Better polish up on your Japanese..........

[roscoe erf]

As I understand it, the Japanese government has just revoked the ban on UK meat that they put in place because of BSE, back in 1996. No new EU deal, just allowing UK meat back in, and probably one of the last countries to do so.

It's another Barrier to exports removed, which is always good, but hardly a significant one in the grand scheme of things. What quantity of beef & lamb was being exported to Japan prior to 1996? I suspect not a lot. But hey, every little helps.

is that right I seem to remember that Hybu Cig Cymru were doing something with Japan and lamb some time back to do with llanybydder can't recall the details

 

[M-J-G]

The Eu could have made these new deals at any stage but their timing is suspicious as we are approaching a time where they are necessary for us

They need to send the surplus Irish beef else where now, so they have looked for a market.
If your old buyer turns their back on you as a supplier, isn't it normal to look for another another?

 

[Hilly]

It needs taking for what it is a little bit of good news , end of story , haters are an embarrassment.

 

[livestock 1]

They need to send the surplus Irish beef else where now, so they have looked for a market.
If your old buyer turns their back on you as a supplier, isn't it normal to look for another another?

I wasn’t thinking just about beef or lamb I was thinking about the new trade deal the Eu made with Japan in October. Why wait until now? Great news for the beef and lamb. I am suspicious of their timing

 

[Still Farming]

EU be hopping mad ???

 

[M-J-G]

It needs taking for what it is a little bit of good news , end of story , haters are an embarrassment.

There is no hate in business, just winners and losers.

This needs to be taken at face value, approx 6000 cattle (maybe more if it's a low price) out of close to 2 million slaughtered here annually, which equates to maybe a couple of thousand tonnes of beef. If that excites you I'm happy for you!

But considering that they import over 100 times thatamount from Australia where dw beef price is around 3 of our weak pounds per kg, and large amounts from the US where beef is I'm guessing well below what we are used to.

I will save my excitement for something worthy, but I will acknowledge it if it turns out to be a premium market.

 

[Hilly]

There is no hate in business, just winners and losers.

This needs to be taken at face value, approx 6000 cattle (maybe more if it's a low price) out of close to 2 million slaughtered here annually, which equates to maybe a couple of thousand tonnes of beef. If that excites you I'm happy for you!

But considering that they import over 100 times thatamount from Australia where dw beef price is around 3 of our weak pounds per kg, and large amounts from the US where beef is I'm guessing well below what we are used to.

I will save my excitement for something worthy, but I will acknowledge it if it turns out to be a premium market.

It needs taking for what it is, a little bit of good news.

 

[ollie989898]

Pah
Suspended building Wylfa Newydd on the sainted Isle.
Not enough government sub

Their design did not meet GDA unfortunately so was not a goer as I understood it.

 

[ollie989898]

It is a new avenue for trade, there is no winners or losers in trade, either it is mutually beneficial for both parties or it doesn't work.

Why the negativity? Have we not established that the US apparently is full of growth hormones, and you can't market your own beef that does not involve the use of that stuff? Well them. Stop moaning for godsake.

 

[M-J-G]

It needs taking for what it is, a little bit of good news.

I just see it as news, I do agree it is little, but I'll reserve judgement on the "good" part.

 

[Hilly]

I just see it as news, I do agree it is little, but I'll reserve judgement on the "good" part.

Doom monger you though.

 

[Hilly]

It is a new avenue for trade, there is no winners or losers in trade, either it is mutually beneficial for both parties or it doesn't work.

Why the negativity? Have we not established that the US apparently is full of growth hormones, and you can't market your own beef that does not involve the use of that stuff? Well them. Stop moaning for godsake.

Born to moan some people, half glass n all that, its a little bit of good news im pleased.

 

[M-J-G]

Doom monger you though.

I'm accepting it for what it appears to be for now, if reserving judgement until more details are revealed is doom mongering then fair enough, I'd rather ask a few questions and get a few firm facts on details that than live in a fairytale of ideology and potentially ending up disappointed because a dream didn't come true.

Weren't you speaking against the moving goods all round the world for no good reason a week or two back?

 

[Farmer Roy]

some may find this of interest

Beef exports up 11pc in 2018 8 Jan 2019, 1 p.m.
Markets

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2018 was the biggest year for beef exports since the drought-liquidation years of 2014-15.

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Department of Agriculture and Water Resources figures for 2018 are now in and confirm the year by far as the biggest for beef exports since the drought-liquidation years of 2014-15.

1.124 million tonnes were shipped, an increase of 109,000t or 10.8pc on 2017.

Growth in chilled beef product accounted for 22,000t leaving frozen as the biggest part of the increased tonnage at 87,000t.

From the supply side, continuation of very high feedlot inventories has played its part in the availability of high-quality product for the chilled segment but the huge spike in frozen is undoubtedly due to a relapse back into fully-blown liquidation of female cattle.

Unfortunately there is a two-month lag in Australian Bureau of Statistics slaughter data and at time of writing, October is the latest to hand which brings the 2018 year-to-date proportion of females to 50.9pc.

That compares with 50.6pc for 2014.

November figures are due any time now but are expected to show only a modest tapering of female slaughter numbers.

The figures are also expected to confirm an overall reduction in the number of male cattle in 2018 compared to the year before.

Processors have been anticipating supply issues with male cattle for some time and it looks as though the diminished state of the herd and accelerated push through of steers by lot feeding may finally be starting to bite.

Unfortunately agricultural census occurs only every five years and the last was in 2016 which put the herd at 26.8 million head.

Perhaps conveniently for analysts, that mid-year census figure corresponds fairly neatly with the end of a prolonged liquidation phase and thus should represent a reliable low-point statistic on which to base forward herd projections.

That phase began in 2013 with the failure of the summer wet and ended (but not for everyone) with the wet winter of 2016.

It was the latter part of 2016 that pulled the percentage of females in the kill for that year down to 47 from 49.4 in 2015.

In 2017 rain came by way of storms and cyclonic influence.

On balance the benefit was widespread enough to cause the female percentage to fall to 45.5 reflecting some tentative signs of a start toward rebuilding.

MLA in their estimate thought the impetus sufficient to boost herd numbers back up to almost 28m by mid-2017, a 4.2pc jump in just 12 months.

To some however that seems something of a stretch considering peak herd was estimated at 29.3m head after three years of intensive rebuilding where female percentage was down in the 43 range for two of those years in succession.

MLA’s current mid-year estimate of herd size for 2018 is 27.4m head but there is an alternate view that the herd was unlikely to have reached the 2017 projection and on the strength of the liquidation seen throughout most of 2018 has now descended below the 2016 census figure.

If that is the case it will add to processor concern about the supply situation in the years ahead.

Asian markets dominant
AUSTRALIA’S three vitally important Asian beef markets dominated the 2018 trading year with Japan returning to a volume not seen since 2011, Korea continuing to bump up against the trade volume barrier (safeguard) inadvertently set in KAFTA (Korea Australia Free Trade Agreement) and China establishing a new record for imported Australian beef.

For Japan, the 315,780t shipped in 2018 takes us back to the sort of volumes the market had developed to in more ‘normal’ times post the 1970s crash and before the impact of BSE (Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy).

Under that scenario volume in 2001 was 319,000t.

A year later imports from Australia had plummeted to 236,000t as a consequence of plunging Japanese consumer confidence following the BSE outbreak there.

Another year later as confidence was returning, BSE hit the US and the ban imposed by Japan on US beef resulted in a ‘golden era’ for Australia of some eight years when export volume was consistently in the high 300’s and reached a top of 405,000t.

The market conditionally reopened to the US in 2006 but it wasn’t until cattle age barriers were relaxed in 2012 that the US was effectively able to get quantity back into Japan.

In 2011 Australia sent 342,000t to Japan and by 2013 that had dropped to 288,000t.

It remained under 300,000t until last year but could have dropped further if not for the tariff advantage bestowed on Australia by its FTA with Japan.

Hopefully Australia’s new-found success will continue despite the impending likelihood of a US/Japan trade agreement of equivalence to Australia’s for beef.

No immediate fix for Korean safeguard
AS commented upon variously in this column and elsewhere, the beef safeguard established as part of KAFTA has been triggered each year since the agreement came into effect with trade-limiting consequence of snapback increase in tariff.

In 2018, 170,273t was shipped to Korea from Australia.

Safeguard in 2018 was 167,327t and was triggered on October 11.

Prior to Christmas I contacted DAWR and received advice that the Australian Government is in continuous contact with the Korean Government over the issue of the beef safeguard.

In August the matter was raised at the KAFTA Committee on Trade Goods and in December the Australian Ambassador James Choi met with the Korean Minister for Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs Gae-ho Lee for further discussion.

The problem however is that there is no formal mechanism within KAFTA to review the agreement.

That means Australia has to accept that Korea is entitled to apply the safeguard as negotiated in KAFTA however Korea is being actively encouraged to apply the safeguard only when Australian exports are likely to cause serious harm to their local industry rather than automatically applying the safeguard when threshold is met.

There are nine years to run under KAFTA before tariff and safeguard reduce to zero.

 

[Longlowdog]

The Japanese have a tendency to like fine products, Kobe/Wagyu beef, high priced tuna etc, it's looking good as an outlet for my Beltex. I'll accept it as a wee bit of good news.

 

[JD-Kid]

The Japanese have a tendency to like fine products, Kobe/Wagyu beef, high priced tuna etc, it's looking good as an outlet for my Beltex. I'll accept it as a wee bit of good news.

they do tend to aim for top end cuts and breeds alot of intermusclur fat etc.
but if it's a eu deal what happens. once. out

 

[neilo]

The Japanese have a tendency to like fine products, Kobe/Wagyu beef, high priced tuna etc, it's looking good as an outlet for my Beltex. I'll accept it as a wee bit of good news.

Are you really trying to equate Beltex meat with that of Kobe beef? Polar opposite ends of the spectrum surely?

 

[Bury the Trash]

they do tend to aim for top end cuts and breeds alot of intermusclur fat etc.
but if it's a eu deal what happens. once. out

Beltex are no doubt bang on for the eu market but there ain't much fat in their muscle

 

[Kiwi Pete]

Good news, next step will be to either join the CPTPP or negotiate a free trade deal with Japan, would possibly mean a quota to get around the tariffs.

Any market diversification has to be a good thing, India and Japan will be great markets to persue.