Beef / Lamb & Pig Price Tracker

Location
Devon
Tin hat on....

The auctioneer is being economical with the facts. Abattoirs are multi million pound set ups, if a deal is not done by Febuary, they will start cutting staff and emptying chillers. They are not going to be caught out with chillers full of lamb, worth hundreds of thousands of pounds on 29/3/2019 knowing tariffs could be imposed.

A drop in price will start to be seen from mid January onwards. Please bear in mind there are no ethnic festivals until after Brexit, so there is nothing else to prop the trade.

This is just my view so please don't shoot me down. I know of a few French customers sourcing lamb from Spain already, so the backup plans are well underway.

Well quite clearly you are going to be talking the price of lamb down as its in your intrest's to do so..

Back along you were bleating that we farmers should feel sorry for the killing plants as the lamb price was so high yet now the lamb price is very low I don't hear you say that killing plants should feel sorry for farmers..................................................

Sadly for you lamb prices wont be that bad come next April regardless of a brexit deal or no deal because lamb prices are at a worldwide high and numbers are getting very tight in places like OZ and NZ, both are losing massive numbers of sheep due to the weather, OZ due to the winter drought, the worst in living memory and NZ because of severe cold weather at lambing recently where the North island has had hellish snow storms and most farms are losing upwards of 1000+ lambs each that they wouldn't do so in a normal year and its so bad suckler farmers are even losing calves.

If there is no brexit deal then there will be few exports for the first few weeks/ months but of course there will be no imports either in this time so the net result is prices will be okay in the short term at least if there is no deal ( which is very unlikely to happen anyway )

And of course vast amounts of chicken/ pork are imported into the UK from other EU country's so if there was no deal then this meat would not be coming into the UK either so supermarkets/ butchers etc will turn to lamb to fill the gap in the short term as people will still have to eat at the end of the day.
 
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Location
Devon
note on this weeks report from Robert Venner auctioneer for sedgemoor , i recon he pretty close to the truth ,

"There is currently a lot of talk about a “no deal” or a “disorderly hard Brexit”. I have been told by a very experienced EU agricultural negotiator that there will be a deal. However due to the way the EU operate it will probably be struck on 30th March, when Brexit day is the 29th . Furthermore, if we “crash” out onto WTO trading arrangements, the tariffs the EU can impose on sheep meat are maximums. They do not have to impose any tariffs at all. Both sides have said they would like to achieve a tariff free trading arrangement! Do not give up on sheep production for fear of tariffs, which might not ever be imposed! "Robert Venner Managing Partner of Sedgemoor mkt

That message has been in the newsletter for several weeks now.
 

Smith31

Member
[="gone up the hill, post: 5505020, member: 1048"]Well quite clearly you are going to be talking the price of lamb down as its in your intrest's to do so..

Back along you were bleating that we farmers should feel sorry for the killing plants as the lamb price was so high yet now the lamb price is very low I don't hear you say that killing plants should feel sorry for farmers..................................................

Sadly for you lamb prices wont be that bad come next April regardless of a brexit deal or no deal because lamb prices are at a worldwide high and numbers are getting very tight in places like OZ and NZ, both are losing massive numbers of sheep due to the weather, OZ due to the winter drought, the worst in living memory and NZ because of severe cold weather at lambing recently where the North island has had hellish snow storms and most farms are losing upwards of 1000+ lambs each that they wouldn't do so in a normal year and its so bad suckler farmers are even losing calves.

If there is no brexit deal then there will be few exports for the first few weeks/ months but of course there will be no imports either in this time so the net result is prices will be okay in the short term at least if there is no deal ( which is very unlikely to happen anyway )[/QUOTE]

As a sheep farmer myself, I hope 2019 lamb prices are higher then this year. I would be more than happy if your predictions are correct and I am proved wrong.
 

Smith31

Member
Northeastfarmers post: 5505084 said:
If hoggs aren’t over £100 next April then I’ll eat my hat...and anyone else’s

Im not betting against you lol, in late April lambs will take a lift, a festival starts in early May. Im mostly concerned about the period between Febuary and March (Brexit)
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

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Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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