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Can anyonelse see a big crash coming
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<blockquote data-quote="som farmer" data-source="post: 7768258" data-attributes="member: 86168"><p>whatever the rights or wrongs of brexit, Europe hasn't done very well through covid, and a great deal of ill feeling about brexit. But you have germany relying on russia, for 40% of it's gas, and they have reduced supply, while the rest of EU, look to them to fund the system, well the shite will hit the fan one day, that line of thought won't happen, and the UK was the 2nd largest contributor, no more.</p><p> The EU operates an isolationist policy on trade, with very tight rules, or very one sided rules, when trying to do trade deals around the world, negotiations take years and years, before, or if, agreements are done.</p><p> History clearly shows, isolationist policies, do not work, and it is a pity the EU has taken this route, it was designed to encourage trade deals, to keep the peace, the opposite is happening.</p><p> Good old bumbling boris, or the people pulling his strings, are absolutely correct in looking to the vibrant emerging economies, in the east, compared to them, many/most of the EU economies look pretty sick, and allying ourselves with them, and their mkts. The biggest problem is time, it will take time for the UK to adjust to those new markets, and have we got that time to wait ?</p><p> So, is a crash around the corner ? I think the answer is, a perfect storm of problems has made that more likely, if EU is a static, or recessional, that market for our exports will shrink, and it is how quickly, we can expand into those new mkts, which will determine what happens.</p><p> In our ag mkt, prices seem surreal, virtually everything is riding high price wise, flip side, everything we buy has moved up, to grab those high prices, so farmers are not that much better off. That balance is very delicate, imputs are at a level, which for many, are simply to dear, and the gen public, and guv, don't want food prices to rise, but they really do have to rise. Throw in a mass of environmental rules as well, many will opt/have to extensify their systems, look at fert price, or even ability to get things.</p><p> I have no idea what is around the corner, for ag, there are simply to many balls in the air, so much has changed with brexit and covid and recessions, all l can say, everybody needs food, and the 'just in time' supply chains, have proved somewhat unreliable. Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best !</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="som farmer, post: 7768258, member: 86168"] whatever the rights or wrongs of brexit, Europe hasn't done very well through covid, and a great deal of ill feeling about brexit. But you have germany relying on russia, for 40% of it's gas, and they have reduced supply, while the rest of EU, look to them to fund the system, well the shite will hit the fan one day, that line of thought won't happen, and the UK was the 2nd largest contributor, no more. The EU operates an isolationist policy on trade, with very tight rules, or very one sided rules, when trying to do trade deals around the world, negotiations take years and years, before, or if, agreements are done. History clearly shows, isolationist policies, do not work, and it is a pity the EU has taken this route, it was designed to encourage trade deals, to keep the peace, the opposite is happening. Good old bumbling boris, or the people pulling his strings, are absolutely correct in looking to the vibrant emerging economies, in the east, compared to them, many/most of the EU economies look pretty sick, and allying ourselves with them, and their mkts. The biggest problem is time, it will take time for the UK to adjust to those new markets, and have we got that time to wait ? So, is a crash around the corner ? I think the answer is, a perfect storm of problems has made that more likely, if EU is a static, or recessional, that market for our exports will shrink, and it is how quickly, we can expand into those new mkts, which will determine what happens. In our ag mkt, prices seem surreal, virtually everything is riding high price wise, flip side, everything we buy has moved up, to grab those high prices, so farmers are not that much better off. That balance is very delicate, imputs are at a level, which for many, are simply to dear, and the gen public, and guv, don't want food prices to rise, but they really do have to rise. Throw in a mass of environmental rules as well, many will opt/have to extensify their systems, look at fert price, or even ability to get things. I have no idea what is around the corner, for ag, there are simply to many balls in the air, so much has changed with brexit and covid and recessions, all l can say, everybody needs food, and the 'just in time' supply chains, have proved somewhat unreliable. Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best ! [/QUOTE]
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