Can we all carry on farming?

jack6480

Member
Location
Staffs
It’s abit of a mish mash at the moment as we are in the process of joining two farms together for labour and machinery. Extremely high crop prices and inflation have kind of scuppered some of the ideas of 18 months ago.
1 big tractor, 3 normal ones, a trailed sprayer and an older self prop, 2x 12m drills one 3 years old one 7, a lexicon that’s 2 seasons old and an 8 year old jd combine on a stripper header, some trailers, a twin leg mole and an old subsoiler.
like I said we are in the middle of sorting it all out, I didn’t want to cut too far because a spreadsheet said to then realise we needed to buy back into something.
I thought you said you did everything yourself? How do you get time to drive 4 tractors and a sp sprayer
 

Spud

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
YO62
I don’t know if we can carry on.
Not that we don’t want to.
The combine is 40 this year.
The splines on the half shafts have actually worn out. One side sheared them completely last year and we lost drive. Replaced with a part from a scrap yard but only half of the joint so won’t last long.
The engine is blowing as much exhaust gas out the breather as the exhaust when you open her up and despite all efforts with cooling system etc she tends to run hot. Spool valve block is leaking internally so won’t keep drum speed. John Deere want £5000 for a new block so hawking it round the independent hydraulic specialists is only hope.
Forget buying a replacement machine. Secondhand out of our league. You'll buy a 25yo New Holland for under £20k that will be a lot more reliable than a JD and lose very little. You'll buy one for £10k for 200ac if you look hard enough. (TC56 etal not an old 1550)
I’d say we are getting near to end of farming it ourselves.
And buying fertiliser for next year??!!!
Normally we buy in June but this year I reckon it will cost us £40k for a 200 acre arable farm if we do it “properly”. £200 an acre on fertiliser? What's your rotation?
Not really sustainable on grade 3. Grade 3 can be very productive land
If commodities remain high we could cover the increased costs maybe even make a good profit but it’s suddenly become a very high stakes game where if it goes wrong we’d be looking at a forced sale rather than a dip into our own reserves. A wide range of crops will spread some risk
What to do? Crop half, let some? Do another job? Get a contractor in? Let the lot to my cousin? Carry on till the combine finally blows?
What to do? First, decide what YOU want to do, not what's best for the farm
Crop half, let some? is 100ac cropping going to keep you busy and pay bills? I'd say let the lot or none
Do another job? Do you have any livestock? Arguably 200ac arable is an after tea job with simple combinables
Get a contractor in? Alongside getting a job? Maybe. Expensive though, and you still have the outlay and risk without necessarily the control you have now
Let the lot to my cousin? An option, if you get on. Share farm it with him to retain active farmer status?
Carry on till the combine finally blows? Bonkers, get the thing changed, you don't need that hassle any more than the solobeet

iirc you have some sheep - are they something you enjoy?
Grass for grazing and hay on the awkward bits. Winter barley for early harvest, straw, early £ and stubble turnip entry. Follow with spring malting barley. Cover crop grazed by sheep. Then oats for feeding the sheep or milling and high grade straw. Wheat for £. Another cover crop. Spring beans. Back to winter barley.
Approx £100/ac in fert including a bit of p&k
Find yourself a nice blue 3m Moore drill that you can pull with 90hp and enjoy improving the soil.
If you want a bit less work and a bit more £ let a bit out for beet/maize/potatoes
 

kiwi pom

Member
Location
canterbury NZ
While bps is still there have you worked out your income if you dont leave the house?
I was wondering that, what is it at the moment 75 quid an acre? 200 acres would be 15k, You'd still get a little rent on top of that wouldn't you?
So you end up with 20k before you leave the house, not too bad especially if you own the house too. If it gets really bad the land could be sold.
 

Beefsmith

Member
I think there’s going to be some heated discussions within contract farming agreements due to the fert and fuel because most of them are set up to effectively pay a set rent over the duration of the agreement. If the contractor suddenly says look our fuel bill has doubled to do the work and fertiliser is up by 200% and the subsidy is being reduced so we need to wind in the ‘rent’ in. I’ve a friend is Scotland that’s already fallen out with his contractor over his 1500ac. So the agreement has fallen apart and he’s going to put the lot into CS and Woodland as he’s fed up and his children aren’t interested. The contractors going mad because he refused to take the hit on the cost rises. My friend said a signed deal is a signed deal.
 

ajd132

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Suffolk
I think there’s going to be some heated discussions within contract farming agreements due to the fert and fuel because most of them are set up to effectively pay a set rent over the duration of the agreement. If the contractor suddenly says look our fuel bill has doubled to do the work and fertiliser is up by 200% and the subsidy is being reduced so we need to wind in the ‘rent’ in. I’ve a friend is Scotland that’s already fallen out with his contractor over his 1500ac. So the agreement has fallen apart and he’s going to put the lot into CS and Woodland as he’s fed up and his children aren’t interested. The contractors going mad because he refused to take the hit on the cost rises. My friend said a signed deal is a signed deal.
Could well be a common scenario
 

Beefsmith

Member
Could well be a common scenario

I had a local friend ask me last week would I take his 250ac on (land only) and he keeps the yard for himself and how much would I pay. I sat down for a couple of hours and kept coming back to £0/ac for the rent because of the current input cost and fuel price issues, then he keeps the subsidy till it ends to ride out this current storm. Then after that we sit down and sort it out.
If I could grow 1st wheat all over it every year then it’s worth 0.5t/ac ‘rent’ I guess but I can’t and all other crops are crap 🤷🏻‍♂️. Can’t grow osr because it’s had so much the last 30 years and it’s not ‘root’ ground. Grass it down and it’s maybe worth £50/acre for sheep so maybe 50% wheat and 50% short term ley?
 

Poorbuthappy

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Devon
I had a local friend ask me last week would I take his 250ac on (land only) and he keeps the yard for himself and how much would I pay. I sat down for a couple of hours and kept coming back to £0/ac for the rent because of the current input cost and fuel price issues, then he keeps the subsidy till it ends to ride out this current storm. Then after that we sit down and sort it out.
If I could grow 1st wheat all over it every year then it’s worth 0.5t/ac ‘rent’ I guess but I can’t and all other crops are crap 🤷🏻‍♂️. Can’t grow osr because it’s had so much the last 30 years and it’s not ‘root’ ground. Grass it down and it’s maybe worth £50/acre for sheep so maybe 50% wheat and 50% short term ley?
No dairy in your area paying good money for short term leys for silage?
Or even the dreaded digester?🤐
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
the question was, can we carry on farming, with input costs rocketing
there are many types of farms and farmers, with everything from high finance costs to zero.
The truth of the matter, is quite simple, if you are making profits now, without a rise in product price, that profit will take a serious hit, and pro rata down the line.

Now the gen public, are getting a hammering on energy prices, food inflation is on the rise, so from guv down, food prices will be held back, as far as possible. The drive for carbon neutrel, will, l expect, will slow down, especially if putin carries on, but if he stops tomorrow, Europe will need to source energy from elsewhere, in the short term, coal and oil.

So will product price rise enough to cover the rising input costs ? Eventually it will have to, because everyone has to eat, and farmers cannot function for long, without profits. Perhaps the question should be, how long will it take for prices, to rise, to cover our rising costs, and nobody can answer that.
 
Location
Devon
I had a local friend ask me last week would I take his 250ac on (land only) and he keeps the yard for himself and how much would I pay. I sat down for a couple of hours and kept coming back to £0/ac for the rent because of the current input cost and fuel price issues, then he keeps the subsidy till it ends to ride out this current storm. Then after that we sit down and sort it out.
If I could grow 1st wheat all over it every year then it’s worth 0.5t/ac ‘rent’ I guess but I can’t and all other crops are crap 🤷🏻‍♂️. Can’t grow osr because it’s had so much the last 30 years and it’s not ‘root’ ground. Grass it down and it’s maybe worth £50/acre for sheep so maybe 50% wheat and 50% short term ley?
Would you rent out an asset worth 10/15k an acre for nothing???

Reality is that at even 3 ton an acre of wheat across the lot you would be getting £690 acre in crop sales + the value of the straw!

You could do 30% oats as a break crop and 70% wheat x 2 years and if you said an average sale price of £200 ton across the lot at 3t acre that is £600 acre + the straw value and of course oats can be grown much cheaper than Wheat.
 

B R C

Member
Arable Farmer
If you are a smallish arable unit, to do all the work yourself these days you really need to be able to maintain/repair secondhand kit and also like doing it. I’m not some one who enjoys looking after kit that has seen its best days so shared machinery with neighbour for 5 years which worked ok, but I got a bit bored driving tractors and with another business(now sold) and plenty of building works to do I decided to have neighbours do the contracting so I can concentrate on creating as much passive income from buildings as possible, and also doing a fair bit of fabrication work, so much so now starting a separate company for it. So still busy but feel I’m in charge of everything rather than the farm in charge of me. I still look after grain store/ drying. In short plenty of different ways of going things but the main thing is you need to be prepared to change things, go in the direction that is best for you.
 

B R C

Member
Arable Farmer
Would you rent out an asset worth 10/15k an acre for nothing???

Reality is that at even 3 ton an acre of wheat across the lot you would be getting £690 acre in crop sales + the value of the straw!

You could do 30% oats as a break crop and 70% wheat x 2 years and if you said an average sale price of £200 ton across the lot at 3t acre that is £600 acre + the straw value and of course oats can be grown much cheaper than Wheat.
That’s what I’m doing, stewardship, wheat and oats, keep it simple.
 

jendan

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Northumberland
the question was, can we carry on farming, with input costs rocketing
there are many types of farms and farmers, with everything from high finance costs to zero.
The truth of the matter, is quite simple, if you are making profits now, without a rise in product price, that profit will take a serious hit, and pro rata down the line.

Now the gen public, are getting a hammering on energy prices, food inflation is on the rise, so from guv down, food prices will be held back, as far as possible. The drive for carbon neutrel, will, l expect, will slow down, especially if putin carries on, but if he stops tomorrow, Europe will need to source energy from elsewhere, in the short term, coal and oil.

So will product price rise enough to cover the rising input costs ? Eventually it will have to, because everyone has to eat, and farmers cannot function for long, without profits. Perhaps the question should be, how long will it take for prices, to rise, to cover our rising costs, and nobody can answer that.
Product or output prices are usually good in wars.Its afterwards when the sh!t hits the fan. Like in the 1920s,they quartered from what they were in 1919. I dont think thats ever going to happen again.More likely there will be a massive reset. Grains at or around £300/ton. £3000 top fat beast,and £300 top beltex fat lamb.....................Fert over £1000/ton or more,red diesel £2/litre.Electric 50p/unit. All average land at £20,000/acre...............................thats my crystal ball.
 
Location
southwest
I had a local friend ask me last week would I take his 250ac on (land only) and he keeps the yard for himself and how much would I pay. I sat down for a couple of hours and kept coming back to £0/ac for the rent because of the current input cost and fuel price issues, then he keeps the subsidy till it ends to ride out this current storm. Then after that we sit down and sort it out.
If I could grow 1st wheat all over it every year then it’s worth 0.5t/ac ‘rent’ I guess but I can’t and all other crops are crap 🤷🏻‍♂️. Can’t grow osr because it’s had so much the last 30 years and it’s not ‘root’ ground. Grass it down and it’s maybe worth £50/acre for sheep so maybe 50% wheat and 50% short term ley?

Would you have to buy any more kit or take on extra help (employed or contractor) to farm it?

If the answer to the above is "no" then you'd be a fool not to take it on and spread your fixed costs over more acres.
Unless you are already losing money on what you are farming, in which case, that is the problem you need to solve.
 

Beefsmith

Member
Would you rent out an asset worth 10/15k an acre for nothing???

Reality is that at even 3 ton an acre of wheat across the lot you would be getting £690 acre in crop sales + the value of the straw!

You could do 30% oats as a break crop and 70% wheat x 2 years and if you said an average sale price of £200 ton across the lot at 3t acre that is £600 acre + the straw value and of course oats can be grown much cheaper than Wheat.

I think your missing my point, which I may of not made clearly to be fair. If I crop it and let’s say it’s all wheat then I’m paying out £50,000 in fertiliser, £12,000 in farm saved seeds, £37,000 in chemicals. My in house stubble to stubble cost will be circa £25,000 plus the extra in fuel so let’s say all in £140,000 before I see any profit.

The problem with this is the risk factor isn’t it. Yes I could sell some wheat forward but have you seen the recent weather patterns were getting the last 10 years? What about another 2012 flooding or drought which halves yields?

What about a collapse in the world wheat price? You can bet any forward sold wheat contracts will somehow be wangled out of!

We are living in very uncertain times and dumping out an extra £140,000 isn’t for me so you might think I’m mad, but I’m playing it safe protecting what we’ve already got.
 
Location
Devon
I think your missing my point, which I may of not made clearly to be fair. If I crop it and let’s say it’s all wheat then I’m paying out £50,000 in fertiliser, £12,000 in farm saved seeds, £37,000 in chemicals. My in house stubble to stubble cost will be circa £25,000 plus the extra in fuel so let’s say all in £140,000 before I see any profit.

The problem with this is the risk factor isn’t it. Yes I could sell some wheat forward but have you seen the recent weather patterns were getting the last 10 years? What about another 2012 flooding or drought which halves yields?

What about a collapse in the world wheat price? You can bet any forward sold wheat contracts will somehow be wangled out of!

We are living in very uncertain times and dumping out an extra £140,000 isn’t for me so you might think I’m mad, but I’m playing it safe protecting what we’ve already got.
You should so what is right for you but there is plenty of people that will happily take that risk and put in £140k between now and next harvest to farm that land!
 
Only way is up they way they are planting ,
Only planting the best land as well
If you are a smallish arable unit, to do all the work yourself these days you really need to be able to maintain/repair secondhand kit and also like doing it. I’m not some one who enjoys looking after kit that has seen its best days so shared machinery with neighbour for 5 years which worked ok, but I got a bit bored driving tractors and with another business(now sold) and plenty of building works to do I decided to have neighbours do the contracting so I can concentrate on creating as much passive income from buildings as possible, and also doing a fair bit of fabrication work, so much so now starting a separate company for it. So still busy but feel I’m in charge of everything rather than the farm in charge of me. I still look after grain store/ drying. In short plenty of different ways of going things but the main thing is you need to be prepared to change things, go in the direction that is best for you.
 

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quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

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