I suspect you are right, all my oats uplifted this week. only ten weeks out of contract!!
I did ask merchant on monday what the free buy price price was this week. Not sure he says, I will find out.
Still waiting!
Combinables Price Tracker
- Thread starter Jerry
- Start date
I suspect you are right, all my oats uplifted this week. only ten weeks out of contract!!
I did ask merchant on monday what the free buy price price was this week. Not sure he says, I will find out.
Still waiting!
Family sold the business in the 80's.
But the elder generation taught me the 'art of blending', which is where the real profit is made from malting barley. It certainly isn't Made by the grower.
I got fed up with the leg lifting claims in 2002, and haven't missed growing the fickle weed in the slightest.
But the elder generation taught me the 'art of blending', which is where the real profit is made from malting barley. It certainly isn't Made by the grower.
I got fed up with the leg lifting claims in 2002, and haven't missed growing the fickle weed in the slightest.
4course
Member
- Location
- north yorks
im
im waiting to fix old crop until after after the trigger ,but also by then reckon we may be in a shortage . As for next year may do a bit on a pool, but not keen to sell on a fixed price yet ,can remember some folks selling early then not having it and thats a hell of alot worse than missing out
Why? Low yield?
- Location
- Northumberland
I wonder what Torry would make of the grain trade today; it's come a long way from the days of the corn exchange (and the Hen and Chickens, or Queens Head afterwardsI hope you still charge them a royalty for the use of your letter
).
Grain Buyer
Member
- Location
- Omnipresent
I'd love to go back to those days! Sat on a high chair in the corn exchange, grovelling farmers trying to get me to buy their goods. Boozy lunch, night in a hostelry, then off to the next town, bloated fat, ruddy cheeked and rolling in cash.
BACK to those days ?
Yes, now you have skinny merchants, who cant afford boozy lunches, grovelling to farmers, who are rolling in cash, to get them to sell their grain.
Funny how the world turns.
- Location
- norfolk
My heart bleeds for you all, wonder why you bother.
At a farmers meeting hosted by one of the larger merchants yesterday, and their main trader was illustrating trends and projections in supply and demand...
The good news is that UK stocks are tight for 2017/ 2018, which points towards 'import parity' and strong prices going forward
The bad news is that world stocks are going up (albeit slightly) for the 4th year in a row and are at record levels, bearish trend
So UK prices are balanced on the fulcrum of exchange rates and international prices, but "new crop futures do look too cheap"
The good news is that UK stocks are tight for 2017/ 2018, which points towards 'import parity' and strong prices going forward
The bad news is that world stocks are going up (albeit slightly) for the 4th year in a row and are at record levels, bearish trend
So UK prices are balanced on the fulcrum of exchange rates and international prices, but "new crop futures do look too cheap"
is 150 ex available before harvest yet ? with 20 milling premium that would be a lot better than budget ?
@Grain Buyer ?
@Grain Buyer ?
At a farmers meeting hosted by one of the larger merchants yesterday, and their main trader was illustrating trends and projections in supply and demand...
The good news is that UK stocks are tight for 2017/ 2018, which points towards 'import parity' and strong prices going forward
The bad news is that world stocks are going up (albeit slightly) for the 4th year in a row and are at record levels, bearish trend
So UK prices are balanced on the fulcrum of exchange rates and international prices, but "new crop futures do look too cheap"
.............like they (or anyone) actually knows this
their guess is a good as yours is the truth
If you flipped a coin and guessed if it would be heads or tails, then you'd be right half the time without knowing anything about why.
If you could tilt that probability in your favour by learning which side was slightly heavier, you'd still get it wrong sometimes and the person who guessed would say you dont know anything, but over time you'd get an edge over the man who guessed.
Or put it this way, if you could lock into £100 now, or take the chance of £120 or £80 in 12 months time which would you chose? That is risk management. If you have a £90 bill then the risk of £80 means you'll go bust.
if they KNEW which way the market was going they would not be sat in a room telling you about it I promise
no one knows what the future holds
I was told today that £10 stake on a accumulator with Ladbrokes for Leicester city to win the FA cup, the UK to vote Brexit and trump to be USA president would have returned over £100million payout !
all those events are within the last 12 months - no one would have thought any of them possible really even the day before they happened !
Exactly... all im saying is by understanding and studying the fundamentals we try and give ourselves a small edge over the man who guesses. Nobody would have predicted those things, and if we had a big crop and would have been fighting a strong currency ex farm feed wheat would be £110 give or take. At that point all those people who had just gambled would be very quiet.
Trading is all about getting a slight edge and trading lots of times so over time the balance falls in your favour. Within there you'll have some big wins and big losses and lots of smaller ones.
- Location
- Darlington
As we found out this year. Just a shame they won't stand up and admit it's just a guess.
I reckon there might be a decent early harvest market for those who can get the stuff on wheels quickly.
plenty of this year left for those of us that didn't believe the harvest hype (and were lucky with currency !)
you don't need to know bugger all about (guessed) fundamentals to trade successfully, you just need to know what a trend looks like. Most successful traders do nothing more complicated than that