Combinables Price Tracker

[Phil P]

certainly a lot of crops locally have really lost their edge this last few weeks

I really can’t see the word been awash with wheat could be interesting times come January onwards.

 

[Phil P]

Can’t even see the Ukraine been awash with wheat to be honest

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545250081523216384

 

[teslacoils]

Can’t even see the Ukraine been awash with wheat to be honest

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545250081523216384

Link doesnt work for me - no twitter.

 

[Slant78]

Any feed barley prices for NI? Or anywhere else

 

[CORK]

No surprise but talks with Russia on freeing up grain exports from Russia aren’t going well - https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia...h-ukraine-turkey-on-grain-exports-11657278324

While hurting Ukraine financially by holding the grain, Russia is also gaining from the increase in the value of the same grain. It’s win win for them.

 

[Fiveospades]

BBC news report that Ukrainian cereal fields are being burnt daily by Russian forces .Hundreds of Hcts.burnt . Farm machinery and grain handling infrastructure is being destroyed . Not new news by any means but at least it is finally being reported with some weight behind it. Terrible for the farmers concerned .

 

[yellow belly]

the problem for ukrainian exports is that with out shipping out of the black sea
the tonnage that can be exported is limited by logistics

unless they harvest less than domestic usage plus exportable maximum the effect on the market will be limited

a cease fire is the only real relief

 

[Chrisw]

a cease fire is the only real relief

And thats highly unlikely. Given the countries involved, it will only end when one of them wins, either russia takes ukraine, or russia take out putin and withdraw. Neither outcome is likely to happen in weeks or months

 

[Clive]

Has the market realised the wheat isn’t coming out of Ukraine??

it never was going to until the war is resolved - the tactic is clearly economic war with the west, Russia are in a far stronger position than Europe though this oil, gas and food siege

nothing has changed since we saw 350. - the last month or so was probably a big buying opportunity

 

[early riser]

nothing has changed since we saw 350. - the last month or so was probably a big buying opportunity

I suspect A LOT of dairy cake tonnage has been fixed in the last week or so for winter 22/23

 

[4course]

it never was going to until the war is resolved - the tactic is clearly economic war with the west, Russia are in a far stronger position than Europe though this oil, gas and food siege

nothing has changed since we saw 350. - the last month or so was probably a big buying opportunity

or a hold

 

[Homesy]

it never was going to until the war is resolved - the tactic is clearly economic war with the west, Russia are in a far stronger position than Europe though this oil, gas and food siege

nothing has changed since we saw 350. - the last month or so was probably a big buying opportunity

Not true. A lot has changed. I'm not trying to play the market down but around 50% of grains are feed to livestock. At £350/ tonne it is too expensive to be fed to livestock. Broiler sheds and pig fattening units are not getting filled. Beef and dairy farmers are cutting back and making more use of forage. It is fairly clear that there is a worldwide recession coming, people will cut back on more expensive foods. Other countries are finding a way around sanctions to buy Russian cereals. Most importantly, there is less uncertainty. Traders can see where supplies are going.

 

[Phil P]

BBC news report that Ukrainian cereal fields are being burnt daily by Russian forces .Hundreds of Hcts.burnt . Farm machinery and grain handling infrastructure is being destroyed . Not new news by any means but at least it is finally being reported with some weight behind it. Terrible for the farmers concerned .

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545611522646450176

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545919833669255168

 

[Devil's advocate]

Ukraine supporters could easily torch vast areas in Russia.

Sadly our side has to fight fair.

 

[yellow belly]

If a million acres is burnt it would be no more than 2 million tonnes lost on a Russian Ukraine octal harvest of 200 million tonnes of grains

1 million acres would be a big fire

2023 harvest will be affected more if the war does not stop by autumn
World fertiliser prices and Availability

fuel labour and machinery availability also big factors in Ukraine

 

[Fiveospades]

Uncertainty is the worst aspect of all this with only predictions on a daily basis.
Even if the invasion were to end tomorrow we are still in for a long period of adjustment and counter adjustment as the world tries to right itself again .
UK cereal prices have slipped back recently but I still think there will be windows for opportunist selling as events unfold. We must all do the right things for our individual businesses but it is not something to boast about or be entirely comfortable with as it is likely to be at the demise of Ukrainian businesses.
If only we could do more to help them.

 

[teslacoils]

Not true. A lot has changed. I'm not trying to play the market down but around 50% of grains are feed to livestock. At £350/ tonne it is too expensive to be fed to livestock. Broiler sheds and pig fattening units are not getting filled. Beef and dairy farmers are cutting back and making more use of forage. It is fairly clear that there is a worldwide recession coming, people will cut back on more expensive foods. Other countries are finding a way around sanctions to buy Russian cereals. Most importantly, there is less uncertainty. Traders can see where supplies are going.

While I've heard this said, I don't know *any* dairy or cattle farms reducing numbers. Heard a lot talking about hens and pigs, but again, exactly how many have decided to stop is unknown.

Reality is I paid £17 for 8 lamb chops yesterday that were tasty but barely a meal for the Mrs and I, and £6 for a pork shoulder that will do the four of us for two meals.

Paying more for meat is less of a domestic issue than more for heating.

 

[MrNoo]

Uncertainty is the worst aspect of all this with only predictions on a daily basis.
Even if the invasion were to end tomorrow we are still in for a long period of adjustment and counter adjustment as the world tries to right itself again .
UK cereal prices have slipped back recently but I still think there will be windows for opportunist selling as events unfold. We must all do the right things for our individual businesses but it is not something to boast about or be entirely comfortable with as it is likely to be at the demise of Ukrainian businesses.
If only we could do more to help them.

The market closed £17 up Friday, managed money is waiting in the wings to pile back in after shorting it all the way down.
Managed money doesn’t give a toss re costs to farmers for feed etc.
I think Monday will be interesting to see where the market goes, my thoughts are up.

 

[Bossfarmer]

While I've heard this said, I don't know *any* dairy or cattle farms reducing numbers. Heard a lot talking about hens and pigs, but again, exactly how many have decided to stop is unknown.

Reality is I paid £17 for 8 lamb chops yesterday that were tasty but barely a meal for the Mrs and I, and £6 for a pork shoulder that will do the four of us for two meals.

Paying more for meat is less of a domestic issue than more for heating.

with milk heading for over 50ppl i cant see dairy farmers cutting back on feed

 

[Fiveospades]

Harvests are happening around the world and as usual yields are variable . I agree that the money men only trade with gain in mind and the hope that tomorrow is an even better day for their bonuses.
I wonder how many are thinking long term if the next planting period sees reduced area because of input costs and my favourite word for today 'uncertainty '.