Beef trends

[Walterp]

As an industry we may not be taking enough notice of the annual stats that BCMS churn out.

What do you make of this:

1. In 2002 beef-sired calves were at 1,874,000, and they have declined steadily since then; in 2012 there were only 1,420,000 such registrations - a decline in a decade of 454,000 calves.

Or does a 25% drop sound more dramatic?

2. But Limousin-sired calves have increased in that time, from 340,000 to 536,000.

And, yes, a nearly 60% increase definitely DOES sound more dramatic.

Some may say that the Limousin is now beginning to lose out in popularity to native breeds like the Angus, but it ain't true - truth is, the beef herd is still shrinking and it's the Continental breeders (Charolais and Simmental sires also reducing) that are getting out first.

So, any estimates of when this trend of decline is going to be halted?

 

[JP1]

A clever new thread WalterP

The trend won't be halted as beef farming and particularly suckler cows are not as profitable as other enterprises where the land supports an alternative

As stated on an earlier thread, the trend (although numbers are still massive for Limousin) does show that Angus and Shorthorn registrations are up in % terms and all continental breeds down

 

[DrDunc]

The only way to halt the decline is to increase the price on the hoof.

By rights the horse meat saga should generate more demand for fore quarter beef. This should increase price, and certainly store cattle prices here do seam to be reflecting an increased sense of confidence by the finishers.

However it has a long way to go before cost of production without subsidy is met going by the figures on qms.

In the early eighties my father was selling 7cwt Hereford bullocks for £450 to £500. This price for heavily fed continental sired bullocks only improved on this about 5 years ago.

Can someone remind us what fertiliser, diesel and feed barley cost in the early eighties?

I estimate the decline halts when the supermarkets stop screwing everyone from the producer to the retailer. Sorry to be negative, and it won't stop me keeping sucklers.

 

[jade35]

Did you see the piece in the Sunday Telegraph yesterday about the price of horses sold for slaughter in Poland. I thought they had made an error in converting the zloty to £'s but the conversion rate was about right. Makes my finished beef animals very cheap. Think there must still be errors in the report as not known any dealers in the UK pay more than they have to but perhaps they are different in Europe My apologies, computer skills are not up to putting up the link.

 

[Henery]

The suckler job has been stuffed for a long time, the financial realities are perhaps coming home , throw in a TB breakdown and the job looks even more desperate.
The fundamentals of the beef market look promising to me though. Demand remains pretty strong and supply is declining. Unlike the sheep industry , beef is not underpinned by exports, so that plug can't be pulled.
In the short term the horse meat shambles may dent confidence, although Dovecote Park raised the price another 10 p as of today (sent 33 in today ) in the medium to longer term the beef industry looks reasonably safe.
Now if I could just feed them on grass and little else........

 

[johnspeehs]

As an industry we may not be taking enough notice of the annual stats that BCMS churn out.

What do you make of this:

1. In 2002 beef-sired calves were at 1,874,000, and they have declined steadily since then; in 2012 there were only 1,420,000 such registrations - a decline in a decade of 454,000 calves.

Or does a 25% drop sound more dramatic?

2. But Limousin-sired calves have increased in that time, from 340,000 to 536,000.

And, yes, a nearly 60% increase definitely DOES sound more dramatic.

Some may say that the Limousin is now beginning to lose out in popularity to native breeds like the Angus, but it ain't true - truth is, the beef herd is still shrinking and it's the Continental breeders (Charolais and Simmental sires also reducing) that are getting out first.

So, any estimates of when this trend of decline is going to be halted?

It's not going to halt while beef prices remain below the cost of production and Sfp continues to decrease as this is obviously what people must be using to prop up a suckler herd. Unless you have plenty of acres of land you don't need, no overdraft, cheap labour, the ability to winter outside then there has to be very limited profit in keeping a cow 365 days a year to rear 1 calf,, I know, Im trying to do just that and find it hard to make it all add up.

 

[bobk]

It's not going to halt while beef prices remain below the cost of production and Sfp continues to decrease as this is obviously what people must be using to prop up a suckler herd. Unless you have plenty of acres of land you don't need, no overdraft, cheap labour, the ability to winter outside then there has to be very limited profit in keeping a cow 365 days a year to rear 1 calf,, I know, Im trying to do just that and find it hard to make it all add up.

Spot on John , 1 cow 1 calf 1 year kin madness

 

[RJ1]

So what's the answer then? It can't be all over for suckler herds. How would you run them to make a profit?

Prices are obviously still too low, given the lack of increase in price over decades, but what within your power would you do?

 

[Thick Farmer]

So what's the answer then? It can't be all over for suckler herds. How would you run them to make a profit?

Prices are obviously still too low, given the lack of increase in price over decades, but what within your power would you do?

I reckon it costs me £500-600 a year to keep a suckler cow and calf. That's about the same as the calf is worth at 12 months, so might be better to just buy them in!

 

[Poorbuthappy]

Don't think you'll find much suckler bred stuff for £5-600 at 12 months down here, not unless its pretty rough.