Brexit ! What does this mean for us & you the farmers ?

[digaholedumper]

We would like to here peoples views on what they think Brexit will mean & how incomes & spending patterns will be influenced as we move closer to the dead-line & beyond .

 

[rob1]

the sun will rise the sun will set, in ten years time it will still be doing it and the rest will be history and the wild predictions will be forgotten

 

[Formatted]

the sun will rise the sun will set, in ten years time it will still be doing it and the rest will be history and the wild predictions will be forgotten

Nice sentiment but reality is slightly different. I voted for Brexit, I genuinely believe 40 years down the line we'll be better off but in the short-term we are heading for a bit of a car crash.

If we leave in March 2019 without a free-trade deal with Europe, we'll see Lamb prices fall through the floor. Beef and Dairy could do well as we are a net importer, I imagine arable returns will be the same. Inputs will increase as everything bought from the EU will have tariffs on it.

Subsidy is going in 2022, those that think it isn't need to wake up. Environmental, public goods (Hill farms that can't make money) and open access will receive additional funding.

We won't have a bonfire of regulation that many are hoping for. We are likely to have to compete with imports from nations that have lower standards of production like Argentina and America as government seeks to get trade deals they will happily sacrifice farming.

 

[Sonoftheheir]

Can’t ‘like’ that ^ but I reckon your right.

 

[Farma Parma]

Had a meeting with lots of other tenants on the huge estate i rent my farm off today & id say there concerned as to what with happen after brexit as we know just as much as they do our rents are valued at what the farm can earn..... subs or income take a major hit then so do our rents.

 

[Robigus]

@Clive stick this in the Brexit section please.

 

[gone up the hill]

We would like to here peoples views on what they think Brexit will mean & how incomes & spending patterns will be influenced as we move closer to the dead-line & beyond .

Who are We ??!

 

[gone up the hill]

Nice sentiment but reality is slightly different. I voted for Brexit, I genuinely believe 40 years down the line we'll be better off but in the short-term we are heading for a bit of a car crash.

If we leave in March 2019 with free-trade deal with Europe, we'll see Lamb prices fall through the floor. Beef and Dairy could do well as we are a net importer, I imagine arable returns will be the same. Inputs will increase as everything bought from the EU will have tariffs on it.

Subsidy is going in 2022, those that think it isn't need to wake up. Environmental, public goods (Hill farms that can't make money) and open access will receive additional funding.

We won't have a bonfire of regulation that many are hoping for. We are likely to have to compete with imports from nations that have lower standards of production like Argentina and America as government seeks to get trade deals they will happily sacrifice farming.

If we have trade deals with America then beef wont be any good either!

 

[Yale]

Nice sentiment but reality is slightly different. I voted for Brexit, I genuinely believe 40 years down the line we'll be better off but in the short-term we are heading for a bit of a car crash.

If we leave in March 2019 with free-trade deal with Europe, we'll see Lamb prices fall through the floor. Beef and Dairy could do well as we are a net importer, I imagine arable returns will be the same. Inputs will increase as everything bought from the EU will have tariffs on it.

Subsidy is going in 2022, those that think it isn't need to wake up. Environmental, public goods (Hill farms that can't make money) and open access will receive additional funding.

We won't have a bonfire of regulation that many are hoping for. We are likely to have to compete with imports from nations that have lower standards of production like Argentina and America as government seeks to get trade deals they will happily sacrifice farming.

Agriculture will always be subsidised as its too important an industry for government not to have a hold over farmers.

Subsidies may be less but they will be at alevel where they are worth claiming and DEFRA can still have a hold over farmers,not to mention all the jobs within government which rely on a subsidy system.

 

[J 1177]

Nice sentiment but reality is slightly different. I voted for Brexit, I genuinely believe 40 years down the line we'll be better off but in the short-term we are heading for a bit of a car crash.

If we leave in March 2019 with free-trade deal with Europe, we'll see Lamb prices fall through the floor. Beef and Dairy could do well as we are a net importer, I imagine arable returns will be the same. Inputs will increase as everything bought from the EU will have tariffs on it.

Subsidy is going in 2022, those that think it isn't need to wake up. Environmental, public goods (Hill farms that can't make money) and open access will receive additional funding.

We won't have a bonfire of regulation that many are hoping for. We are likely to have to compete with imports from nations that have lower standards of production like Argentina and America as government seeks to get trade deals they will happily sacrifice farming.

Think you have got it spot on

 

[J 1177]

If we have trade deals with America then beef wont be any good either!

I hear this constantly said guth but id like to know how much cheaper N american beef is? I would have thought south american beef would be the biggest threat.

 

[caveman]

I hear this constantly said guth but id like to know how much cheaper N american beef is? I would have thought south american beef would be the biggest threat.

Whichever.
It'll still be cheaper than Irish........ which will be a good choice for consumers.

 

[roscoe erf]

@Clive stick this in the Brexit section please.

@Clive

 

[caveman]

@Clive stick this in the Brexit section please.

@Clive

The section you refer to is Brexit and POLITICS.

Is there a good reason that Brexit and Agriculture should not be discussed in an Agricultural Matters forum?

 

[Dave645]

Nice sentiment but reality is slightly different. I voted for Brexit, I genuinely believe 40 years down the line we'll be better off but in the short-term we are heading for a bit of a car crash.

If we leave in March 2019 with free-trade deal with Europe, we'll see Lamb prices fall through the floor. Beef and Dairy could do well as we are a net importer, I imagine arable returns will be the same. Inputs will increase as everything bought from the EU will have tariffs on it.

Subsidy is going in 2022, those that think it isn't need to wake up. Environmental, public goods (Hill farms that can't make money) and open access will receive additional funding.

We won't have a bonfire of regulation that many are hoping for. We are likely to have to compete with imports from nations that have lower standards of production like Argentina and America as government seeks to get trade deals they will happily sacrifice farming.

You mention free trade deal and tariffs, if we get a free trade deal, there will be no tariffs, just the exchange rate between the UK and the EU.
Which will be plenty if the pound stays low. But it does give us opertunities to export into the EU far easier. As we are far more competitive on price now the £ has fallen against the €. It's what Germany did they ramped up production and exported like mad at the same time they increased production of locally needed items so they had good trade balances. To reduce the impact of import prices rising.
It's all in how you setup your economy. To how it effects you in good and bad ways.

I too think in the long term we will be better off out of the EU.

 

[neilo]

Agriculture will always be subsidised as its too important an industry for government not to have a hold over farmers.

Subsidies may be less but they will be at alevel where they are worth claiming and DEFRA can still have a hold over farmers,not to mention all the jobs within government which rely on a subsidy system.

I admire your optimism.

I've noticed recently that @gone up the hill seems to have considerably less than he did a few months ago.

If we have trade deals with America then beef wont be any good either!

 

[neilo]

the sun will rise the sun will set, in ten years time it will still be doing it and the rest will be history and the wild predictions will be forgotten

You're right of course, the world will still turn, there will still be farmers, rules and regulations, it will just be different.

I would expect it to be a lot easier to enjoy the sun rising and setting, as there will be considerably fewer of those nasty, smelly farmers spoiling the view.

 

[Walterp]

I hear this constantly said guth but id like to know how much cheaper N american beef is? I would have thought south american beef would be the biggest threat.

Rough benchmark at 2016 Sterling is £800/head for a fat animal in Chicago but £500/head in BA.

Both products are, generally speaking, as good as domestic produce.

 

[Walterp]

I too think in the long term we will be better off out of the EU.

Why?

Farmers keep saying this, no one else does, is there any evidence for it, please?

 

[Farfrae]

We would like to here peoples views on what they think Brexit will mean & how incomes & spending patterns will be influenced as we move closer to the dead-line & beyond .

Well as the British goovernment doesn't have a clue or a coherent plan after 500 days why would farmers have any more idea?