Beef / Lamb & Pig Price Tracker

FordFarmer

Member
Location
Devon
Hopefully numbers will be down in Exeter on Monday , I buggered if i'am taking good hogs in for£80 I think I will miss a week or two.

That’s why I like Honiton, I know what I’m getting before I set off with only a few I can just wait until I like what I see on the text and then take them. Sometimes this seems like an age though!
 
Thanks for explaining that @PercyBlakeney but for simple minds like myself what would the actual tariff amount be on a 20 kilo deadweight lamb?

I assume we would be talking about UK lambs being exported to EU in no deal? As imports are pretty much the status quo in a no deal.

Without wanting to over generalise trade/tariffs too much as different products are subject to different tariffs.. but for instance say a 20kg lamb carcase going into France, based on a 2017 export price (2018 is a tad distorted due to the high price at the start of the year) it would look something like this:

Currently:
20kg lamb x €4.92/kg export price = €98.40 cost to importer.

In no deal:
20kg x volume tariff of €171.3/100kg = €34.30
€98.40 x ad valorem tariff of 12.8% = €12.60
New cost of lamb to importer = €145.30 (98.4 + 34.3 + 12.6)

So for the lamb to cost the same as it currently does, the export price would have to decrease by just over €2/kg... which would most likely go directly back to the farmgate price.

That is a rough calculation so wouldn't take it for gospel but should spell out the methodology of how a tariff is worked out! Hope that's clear enough but the top and bottom of it is that it just isn't straight forward at all. Before I came interested in it it took a while to get my head around it all to be honest.... I think I have, I'm happy for someone to tell me i'm wrong based on the above calculations though...
 
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You mean 42 or 44 kilos??

You had a good trade looking at the figures on the AHDB site, SQQ was 1.87 ( down 5.9pk on the week ) for Hallworthy

South Molten SQQ was 190.4pk up 3.9pk on the week.

Cull ewes were the trade of the day at South Molten averaging nearly £74 head up £8.50 on the week.

I would think so. They are sold as 21 or 22s anyway.

That’s some price per kg on them hoggs

Not complaining! Top we think was over £90.
 

sheepwise

Member
Location
SW Scotland
I assume we would be talking about UK lambs being exported to EU in no deal? As imports are pretty much the status quo in a no deal.

Without wanting to over generalise trade/tariffs too much as different products are subject to different tariffs.. but for instance say a 20kg lamb carcase going into France, based on a 2017 export price (2018 is a tad distorted due to the high price at the start of the year) it would look something like this:

Currently:
20kg lamb x €4.92/kg export price = €98.40 cost to importer.

In no deal:
20kg x volume tariff of €171.3/100kg = €34.30
€98.40 x ad valorem tariff of 12.8% = €12.60
New cost of lamb to importer = €145.30 (98.4 + 34.3 + 12.6)

So for the lamb to cost the same as it currently does, the export price would have to decrease by just over €2/kg... which would most likely go directly back to the farmgate price.

That is a rough calculation so wouldn't take it for gospel but should spell out the methodology of how a tariff is worked out! Hope that's clear enough but the top and bottom of it is that it just isn't straight forward at all. Before I came interested in it it took a while to get my head around it all to be honest.... I think I have, I'm happy for someone to tell me i'm wrong based on the above calculations though...
Sounds about right as NFUS quoted a lamb currently selling for £80 would fall to £50 to be same price once exported to EU.
 

Frank-the-Wool

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
East Sussex
I assume we would be talking about UK lambs being exported to EU in no deal? As imports are pretty much the status quo in a no deal.

Without wanting to over generalise trade/tariffs too much as different products are subject to different tariffs.. but for instance say a 20kg lamb carcase going into France, based on a 2017 export price (2018 is a tad distorted due to the high price at the start of the year) it would look something like this:

Currently:
20kg lamb x €4.92/kg export price = €98.40 cost to importer.

In no deal:
20kg x volume tariff of €171.3/100kg = €34.30
€98.40 x ad valorem tariff of 12.8% = €12.60
New cost of lamb to importer = €145.30 (98.4 + 34.3 + 12.6)

So for the lamb to cost the same as it currently does, the export price would have to decrease by just over €2/kg... which would most likely go directly back to the farmgate price.

That is a rough calculation so wouldn't take it for gospel but should spell out the methodology of how a tariff is worked out! Hope that's clear enough but the top and bottom of it is that it just isn't straight forward at all. Before I came interested in it it took a while to get my head around it all to be honest.... I think I have, I'm happy for someone to tell me i'm wrong based on the above calculations though...

I am not sure you are correct in this calculation for lamb.

On the presumption that the government have said (admittedly on a no deal basis) there will be no tariffs on imported lamb (NZ has a quota anyway that is tariff free) then under WTO rules then there can be no tariff into the EU as a Third Country. Your calculation is I believe correct on beef though but only on the amount above the quota.
 
I am not sure you are correct in this calculation for lamb.

On the presumption that the government have said (admittedly on a no deal basis) there will be no tariffs on imported lamb (NZ has a quota anyway that is tariff free) then under WTO rules then there can be no tariff into the EU as a Third Country. Your calculation is I believe correct on beef though but only on the amount above the quota.

As far as I am aware, there will only be no tariffs on NZ + Aus lamb in a no deal. This is because it has already been agreed that the tariff free quotas those two countries have access to will be proportionately split between the UK and the EU based on historic volumes. (I think around 50% of the quota to UK and 50% to rest of EU for NZ lamb).

Any other lamb imported to the UK in a no deal will be subject to tariffs, which the government have published as being the same as the EU third country tariff rates (so for carcasses the same as I posted above). In 2018 the UK imported was just over 20,000 tonnes of lamb from the EU, which in the event of a no deal would be subject to tariffs.

As we won't have any trading agreement, and thus preferential access with the EU in a no deal scenario, any lamb we export to the EU will be subject to the EU third country tariffs.

In a no deal we are acting as our own trading bloc so what tariffs we implement doesn't have to be reciprocated by the EU. It's more that all countries exporting to the UK have to be on a level playing field. Similarly all countries exporting to the EU that don't have a trade agreement also have to be on a level playing field. But those two playing fields aren't the same.

That's how I've understood it all from what the government has published this week, although I'm guessing you've interpreted it differently. I think what has been the reported line is that 'there has been no change to the tariff rates for lamb compared to the EU MFN tariff.' But that in itself is an implementation of a tariff as currently we don't have any, a bit like beef. To be honest, the BBC and to an extent some of the farming press have been slightly mis-reporting the consequences of the introduction of tariffs in my opinion. To be honest it's more of a face to face/over the phone discussion in my opinion as hard to get it across in words.. or maybe that's just my bad prose..
 
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As far as I am aware, there will only be no tariffs on NZ + Aus lamb in a no deal. This is because it has already been agreed that the tariff free quotas those two countries have access to will be proportionately split between the UK and the EU based on historic volumes. (I think around 50% of the quota to UK and 50% to rest of EU for NZ lamb).

Any other lamb imported to the UK in a no deal will be subject to tariffs, which the government have published as being the same as the EU third country tariff rates (so for carcasses the same as I posted above). In 2018 the UK imported was just over 20,000 tonnes of lamb from the EU, which in the event of a no deal would be subject to tariffs.

As we won't have any trading agreement, and thus preferential access with the EU in a no deal scenario, any lamb we export to the EU will be subject to the EU third country tariffs.

In a no deal we are acting as our own trading bloc so what tariffs we implement doesn't have to be reciprocated by the EU. It's more that all countries exporting to the UK have to be on a level playing field. Similarly all countries exporting to the EU that don't have a trade agreement also have to be on a level playing field. But those two playing fields aren't the same.

That's how I've understood it all from what the government has published this week, although I'm guessing you've interpreted it differently. I think what has been the reported line is that 'there has been no change to the tariff rates for lamb compared to the EU MFN tariff.' But that in itself is an implementation of a tariff as currently we don't have any, a bit like beef. To be honest, the BBC and to an extent some of the farming press have been slightly mis-reporting the consequences of the introduction of tariffs in my opinion. To be honest it's more of a face to face/over the phone discussion in my opinion as hard to get it across in words.. or maybe that's just my bad prose..
In essence I think you are correct, in simple terms lambs exported to the EU under a No Deal scenario after March 29 will be hit with a tariff of around €48/lamb on average export weights. Rest assured the EU will still buy the lamb, but it won’t be them who “pay” the tariff.
 

Frank-the-Wool

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
East Sussex
As far as I am aware, there will only be no tariffs on NZ + Aus lamb in a no deal. This is because it has already been agreed that the tariff free quotas those two countries have access to will be proportionately split between the UK and the EU based on historic volumes. (I think around 50% of the quota to UK and 50% to rest of EU for NZ lamb).

Any other lamb imported to the UK in a no deal will be subject to tariffs, which the government have published as being the same as the EU third country tariff rates (so for carcasses the same as I posted above). In 2018 the UK imported was just over 20,000 tonnes of lamb from the EU, which in the event of a no deal would be subject to tariffs.

As we won't have any trading agreement, and thus preferential access with the EU in a no deal scenario, any lamb we export to the EU will be subject to the EU third country tariffs.

In a no deal we are acting as our own trading bloc so what tariffs we implement doesn't have to be reciprocated by the EU. It's more that all countries exporting to the UK have to be on a level playing field. Similarly all countries exporting to the EU that don't have a trade agreement also have to be on a level playing field. But those two playing fields aren't the same.

That's how I've understood it all from what the government has published this week, although I'm guessing you've interpreted it differently. I think what has been the reported line is that 'there has been no change to the tariff rates for lamb compared to the EU MFN tariff.' But that in itself is an implementation of a tariff as currently we don't have any, a bit like beef. To be honest, the BBC and to an extent some of the farming press have been slightly mis-reporting the consequences of the introduction of tariffs in my opinion. To be honest it's more of a face to face/over the phone discussion in my opinion as hard to get it across in words.. or maybe that's just my bad prose..

Yes it is very confusing and I was presuming that if we become a Third country but are opting not to apply any Tariff on sheep meat then there will be none either way. However you are correct in your calculation as the notes from the NFU show below. This does show how important it is do have a bespoke deal or not leave the EU!
The statement about full tariff protection is rather irrelevant as we only import sheep meat from NZ and Australia. NZ presumably will continue tariff free under existing quota, Australia will be subject to tariff.

" Sheep meat: There will be full tariff protection for sheep meat sector. This means no additional market access and no reduction in the full external tariff of 12.8% + €171.3/100kg). To be clear existing market access concessions for countries such as New Zealand lamb will continue (the existing NZ quote equates to 114,000t)."

I copy below the information on Beef which would be of far greater concern. You will note that even the "experts" have included a warning about the accuracy of the information.

"Beef meat: The government has announced the creation of new autonomous Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs) to manage import volumes of beef. A TRQ comprises two parts 1) a Tariff Rate and 2) a Quota (volume). The “in quota” Tariff Rate for beef will be zero and the volumes granted access (quota) to this zero duty rate is slightly lower than that which we currently see coming in duty free from the EU. The quota for “Fresh/ Chilled Beef” (0201 codes) will be 124,401t. The quota for “Frozen beef” (0202 codes) will be 56,217t and for processed beef (0210 + 1602 codes) the quota will be 50,042t. All together this would see duty free market access for around 230,000t, which leaves approximately NFU Briefing Although every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, neither the NFU nor the author can accept liability for errors and or omissions. © NFU The voice of British farming Page 2 95,000 tonnes of beef imports currently entering the UK market duty free from the EU, potentially subject to the new UK tariffs (depending on whether the trade is direct from ROI to NI). The quotas will be managed quarterly and on a first come first served basis. Further details of how importers will be able to access the quotas will be published shortly. Unfortunately, the quotas will be managed at the 4 digit code level. This means that fresh/ chilled carcase will be treated the same as fresh/chilled boneless cuts, potentially skewing the market resulting in a surge in boneless cuts entering our market. The out of quota duty for beef is significantly lower than that which the EU currently applies to 3rd county imports. For example the UK tariff for out of quota imports of fresh beef would be 6.8% +€93.3/100kg. This is compared to 12.8% + €176.8/100kg currently applied by virtue of EU membership."

On beef in simple terms having a lower tariff for out of quota beef imports means that this will come in at a lower price than at present into the EU.

While all this complication at present is irrelevant as we are not leaving yet, my concern would be that if we eventually do then these will be the starting points for any tariffs which will not be very pleasant for the livestock sector.
 

jendan

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Northumberland
Yes it is very confusing and I was presuming that if we become a Third country but are opting not to apply any Tariff on sheep meat then there will be none either way. However you are correct in your calculation as the notes from the NFU show below. This does show how important it is do have a bespoke deal or not leave the EU!
The statement about full tariff protection is rather irrelevant as we only import sheep meat from NZ and Australia. NZ presumably will continue tariff free under existing quota, Australia will be subject to tariff.

" Sheep meat: There will be full tariff protection for sheep meat sector. This means no additional market access and no reduction in the full external tariff of 12.8% + €171.3/100kg). To be clear existing market access concessions for countries such as New Zealand lamb will continue (the existing NZ quote equates to 114,000t)."

I copy below the information on Beef which would be of far greater concern. You will note that even the "experts" have included a warning about the accuracy of the information.

"Beef meat: The government has announced the creation of new autonomous Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs) to manage import volumes of beef. A TRQ comprises two parts 1) a Tariff Rate and 2) a Quota (volume). The “in quota” Tariff Rate for beef will be zero and the volumes granted access (quota) to this zero duty rate is slightly lower than that which we currently see coming in duty free from the EU. The quota for “Fresh/ Chilled Beef” (0201 codes) will be 124,401t. The quota for “Frozen beef” (0202 codes) will be 56,217t and for processed beef (0210 + 1602 codes) the quota will be 50,042t. All together this would see duty free market access for around 230,000t, which leaves approximately NFU Briefing Although every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, neither the NFU nor the author can accept liability for errors and or omissions. © NFU The voice of British farming Page 2 95,000 tonnes of beef imports currently entering the UK market duty free from the EU, potentially subject to the new UK tariffs (depending on whether the trade is direct from ROI to NI). The quotas will be managed quarterly and on a first come first served basis. Further details of how importers will be able to access the quotas will be published shortly. Unfortunately, the quotas will be managed at the 4 digit code level. This means that fresh/ chilled carcase will be treated the same as fresh/chilled boneless cuts, potentially skewing the market resulting in a surge in boneless cuts entering our market. The out of quota duty for beef is significantly lower than that which the EU currently applies to 3rd county imports. For example the UK tariff for out of quota imports of fresh beef would be 6.8% +€93.3/100kg. This is compared to 12.8% + €176.8/100kg currently applied by virtue of EU membership."

On beef in simple terms having a lower tariff for out of quota beef imports means that this will come in at a lower price than at present into the EU.

While all this complication at present is irrelevant as we are not leaving yet, my concern would be that if we eventually do then these will be the starting points for any tariffs which will not be very pleasant for the livestock sector.
Just to recap simply,will we pay tariff on lamb going into the EU after Mar29? either with no deal,any deal,or an extension to Art 50?
 
" Sheep meat: There will be full tariff protection for sheep meat sector. This means no additional market access and no reduction in the full external tariff of 12.8% + €171.3/100kg). To be clear existing market access concessions for countries such as New Zealand lamb will continue (the existing NZ quote equates to 114,000t)."
.

Yeah, I think the reason they put full tariff protection in place is so that other countries that may be inclined to export sheep meat to us, that don’t currently, are priced out? I also think that Australia kicked up a fuss and were also given there split of tariff free quota into the UK. (However overall volumes are much lower than NZ as you said).

But yeah all a bit complicated, and especially as it’s unlikely to happen on March 29 now.
 

Old Tip

Member
Location
Cumbria
I don’t understand what your saying you first quote was for live weight then you seem to be estimating a dead weight???
They will be sold on half weights like they used to in the days of sub. So if the lambs were 22 at half weights they would have been 44 or 46 live weights depending on how they work it out. In the days of the grader they used to knock 1 or 2 kilos off depending on how they thought they would kill out
 
They will be sold on half weights like they used to in the days of sub. So if the lambs were 22 at half weights they would have been 44 or 46 live weights depending on how they work it out. In the days of the grader they used to knock 1 or 2 kilos off depending on how they thought they would kill out
Thanks for that never heard of it
Why do it like this ??
 

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