only reference I had was the rhythmic thud of the cats eyes in the road centre. Was amazed how easy it was to keep between the fences, but with hindsight wast the most clever.
 

Yale

Member
Livestock Farmer
@MrNoo

Which are your favourite weather forecast resources?

I generally follow the BBC ā€˜weather for the weekā€™ videos daily and Weatheronline.co.uk which is part of Simon Keelings output.

Did subscribe to weatherweb which is Simons however found it went downhill when he left it to the rookie forecasters to do the videos so no longer there.

Any daily blogs or videos you can recommend?
 
Aye, during the beast from the east, son & I set off to get milk to some of our outlying shops.in the farm pickup.
Got hairy at times.Couple of occasions he had his head out of the window shouting left a bit , right a bit. Which silly twit abanded their car there. & other similar comments
Yeah... if you are able to put your head out of the window, it isnā€™t too bad.
My Subaru was blown across the road, the back end of the Nissan was blown around, I had to get out and open the passenger door for a fairly strong Czech girl as she couldnā€™t get out.
On a really bad day you donā€™t go to feed the sheep in the shed as you wouldnā€™t be able to find it!
Iā€™m off for a few days and Iā€™m down south, which is a shame as yesterday was -13 snowing and 40mph winds back at the farm.
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

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Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: ā€œRed Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in Aprilā€œ

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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