Colin Pitchfork

[The Agrarian]

@Danllan The 5-10% failure rate is an interesting way to view it, but not necessarily the way I would. (Of course I wouldn't risk our lives on a bridge with such a predicted failure risk, unless of course the risk of staying on this side of it was higher).

Not all murderers are the same. They are all murderers, until you look into the case and the person (as the parole board would). Perhaps one such example of the diversity is Hazel Stewart. She was party to the murder of her husband and her lover's wife, as an accomplice to her lover. While she was found guilty, we can also accept that she was under the influence of a very cunning, manipulative and controlling man in Colin Howell, who took the lead in the crimes. The reason/justification for the murders was extremely specific, she probably was not the instigator, and it seems to me very unlikely given all that she has subsequently been through that she will end up murdering again. (Howell, I would be less sure). A violent serial rapist/killer - again, the degree of risk is different.

I don't think the bridge analogy is a good one. Comparing these people is comparing apples with oranges. Or oranges with raw pork perhaps. Both foods. Both will degrade over time if left on a kitchen worktop. Both have the potential to cause human tummy upset, or worse. While the risk is not zero for either, we know which one we would eat in five days time. That's not a perfect analogy either, because it requires a specific time frame in order to work.

 

[Danllan]

@Danllan The 5-10% failure rate is an interesting way to view it, but not necessarily the way I would. (Of course I wouldn't risk our lives on a bridge with such a predicted failure risk, unless of course the risk of staying on this side of it was higher).

Not all murderers are the same. They are all murderers, until you look into the case and the person (as the parole board would). Perhaps one such example of the diversity is Hazel Stewart. She was party to the murder of her husband and her lover's wife, as an accomplice to her lover. While she was found guilty, we can also accept that she was under the influence of a very cunning, manipulative and controlling man in Colin Howell, who took the lead in the crimes. The reason/justification for the murders was extremely specific, she probably was not the instigator, and it seems to me very unlikely given all that she has subsequently been through that she will end up murdering again. (Howell, I would be less sure). A violent serial rapist/killer - again, the degree of risk is different.

I don't think the bridge analogy is a good one. Comparing these people is comparing apples with oranges. Or oranges with raw pork perhaps. Both foods. Both will degrade over time if left on a kitchen worktop. Both have the potential to cause human tummy upset, or worse. While the risk is not zero for either, we know which one we would eat in five days time. That's not a perfect analogy either, because it requires a specific time frame in order to work.

Read my earlier posts in re the nature of murderers. I stand by - on - the bridge / plane analogy; empirical evidence means we know that a given percentage will kill again, human nature hasn't changed in a very long time.

 

[The Agrarian]

Mmm. We also know that a given percentage of the population will die each week. And while we won't name precisely who they will be this week, we could look at each death and describe how most of them fit into a risk profile - age, health status etc. It's not terribly random. Only a very small number truly surprise, for example in unexpected accidents.

 

[Pieces_of_Eight]

IMHO our CJ system should have access to a much wider range of punishments, including some of those not currently compatible with the concept of human rights.

e.g. time in the stocks for criminals without the means to pay fines and productive manual work for custodial guests (such as litter picking, ditch cleaning, road sweeping, snow clearing etc)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420013430082351104

Does BoJo read my posts on TFF?

 

[Ashtree]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420013430082351104

Does BoJo read my posts on TFF?

He would look well in such a jacket.

 

[Danllan]

He would look well in such a jacket.

And yourself?

In passing, I've a friend in the Guards - in Dublin - who thinks that sentencing in the ROI is often far too lenient, and I know several Irish Barristers who'd say the same. Most of my friends over there are moderately conservative, so rather unsurprisingly think likewise; but I've a couple who think that the ROI should look at the Scandinavian systems as a model to follow.

I've heard the same said about here, but I think that the societies in Scandinavia are so different from ours that an extrapolation can't made. What's your view?

 

[jendan]

And yourself?

In passing, I've a friend in the Guards - in Dublin - who thinks that sentencing in the ROI is often far too lenient, and I know several Irish Barristers who'd say the same. Most of my friends over there are moderately conservative, so rather unsurprisingly think likewise; but I've a couple who think that the ROI should look at the Scandinavian systems as a model to follow.

I've heard the same said about here, but I think that the societies in Scandinavia are so different from ours that an extrapolation can't made. What's your view?

Whats your view of this lorry driver and the video recording of his driving? Three and half years in prison and license back after 57 months? People like this should never be allowed behind a steering wheel for life,in my opinion.

 

[Pasty]

Whats your view of this lorry driver and the video recording of his driving? Three and half years in prison and license back after 57 months? People like this should never be allowed behind a steering wheel for life,in my opinion.

About 90% of the population should never be allowed behind a steering wheel.

 

[Pieces_of_Eight]

I've heard the same said about here, but I think that the societies in Scandinavia are so different from ours that an extrapolation can't made. What's your view?

I've been to Dubai and spent time in Norway. Both have low incidences of petty crime, littering, graffiti, antisocial behaviour etc etc (all the things many UK towns are infamous for) and also a very subtle Police presence.

Probably for very different reasons though. People living in Dubai know what happens to people who engage in that sort of activity, which creates a deterrent. In Scandinavia there seems to be a much more cooperative, almost ant-like culture, where the liberal natives behave themselves to avoid adverse impacts on the society as a whole. The UK probably sits halfway between these two extremes.

List of Fines and Penalties for Littering in the UAE | Dubai OFW

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It may be a complete coincidence, but alcohol is not freely available in either country, due to laws based on Islamic teachings in Dubai and extortionate prices in Norway.

Conversely, in the UK we have cheap alcohol, not much cooperative community cohesion, rampant antisocial behaviour/petty crime and not much deterrent from our CJ system.

 

[arcobob]

The police and judiciary have a huge range of powers but very seldom enforce them due to lack of time, manpower and cost. Littering is a prime example where prosecutions appear to be almost non existent. Respect for our environment, for other peoples and above all self respect is taught from childhood in the family home but sadly such environments seldom exist today. Single parents do not constitute a reliable family unit because they provide little scope for providing the type of responsible parental guidance required.

 

[Pieces_of_Eight]

The police and judiciary have a huge range of powers but very seldom enforce them due to lack of time, manpower and cost. Littering is a prime example where prosecutions appear to be almost non existent. Respect for our environment, for other peoples and above all self respect is taught from childhood in the family home but sadly such environments seldom exist today.

Prime example last weekend, two people walking down the beach at 09:00, with a dog each. Absolutely not giving two sh!ts about all the signs up saying £1000 fine for dogs on the beach between 1st May and the end of Sept.

It has even had a mention on the local TV news, but nobody to enforce it so it keeps happening.

The whole seafront walkway stinks of drugs too, but that's probably a whole other thread.

 

[Danllan]

Whats your view of this lorry driver and the video recording of his driving? Three and half years in prison and license back after 57 months? People like this should never be allowed behind a steering wheel for life,in my opinion.

I have not followed the case and so only know what is in the general media; that written, the sentence does seem rather lax to me, certainly it is nowhere near what could have been handed down. This sort of Judicial cock-up is part of what the appeal system is for.

 

[holwellcourtfarm]

I agree but would ask what scrutiny those who make these decisions are subject to and if they get it wrong and a child is raped an murdered upon freedom, what are the consequences for them? Nothing I suspect which is why I would be in favour of life being life.

@Danllan makes his point well that there are distinct "types" of murderer with clearly different risk profiles.

How about this? Perhaps parole boards should be monitored for the accuracy of their assessment as to offenders recidivism risk for these high impact crimes, grouped to reflect these risk profile types. Where a board member falls below an acceptable threshold of accuracy they should be removed (or retrained and offered a probationary period).

Perhaps we could reduce the recidivism rate for these heinous offenders then?

We MUST find a better way to manage the risk of the truly evil in our society. Current methods aren't working.

 

[Danllan]

...How about this? Perhaps parole boards should be monitored for the accuracy of their assessment as to offenders recidivism risk for these high impact crimes, grouped to reflect these risk profile types. Where a board member falls below an acceptable threshold of accuracy they should be removed (or retrained and offered a probationary period)...

Believe it or not, this already happens, and what we see is the result of 'new improved' board members, it seems that they can be recidivists too