Brexit will happen! What's next?

[Ashtree]

Increasingly it looks like Brexit will win the referendum. Maybe a ten percent margin I guess.

What happens next?

Cameron has lost so he has to step down!
Who takes over? Absolutely no guarantee a Brexiter wins in a contested election given the split in the party!!

Will the infighting and inevitable sniping from Farage on the sidelines lead to gridlock in government? Probably!!

General election within 2 years. Probably!

Tories still in meltdown. Probably!

Will labour win the election? Probably.

Will SNP get its mojo back and will Scotland get and win a vote to leave UK and rejoin EU? Possibly!

Will immigrants still be pouring in at an even higher rate? Definitely.

Will there be a growing grassroots movement to rejoin the EU? Probably!!

It's a funny old game this Brexit thing. Isn't it!!

 

[RobFZS]

labour have a 13% swing with boundary changes and the 3rd largest party in scotland? only if they get shut of corbyn, which could take forever

 

[jockthethistle]

Funny it's hysterical .. And not just hysterically funny .... Passion is being shown on Brexit side .. Not so much passion on the remain side ... Still too close to call .... ASHTREE I read most of your posts you balance the argument very well ... Teresa's for pm Cameron is on a shaky nail .. He is a brave politician .. But you can't toss too many coins and keep thinking you'll win. Either way he leads his party with dignity. jtt

 

[Ashtree]

Funny it's hysterical .. And not just hysterically funny .... Passion is being shown on Brexit side .. Not so much passion on the remain side ... Still too close to call .... ASHTREE I read most of your posts you balance the argument very well ... Teresa's for pm Cameron is on a shaky nail .. He is a brave politician .. But you can't toss too many coins and keep thinking you'll win. Either way he leads his party with dignity. jtt

I must check out Teresa[emoji9]. I've not noticed her much from my lair on the Atlantic shoreline here in Ireland. I see she gets positive commentary on here from Brexit camp.
Doesn't she need to put her head above the trench now and get a bit if notice! How about she outlines a policy as to how Britain will go about leaving and reconfiguring itself in the medium term?
I don't see a plan anywhere! I see gung ho rhetoric from the "leaders", but no substance[emoji15]

If Teresa has leadership qualities / ambitions she should get her plan out there ASAP!

 

[RobFZS]

I must check out Teresa[emoji9]. I've not noticed her much from my lair on the Atlantic shoreline here in Ireland. I see she gets positive commentary on here from Brexit camp.
Doesn't she need to put her head above the trench now and get a bit if notice! How about she outlines a policy as to how Britain will go about leaving and reconfiguring itself in the medium term?
I don't see a plan anywhere! I see gung ho rhetoric from the "leaders", but no substance[emoji15]

If Teresa has leadership qualities / ambitions she should get her plan out there ASAP!

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/adam-hamdy/find-out-how-the-governme_b_10373584.html?edition=uk

They will have a plan, but why would they show it to us?

 

[Henarar]

I must check out Teresa

. I've not noticed her much from my lair on the Atlantic shoreline here in Ireland

Where abouts I have relatives out there ?

 

[Pennine Ploughing]

We will exit, and then what will happen will be on the lines of,,,,,,
DC will step down, party will be split, so big changes will happen and are needed, as in this campaign from all parties they have told lie after lie and most by the conservative party, how they will hold their heads up after this I don't know, but they will, and with everything that goes wrong, they will say, the EU is making things difficult and we should of stayed in,
That would be a lame excuse, trouble is, don't know if the con party has anyone with balls, I think Boris talks a good bit of sense, but his personality and persona does not give out the signs of a strong man, where Nigel farage wins on that score, but policies are maybe not the best,
If number 10 don't get its act together soon after, they might be walked over by Europe,
There is no need to be walked over, in fact we should have the upper hand, that is if UK government do things right,
Yes we will have to have and maintain standards to deal with the eu, as for the likes of Germany saying out is out, that is a pity as I thought Germany was a good country, however trade is trade, so what ever Germany and or other EU countries want to impose on us by the way of quotas or tariffs on a percentage scale, then we must do the same to them,
Now lets say Germany wants a10% tariff on our goods, fine we sell them about 10 billion a year, so would cost us an extra billion a year, now they sell us about 100 billion and that would cost them an extra 10 billion a year, and if they want to stop all together, we are their second biggest market for BMW, so their economy would suffer with all goods not being sold to the UK,
In the short term the £ will drop, but so will the Euro, and both will rise steadily so exchange rate will be similar, but the euro will dive again if the likes of Greece pulls out, short term will not be good, but like a divorce won't take long to get on with life being single again,
Long term, our economy will strengthen and we will be better off as a country
If I was younger and had the time, I would sort the feckers out

 

[Henarar]

so what ever Germany and or other EU countries want to impose on us by the way of quotas or tariffs on a percentage scale, then we must do the same to them,

So that will make everything we want to buy that comes from the EU more expensive and everything we sell to the EU uncompetitive
Again who gets the money for tariffs ?

 

[jockthethistle]

Tariffs are taxes. In an era of tax avoidance sacrifice free trade for taxed trade ... simples .... treasuries will be overflowing ... jtt

 

[Pennine Ploughing]

Each government will get the tariffs, so the Germans would get 1billion, uk government would get 10 billion, uk government should give our exporters their tariff charge back leaving 9 billion for administrative charges and still have a profit, there for we should be able to complete as we do now

 

[jockthethistle]

Globalisation should be globaltaxation .... jtt

 

[Henarar]

So the gov will give the money to us farmers to make up for having to pay more for the stuff we buy and get less for the stuff we sell ?

 

[Henarar]

Tariffs are just a trade tax and of no benefit to me, quite the opposite

 

[Pennine Ploughing]

So the gov will give the money to us farmers to make up for having to pay more for the stuff we buy and get less for the stuff we sell ?

No not at all, the goods sold to the EU will get The tariff tax back at point of export and not before,
Goods from the EU will go up by 10% to the consumer,

 

[Henarar]

so that helps me how ?

 

[spin cycle]

we won't exit....but if we did....imagine the blackmarket in audis when the germans cut off trade.....men in trenchcoats on street corners shuffling up to you...opening their coats to show car keys and 'psst mate wanna nice audi'

how will the chattering classes survive

 

[Pennine Ploughing]

so that helps me how ?

If you buy BMW cars and fendit tractors not 1 bit until the manufacturer drops the price, if you sell goods that is exported then you will be on a level field with EU farmers, also imported food will be dearer so helping our home market,
On any goods we would only put a quota of imports from a country that put quota's on us,

 

[Henarar]

so in other words we as in farmers will be worse of

 

[Pennine Ploughing]

so in other words we as in farmers will be worse of

No you as farmers have made it worse yourselves without the help of the EU, and after we are out if the above was followed then farm gate prices will rise

 

[Pasty]

It does look like we are leaving according to the polls. I also think that Leave voters will be more likely to vote, unless it looks a done deal and Remain people are motivated to come out and stop it.

Labour will not win the next election I don't think. It's a done deal for the Tories.