Can anyonelse see a big crash coming

oil barron

Member
Location
Aberdeenshire
With everything going up in price and shortages i can see there is going to be a big crash on the horizon , the economies of a lot of countries are nearly broke and at the end of the day prices of stuff can only go so high then people stop buying as money gets tight .
Furlough finishes next week as well which is going to remove a lot of cash from the system.

folks aren't nearly in such a big hole with houses as 08 though.
 

vantage

Member
Location
Pembs
With everything going up in price and shortages i can see there is going to be a big crash on the horizon , the economies of a lot of countries are nearly broke and at the end of the day prices of stuff can only go so high then people stop buying as money gets tight .
It will readjust fairly swiftly, in the USA, using timber as an example, is now down to pre COVID prices.
 

Badshot

Member
Location
Kent
With everything going up in price and shortages i can see there is going to be a big crash on the horizon , the economies of a lot of countries are nearly broke and at the end of the day prices of stuff can only go so high then people stop buying as money gets tight .
I can definitely see a big crash coming, global.
More worrying is the risk of war due to real shortages of food.
We've got two major unfriendly powers restricting either the major input into fertiliser, or fertiliser itself.
Lack of fertiliser means lack of food.
Quite scary currently.
 

milkloss

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
East Sussex
I've been of the opinion there's a monster crash coming for ten years! I don't think 'they' can allow a crash now because it'll be so huge that even those at the top table will be in trouble. Even China looks pretty much fcked so all in the same boat I guess....... except maybe Russia because they've got europe by the balls and they're starting to turn purple.
 

farmerm

Member
Location
Shropshire
I can definitely see a big crash coming, global.
More worrying is the risk of war due to real shortages of food.
We've got two major unfriendly powers restricting either the major input into fertiliser, or fertiliser itself.
Lack of fertiliser means lack of food.
Quite scary currently.
China are not ready for war yet, but they are very much preparing for it.
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
whatever the rights or wrongs of brexit, Europe hasn't done very well through covid, and a great deal of ill feeling about brexit. But you have germany relying on russia, for 40% of it's gas, and they have reduced supply, while the rest of EU, look to them to fund the system, well the shite will hit the fan one day, that line of thought won't happen, and the UK was the 2nd largest contributor, no more.
The EU operates an isolationist policy on trade, with very tight rules, or very one sided rules, when trying to do trade deals around the world, negotiations take years and years, before, or if, agreements are done.
History clearly shows, isolationist policies, do not work, and it is a pity the EU has taken this route, it was designed to encourage trade deals, to keep the peace, the opposite is happening.
Good old bumbling boris, or the people pulling his strings, are absolutely correct in looking to the vibrant emerging economies, in the east, compared to them, many/most of the EU economies look pretty sick, and allying ourselves with them, and their mkts. The biggest problem is time, it will take time for the UK to adjust to those new markets, and have we got that time to wait ?
So, is a crash around the corner ? I think the answer is, a perfect storm of problems has made that more likely, if EU is a static, or recessional, that market for our exports will shrink, and it is how quickly, we can expand into those new mkts, which will determine what happens.
In our ag mkt, prices seem surreal, virtually everything is riding high price wise, flip side, everything we buy has moved up, to grab those high prices, so farmers are not that much better off. That balance is very delicate, imputs are at a level, which for many, are simply to dear, and the gen public, and guv, don't want food prices to rise, but they really do have to rise. Throw in a mass of environmental rules as well, many will opt/have to extensify their systems, look at fert price, or even ability to get things.
I have no idea what is around the corner, for ag, there are simply to many balls in the air, so much has changed with brexit and covid and recessions, all l can say, everybody needs food, and the 'just in time' supply chains, have proved somewhat unreliable. Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best !
 

DaveGrohl

Member
Location
Cumbria
With everything going up in price and shortages i can see there is going to be a big crash on the horizon , the economies of a lot of countries are nearly broke and at the end of the day prices of stuff can only go so high then people stop buying as money gets tight .
Short answer yep but the big question is when?

What you're decribing might be a minor recession. An actual crash is around the corner because 2008 wasn't allowed to play out properly.
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
Short answer yep but the big question is when?

What you're decribing might be a minor recession. An actual crash is around the corner because 2008 wasn't allowed to play out properly.
it's down to the money experts, to see how clever they are, in making sure we avoid another ! 2008 was a shock to the money mkts, and hopefully lessons have been learn't. Those money men, that basically control all currencies, don't want a recession, so will attempt to manipulate away from one.
Covid, was a mammoth hammer blow, no one could have really foreseen, lets hope they can steer us away.
Inflation is the bugger, but it is useful in lowering debt, the value of money decreases, your mortgage/loans stay the same, also wipes out a lot of guv borrowing repayments.
 

DaveGrohl

Member
Location
Cumbria
it's down to the money experts, to see how clever they are, in making sure we avoid another ! 2008 was a shock to the money mkts, and hopefully lessons have been learn't. Those money men, that basically control all currencies, don't want a recession, so will attempt to manipulate away from one.
Covid, was a mammoth hammer blow, no one could have really foreseen, lets hope they can steer us away.
Inflation is the bugger, but it is useful in lowering debt, the value of money decreases, your mortgage/loans stay the same, also wipes out a lot of guv borrowing repayments.
Nowt wrong with your post but lessons haven't been learnt. That's the point. 2008 ahould've brought about a huge reset/rethink but they fudged it all with the illusion they'd sorted it all out. They hadn't but they patted themselves on the back anyway. All they've done is make the imbalances even larger.
 
There is no crash coming, stop worrying, what's going to crash ?

The World is emerging from Covid, that will drive demand, the World Population is growing around 100,000,000 per year. Syria, Yemen, Iraq are all to re-build, the oil producers are looking for alternative markets to invest in. India's economy can go only one way, it's amazing that the GDP of the UK is much greater than India with a population of 1,366,000,000 !

Opportunities abound, the question is, will we get off our fat lazy axxes and grasp them.
 

Against_the_grain

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
S.E
There is no crash coming, stop worrying, what's going to crash ?

The World is emerging from Covid, that will drive demand, the World Population is growing around 100,000,000 per year. Syria, Yemen, Iraq are all to re-build, the oil producers are looking for alternative markets to invest in. India's economy can go only one way, it's amazing that the GDP of the UK is much greater than India with a population of 1,366,000,000 !

Opportunities abound, the question is, will we get off our fat lazy axxes and grasp them.
Record levels of private and government debt. Increasing debt requirements on a national scale. No where for interest rates to go. Inflation which is causing headaches for the government who are already manipulating figures. Covid fallout. Look at how the fuel crisis has been stirred up so quickly. It wouldn't take much to wobble the economy right now. I would say a crash is more likely than not
 

Update on the Sustainable Farming Incentive pilot

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Update on the Sustainable Farming Incentive pilot

Written by Lisa Applin

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In July, we opened the applications window for farmers to join our Sustainable Farming Incentive pilot.

The Sustainable Farming Incentive is 1 of the 3 new environmental land management schemes. It sits alongside the future Local Nature Recovery and Landscape Recovery schemes.

Through the Sustainable Farming Incentive, farmers will be paid for environmentally sustainable actions – ones that are simple to do and do not require previous agri-environment scheme experience.

We are piloting the scheme to...
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