Brexit ! What does this mean for us & you the farmers ?

[Formatted]

Agriculture will always be subsidised as its too important an industry for government not to have a hold over farmers.

Subsidies may be less but they will be at alevel where they are worth claiming and DEFRA can still have a hold over farmers,not to mention all the jobs within government which rely on a subsidy system.

I'm involved in a couple of things at government level. I am telling you, if you are a low-land farm in the heart of the south east and you do nothing for the environment, you are not open to the public then you will not receive subsidy.

 

[farmerm]

Agriculture will always be subsidised as its too important an industry for government not to have a hold over farmers.

Subsidies may be less but they will be at alevel where they are worth claiming and DEFRA can still have a hold over farmers,not to mention all the jobs within government which rely on a subsidy system.

DEFRA under Gove will be quiet happily to take away the carrot and beat us with the stick. Lets get real, few in our urban centric parliament consider our industry important. Agriculture will be a sacrificial lamb in trade deals! MPs on both sides have spouted on about cheaper food imports post Brexit as being a good thing.

 

[Walterp]

Well as the British goovernment doesn't have a clue or a coherent plan after 500 days why would farmers have any more idea?

"Je pense que oui."

 

[romneymarsh]

It's going to be sh*t and the biggest have furthest to fall.

The scale of denial in farming circles is frankly unbelievable.

 

[farmerm]

You mention free trade deal and tariffs, if we get a free trade deal, there will be no tariffs, just the exchange rate between the UK and the EU.
Which will be plenty if the pound stays low. But it does give us opertunities to export into the EU far easier. As we are far more competitive on price now the £ has fallen against the €. It's what Germany did they ramped up production and exported like mad at the same time...

Anyone who believes we can come out with a free trade deal with the EU without free movement of people and our own international trading arrangements is living in cloud cookcoo land.

 

[Ramrod]

Nice sentiment but reality is slightly different. I voted for Brexit, I genuinely believe 40 years down the line we'll be better off but in the short-term we are heading for a bit of a car crash.

If we leave in March 2019 with free-trade deal with Europe, we'll see Lamb prices fall through the floor. Beef and Dairy could do well as we are a net importer, I imagine arable returns will be the same. Inputs will increase as everything bought from the EU will have tariffs on it.

Subsidy is going in 2022, those that think it isn't need to wake up. Environmental, public goods (Hill farms that can't make money) and open access will receive additional funding.

We won't have a bonfire of regulation that many are hoping for. We are likely to have to compete with imports from nations that have lower standards of production like Argentina and America as government seeks to get trade deals they will happily sacrifice farming.

Free trade or tariff ? Doesn't work both ways !!!!

 

[Formatted]

You mention free trade deal and tariffs, if we get a free trade deal, there will be no tariffs, just the exchange rate between the UK and the EU.

We are almost certain to crash out in 2019. Even if we do negotiate a free trade deal, there is no guarantee that the 27 will co-opt it and then it has to pass the test of the ECJ, the ECJ have been know to strike down trade deals that they don't have jurisdiction over, given that a big part of the leave argument was that we are taking back sovereignty I can't see this going down well at home.

 

[Formatted]

Free trade or tariff ? Doesn't work both ways !!!!

Meant to say without a free-trade deal.

 

[caveman]

I'm involved in a couple of things at government level. I am telling you, if you are a low-land farm in the heart of the south east and you do nothing for the environment, you are not open to the public then you will not receive subsidy.

Re the title of the thread.
Is this the kind of thing the OP is asking?
The relationship, interreaction, etc, between agriculture and the general population?

 

[romneymarsh]

Nice sentiment but reality is slightly different. I voted for Brexit, I genuinely believe 40 years down the line we'll be better off but in the short-term we are heading for a bit of a car crash.

If we leave in March 2019 without a free-trade deal with Europe, we'll see Lamb prices fall through the floor. Beef and Dairy could do well as we are a net importer, I imagine arable returns will be the same. Inputs will increase as everything bought from the EU will have tariffs on it.

Subsidy is going in 2022, those that think it isn't need to wake up. Environmental, public goods (Hill farms that can't make money) and open access will receive additional funding.

We won't have a bonfire of regulation that many are hoping for. We are likely to have to compete with imports from nations that have lower standards of production like Argentina and America as government seeks to get trade deals they will happily sacrifice farming.

When political horizons are measured in periods of less than 5 years a 40 year 'bright future' is irrelevant . A divided electorate split roughy 50:50, this could still go either way and it will depend on how big the 'car crash' and how long it goes on.

 

[Danllan]

Just out of interest and for the record @digaholedumper, take a look at the comments made by the contributors to this thread in the pre-Brexit threads of last year. You'll see a fair correlation to what's being written now, hardly anyone has changed their mind either way.

Those of us who wanted Brexit are still optimistic, we expected short term pain and consider it worth it for the long term benefits. Those who wanted to Remain are still predicting the end of the world, it's just that the predicted date for the end has had to be put back a few times.

Obviously nobody knows exactly what will happen, but it's safe to say that consumers won't find food prices getting silly because no government wants revolution. We farmers will have to face being in the world market for most products, direct subsidy will go, environmental 'rewards' - not incentives - will replace them, same money just a different and more politically sellable excuse for dolling it out.

 

[Pennine Ploughing]

Free trade or tariff ? Doesn't work both ways !!!!

the way negations are going, it might happen

 

[Walterp]

Just out of interest and for the record @digaholedumper, take a look at the comments made by the contributors to this thread in the pre-Brexit threads of last year. You'll see a fair correlation to what's being written now, hardly anyone has changed their mind either way.

Actually, three things have changed quite noticeably:

1. the electorate would, if we have a second referendum, now vote 'Remain'.

2. the public has lost nearly all faith in the Tories and, when there is another election, there will be a greater swing (again) towards Labour pour faute de meilleur.

3. the omissions and lies that underlay the 'Leave' campaign are now becoming ever more apparent. See 1 and 2 above. All that is left now is political bullying, which is counter-productive - who now thinks Theresa May can stay long in post? Or should?

I think that the mood of the UK is changing, at one of those periodic inflection points that are a feature of FPTP States, that may usher in quite radical change.

(But anyone who thinks that HM Treasury will fund £3 billion of UK environmental schemes is in denial anyway).

 

[Farma Parma]

Actually, three things have changed quite noticeably:

1. the electorate would, if we have a second referendum, now vote 'Remain'.

2. the public has lost nearly all faith in the Tories and, when there is another election, there will be a greater swing (again) towards Labour pour faute de meilleur.

3. the omissions and lies that underlay the 'Leave' campaign are now becoming ever more apparent. See 1 and 2 above. All that is left now is political bullying, which is counter-productive - who now thinks Theresa May can stay long in post? Or should?

I think that the mood of the UK is changing, at one of those periodic inflection points that are a feature of FPTP States, that may usher in quite radical change.

(But anyone who thinks that HM Treasury will fund £3 billion of UK environmental schemes is in denial anyway).

id hate top admit it but your probs right on all accounts...
i personally would still vote to leave just to create the poss sort out it all needs.. but aside from that the tories are in a mess.
& the labour lot... good god we cant have a steptoe look a-like running the country surely....

 

[romneymarsh]

Actually, three things have changed quite noticeably:

1. the electorate would, if we have a second referendum, now vote 'Remain'.

2. the public has lost nearly all faith in the Tories and, when there is another election, there will be a greater swing (again) towards Labour pour faute de meilleur.

3. the omissions and lies that underlay the 'Leave' campaign are now becoming ever more apparent. See 1 and 2 above. All that is left now is political bullying, which is counter-productive - who now thinks Theresa May can stay long in post? Or should?

I think that the mood of the UK is changing, at one of those periodic inflection points that are a feature of FPTP States, that may usher in quite radical change.

(But anyone who thinks that HM Treasury will fund £3 billion of UK environmental schemes is in denial anyway).

The swing to the left frightens me more than the Brexit scenarios. It could well, in a knee jerk reaction, be much further extreme adjustment to the left than the Liberal Socialist system that The People voted to leave.

 

[milkloss]

(But anyone who thinks that HM Treasury will fund £3 billion of UK environmental schemes is in denial anyway).

70% of the uk landmass is used for agriculture so why not? Let's face it they blow enough cash in other places: foreign aid as an example is predicted to rise to £14.4 billion in 2021!

No french was required in this post

 

[Walterp]

id hate top admit it but your probs right on all accounts...
i personally would still vote to leave just to create the poss sort out it all needs.. but aside from that the tories are in a mess.
& the labour lot... good god we cant have a steptoe look a-like running the country surely....

"You get the politicians you deserve." (orig. Socrates)

Which is a worrying thought.

 

[Walterp]

70% of the uk landmass is used for agriculture so why not? Let's face it they blow enough cash in other places: foreign aid as an example is predicted to rise to £14.4 billion in 2021!

No french was required in this post

Lack of political will.

 

[Farma Parma]

70% of the uk landmass is used for agriculture so why not? Let's face it they blow enough cash in other places: foreign aid as an example is predicted to rise to £14.4 billion in 2021!

No french was required in this post

anyone got the figures what 70% of the uk landmass produces in money terms compared to city business stuff ? i bet its way lower than we think... In recent discussions about what the Landlords income was being a tenant farmer it used to be 75/80% was all from the farm rents.... we recon that in real money value is now 25%

 

[Yale]

I'm involved in a couple of things at government level. I am telling you, if you are a low-land farm in the heart of the south east and you do nothing for the environment, you are not open to the public then you will not receive subsidy.

If we get into that situation it will have meant a hard Brexit has occurred.

Hard Brexit means crashing pound and farmers gaining more on commodities as we have already.

This is without the Corbyn factor.

Subsidies may become irrelevant.

We can only import food if we have the currency to afford it.