Brexit future is bright

[reverand]

I like that post but don't be bitter about things you can't influence the job has always evolved it's the pace of change that's the problem

Its more frustration than bitterness. If people have never had something you can't miss it.

 

[opininionated]

I am not ashamed to say that I voted Remain, and I understand that I was in the minority of UK farmers (70% voting Brexit). So far I am not seeing any benefits just increased input costs (fuel, machinery and chemicals) and as we are still in the EU even if /when the pound rebalances against the Euro I am not going see any improvements in commodity prices.
Now that the dust has settled it appears that our single farm payment will be history by 2019 to be replaced by community environmental payments. So instead of having 2 million farmers on our side we will be just be a very small voice against a massive urban population that really couldn't care less about where it's food comes from and will care even less if it comes under more financial pressure, added to which would like to see money spent on the NHS rather than it being given to individual farmers.
I need to produce a five year plan for our business. Would some of the Brexiters be able to put some figures to how the future for a 750 acre arable farm is going to shape up. . .? Am I going to see fewer rules when it comes to all the pieces of regulation that come with farm assurance and any future environmental payments..
A columnist in this weeks FW is suggesting that 'Brexit future is bright if we all work together ' . I am all in favour of working together, but history suggests that it just doesn't work in the UK and most farmers compete with their neighbours and never work with them.
I admit that I really didn't believe that the UK would vote to come out of the EU and cannot believe that so many UK farmers voted to come out.
So now ....all you Brexiters .....please enlighten my how my future is going to be better outside the EU.. I need facts and figures not personal attacks which have occurred in other threads.

As you prepare your 5 year plan, start from scratch and forget all past costings that you have done. The first number on the page needs to be a realistic price that you expect to get for your product.
Then, using the knowledge you've gained over the years decide which tillage, chemical regime, fertiliser input, staffing level, rent rate will produce the best return, bearing in mind that maximum yield will almost certainly not produce maximum return.
Who knows, it might be that broadcasting seed with a 90hp tractor ( it always seems to germinate alright when it comes out of the back of the combine), use the same broadcaster to throw a few units of fertiliser at it, spray it off with roundup pre harvest, and use an old combine to fly round the 1 1/2 tonne crop.
Imagine the commodity prices if national yields dropped to 1 1/2 t / acre, for once, your budget would benefit from a higher than forecast sales figure.
Farmers might be worried about the demise of farm subs, but agricultural suppliers are petrified, and the general public will get to realise that, because of subs, they have never had it so good.

 

[renewablejohn]

Personally if I was in your position my starting point would be this document which I posted on another thread in particular Chapters 13 14 and 15.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...achment_data/file/535996/AUK-2015-07jul16.pdf

From that you should be able to identify markets which we import far more than we export and that would be the markets I would target taking lessons from the Dutch. Must say I was really impressed earlier this year to find Aldi selling English tomato in there supermarkets from the Isle of Wight two weeks earlier than any Dutch tomato and they competed with the Dutch all the way through the early tomato season.

 

[Muddyboots]

I sometimes wonder how and why we allowed ourselves to get into a situation where we utterly depend on on a large BACS payment to arive in our Bank accounts to survive.

Trouble is that it was forced upon us by the EU by the invention of IACS, followed by SFP, then BPS. Every Estate Agent, Landlord, grain merchant, spray manufacture, fertiliser manufacturer and machinery dealer we use knows we get it and that is why we are constantly in a muddle.

Worse still, that payment has allowed rules and regulations to beat us over the head with, or we don't get the money. No sub and they cannot control us. And governments love to be able control the countryside and provide cheap food to voters to keep them happy. Should we allow them to continue to do so?

The EU will collapse one day and probably sooner now we are leaving it.. Bloody good job too! One day we will get back to some proper farming with what the market will need. Sooner the better.

Apart from the very first few years in it, mY father did much better before we joined the EEC than the last 35 years we have been in the EU.

Both my Granfathers did very well indeed way before we joined the EEC.
They privately educated my parents, who struggled more to privately educate me. My kids weren't so fortunate. But have you noticed that just about every rep from every company You buy from seems to privately educate their kids?

It's all a matter of perspective that has become unbalanced, thanks to those subs.

Unless you own and farm good, high yielding land or have development land you can raise capital on to keep bunging money into your farm business, you are going to be in difficulties. It was way passed time to change the system and now we can.

It won't happen over night, but we have just taken the first step. Be patient!

Big tick, brilliant

 

[Muddyboots]

When I was growing up and started farming there was little regulation and no subsidy but we were a one hell of a lot better off than we are today.
If the government decide not to subsidise food production then the public will soon realise that the era of cheap food will have come to and end.

 

[More to life]

The starting point should be when's the next rent review.

 

[More to life]

When I was growing up and started farming there was little regulation and no subsidy but we were a one hell of a lot better off than we are today.
If the government decide not to subsidise food production then the public will soon realise that the era of cheap food will have come to and end.

Are you pre war then it's had subs for 70 years

 

[glasshouse]

every working person in this country is struggling since the banking crisis, everyone is skint. We have been sucking on the tit from the eu while the poor were starving.
Nothing personal and sorry for being abrupt ( stressful day ) I'm just fed up of this pessimistic stuff on the telly and radio all the time, borrowings cheaper, the low pound will help exports and other country's will find it dearer to export to our country ( New Zealand )
The working persons wages will level out instead of dropping and house prices are going down ( helping young couples to own a house at last )
If people ain't careful they will talk themselves broke for no reason, It's looking at the glass half full, not half empty and two years before you need the big decisions making.

Well said
I think we may well have an election soon, which mr corbyn may win. A true labour govt will be good for farmers, but bad for property owners, and we havent had one for 47 yrs.
I dont see the future as gloomy as some, yes it will be tough, but when the big agri companies staffed by immigrants have to retrench, the pressure on small businesses will reduce.

 

[glasshouse]

I don't plan any more. With wild weather and three volatile business partners I follow the philosophy of sergeant Troy.

The past was yesterday, the present is today and the future in tomorrow.

Keep calm and carry on. It'll blow over.

what was sgt troys philosophy?

 

[Ashtree]

It is far too soon after the referendum for the dust to have settled. Everybody just needs to calm down for a while.. Your grain sales will benefit from the £ dropping, which will more than outweigh your fuel price rises.

The remainers have made such a fuss that it is almost like the have made all the doom and gloom that project fear predicted come true, to spite those who voted leave.

Be patient and stop fussing and worrying. There really is nothing you can do until things become clearer in the months, not days, to come.

You suggest that a 750 acre farm business should stop planning in the same way as the Brexit leaders had no plan.
Any half assed busines, government, would be government, opposition, at a minimum has done a "what if scenario" as a section in their business plan.
Of course Brexit Ltd directors have now been caught out. Absolutely no plan for "what if we win this damn vote"!!!!! The outcome had been mayhem. Directors resigning, stabbed in the back, jumping overboard, currency in free fall, ........ You absolutely couldn't make it up!!

JB I'm sure as a successful business man, has already seen the carnage and is planning his way through it, whilst you lot sip tea and play the violin badly!!!

 

[opininionated]

You suggest that a 750 acre farm business should stop planning in the same way as the Brexit leaders had no plan.
Any half assed busines, government, would be government, opposition, at a minimum has done a "what if scenario" as a section in their business plan.
Of course Brexit Ltd directors have now been caught out. Absolutely no plan for "what if we win this damn vote"!!!!! The outcome had been mayhem. Directors resigning, stabbed in the back, jumping overboard, currency in free fall, ........ You absolutely couldn't make it up!!

JB I'm sure as a successful business man, has already seen the carnage and is planning his way through it, whilst you lot sip tea and play the violin badly!!!

I see you are still suffering from a severe case of cognitive dissonance.

 

[turbo]

You suggest that a 750 acre farm business should stop planning in the same way as the Brexit leaders had no plan.
Any half assed busines, government, would be government, opposition, at a minimum has done a "what if scenario" as a section in their business plan.
Of course Brexit Ltd directors have now been caught out. Absolutely no plan for "what if we win this damn vote"!!!!! The outcome had been mayhem. Directors resigning, stabbed in the back, jumping overboard, currency in free fall, ........ You absolutely couldn't make it up!!

JB I'm sure as a successful business man, has already seen the carnage and is planning his way through it, whilst you lot sip tea and play the violin badly!!!

I Think they have a plan but they are hoping by the time they have to do anything about it most people will of forgotten what they promised.

 

[Henarar]

New entrants will enjoy the opportunities that the CAP closed. Buying entitlements or quotas, paying inflated rentals is the biggest brake on new entrants ever invented.

Why do you say that ? new entrants could get cap payments
I spose cap payments may put the price of land up and the price of renting
So we will see if they remove payments then the price of land will drop according to your theory also the price of renting land
like lots of things to do with leaving the EU it will be interesting to see what happens
I think we will have payment much the same as now for another three years at least then we will have different payments if you want to claim them, they may be less, they may be harder to get but I wouldn't mind betting there will still be some

 

[Will Blackburn]

You suggest that a 750 acre farm business should stop planning in the same way as the Brexit leaders had no plan.
Any half assed busines, government, would be government, opposition, at a minimum has done a "what if scenario" as a section in their business plan.
Of course Brexit Ltd directors have now been caught out. Absolutely no plan for "what if we win this damn vote"!!!!! The outcome had been mayhem. Directors resigning, stabbed in the back, jumping overboard, currency in free fall, ........ You absolutely couldn't make it up!!

JB I'm sure as a successful business man, has already seen the carnage and is planning his way through it, whilst you lot sip tea and play the violin badly!!!

How much planning went into remaining, just going with the flow got us up to our necks in Europoo.

Two years + is plenty of time to get something together. We plan ahead but have to deal with whatever the UK weather has to throw at us. Far more predictability in trade negotiations et al.

 

[glasshouse]

You suggest that a 750 acre farm business should stop planning in the same way as the Brexit leaders had no plan.
Any half assed busines, government, would be government, opposition, at a minimum has done a "what if scenario" as a section in their business plan.
Of course Brexit Ltd directors have now been caught out. Absolutely no plan for "what if we win this damn vote"!!!!! The outcome had been mayhem. Directors resigning, stabbed in the back, jumping overboard, currency in free fall, ........ You absolutely couldn't make it up!!

JB I'm sure as a successful business man, has already seen the carnage and is planning his way through it, whilst you lot sip tea and play the violin badly!!!

You can only make a plan when you have hard information, and the only hard information is no sub world prices, anything else is a bonus

 

[Ukjay]

I like that post but don't be bitter about things you can't influence the job has always evolved it's the pace of change that's the problem

It's not being bitter I can assure you (each to their own), but it is actually a social fact which everyone is aware of.
Unfortunately the written word is so open to be read many different ways, that this is always one of the concerns I have in posting on forums. People's perceptions are made without even knowing the person making the comments, and it can often lead to real misunderstandings.
Also, from my perspective, individuals can influence it as I am doing in my own life, as I vote with where I spend my money. Yes one can argue the impact of my influence is substantually limited as I am part of a minority, but there is an impact on the bottom line none the less.

'Pace of change' - we could ponder that one for days, but I believe our views would be so diverse, it would serve no use to this thread or in general, so I will simply agree here

 

[Clive]

Some positives

Until we do leave the bps will keep coming

The £ will be weak so export easier and prices higher

Rents will drop massively if there is no acre based sub system in the future

People need to eat and a weak £ will make imported food look expensive. More home produced meat means more home produced feed for them etc

It will all balance out - can anyone honestly realistically imagine a situation where there is no agriculture in the UK ? No crops and no livestock anywhere ?


......... I don't think so

 

[reverand]

Some positives

Until we do leave the bps will keep coming

The £ will be weak so export easier and prices higher

Rents will drop massively if there is no acre based sub system in the future

People need to eat and a weak £ will make imported food look expensive. More home produced meat means more home produced feed for them etc

It will all balance out - can anyone honestly realistically imagine a situation where there is no agriculture in the UK ? No crops and no livestock anywhere ?


......... I don't think so[/QUOTE
No but I can imagine a countryside without family farms, without community's.
It's the whole social aspect of the countryside that will suffer. I don't know what it's like we're you live but the farming community is strong here, all helping out were possible. Country schools gone, shops shut. Pubs shut. . I am believe it or not a vary positive person but the countryside could quite easily become a sterile soulless place

 

[tje]

The only way rents will drop if there is a massive drop in profitable for uk ag ....not good for anyone ....Landlords , farmers , machinery dealers and the rest of the trades etc ...

Some positives

Until we do leave the bps will keep coming

The £ will be weak so export easier and prices higher

Rents will drop massively if there is no acre based sub system in the future

People need to eat and a weak £ will make imported food look expensive. More home produced meat means more home produced feed for them etc

It will all balance out - can anyone honestly realistically imagine a situation where there is no agriculture in the UK ? No crops and no livestock anywhere ?


......... I don't think so

 

[Top Tip.]

Some positives

Until we do leave the bps will keep coming

The £ will be weak so export easier and prices higher

Rents will drop massively if there is no acre based sub system in the future

People need to eat and a weak £ will make imported food look expensive. More home produced meat means more home produced feed for them etc

It will all balance out - can anyone honestly realistically imagine a situation where there is no agriculture in the UK ? No crops and no livestock anywhere ?


......... I don't think so

I think you are probably right but what concerns me is that in the livestock situation we will go back to the BSE and F and M days when our export markets were severely restricted and our livelihoods were reduced to poverty levels I kept going then because I could see that it would get better I have no such optimism this time.