Can the US and China reach a trade deal?

CRM AgriCommodities

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
UK
Cereals

A rather quiet session in Europe with both LIFFE and Matif wheat edging lower over a weakening US dollar and with limited trading volumes.

According to today's HMRC data, the UK exported only 47KT of wheat in Dec-18 and imported more than 152KT. Consequently, the UK has now been a net importer of wheat since January 2017.

UK maize imports in December 2018 stood above 195KT taking the total so far this season [Jul-Dec] to a record 1.2MMT, explaining why domestic barley prices have come under pressure.

The recent drop in global prices pushes major importers to jump in with Algeria and Tunisia tendering for wheat.

CONAB raised its 2018/19 Brazil total corn production forecast by 0.5MMT to 91.7MMT vs 94.5MMT for the USDA and 81MMT last year.

Private US exporters reported the flash export sales of 122.4KT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the2018/2019 marketing year.
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Oilseeds

Despite a rallying US soybean complex due to optimism over a potential trade agreement between the US and China, EU rapeseed continued lower for a 3rd consecutive session and settled at its lowest level since mid-January.

The main catalyst behind today's decline in rapeseed values was a news from the EU which announced it would exempt 8 Argentine biodiesel producers from imports taxes as long as they comply with the new minimum price policy [full articleclick here].

CBOT soybeans rallied more than 1% today with the US and China one step closer to a potential trade agreement although US President Trump implied it would unlikely happen before the March 1st deadline as he considers pushing it if a deal is close enough.

Unsurprisingly, CONAB lowered its 2018/19Brazil soybean crop forecast from118.8MMT to 115MMT ie -2MMT vs the USDA estimate. The country's Ag policy secretary added that further cuts are likely due to the January dry spell.
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Futures and Options
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