Combinables Price Tracker

[SilliamWhale]

Sold more feed barley forward today for £120 for Dec. I'm sure it'll go wrong and the old man will make his feelings known but that's a higher price than I've got all year this year until the last lot today going at £128.

 

[Grain Buyer]

I agree. Think barley is a sell.

 

[SilliamWhale]

I agree. Think barley is a sell.

Barley will always be wanted in this part of the world though. I can't see the differential with wheat being too high surely?

 

[Clive]

Barley will always be wanted in this part of the world though. I can't see the differential with wheat being too high surely?

something like 20% increase in area this year

I reckon it will trade way under wheat next year

 

[franklin]

Barley price gap too high.

but

Brexit-influenced cereal prices probably too high really.

A bit like my being happy with our feed base price for wheat, and getting a tiny milling premium vs securing that min £25 deal but selling the base at sub £100.

 

[Steevo]

Barley price gap too high.

but

Brexit-influenced cereal prices probably too high really.

A bit like my being happy with our feed base price for wheat, and getting a tiny milling premium vs securing that min £25 deal but selling the base at sub £100.

If the milling premium is too small though its better sold as feed so as not to risk ending up losing the premium and then a bit more on deductions.

 

[franklin]

A fair bit was. To be fair, the local feed market is red hot with Vivergo, so they are really pushing up the prices for feed here. Ex farm feed wheat sold yesterday, being moved Tuesday, and pay end of the month paid more than the March futures price. When we get a price for milling, the local feed price is often a good bit lower than that - our big feed takers should really be considered as premium homes.

 

[Grain Buyer]

Barley price gap too high.

not on new crop, currently only £15 discount to wheat hence why I think it's a sell. O/C is £30 difference in some parts of the country and still no buying interest. N/c plantings are forecast at 15%-20% up.

@SilliamWhale , barley will be wanted in your area, but I can send it from warks/Staffs/oxon for an extra £5 haul, so your local market is capped.

 

[tw15]

Then to throw a spanner in the barley market there is going to huge spring barley plantings this year and not all will be going to malting homes .
Market for feed barley well be oversupplied come next harvest.

 

[Iben]

N/c plantings are forecast at 15%-20% up.

What crops is it replacing? If half of that area was winter barley, then a lot less impact on the market?

 

[7610 super q]

Interesting. The number of times I've been told on here that whatever we do on this small island has no bearing on prices....... yet 20% up on UK plantings = K'in disaster.

 

[Grass And Grain]

If spring barley has replaced wheat (or winter barley), then there will probably be less grain overall produced in the UK.

 

[Flat 10]

What crops is it replacing? If half of that area was winter barley, then a lot less impact on the market?

I will bet it has replaced WW 90% of the time.

 

[crazy_bull]

I will bet it has replaced WW 90% of the time.

A fair bit down this way replacing failed OSR, but also a lot is replacing second wheats, especially north of here.

C B

 

[franklin]

On the above info, I did 2 loads of barley for November at £119ex.

 

[shakerator]

Sold more feed barley forward today for £120 for Dec. I'm sure it'll go wrong and the old man will make his feelings known but that's a higher price than I've got all year this year until the last lot today going at £128.

can you make money at that?

 

[SilliamWhale]

can you make money at that?

I think so. But i've got to keep it lean to do so.

ie farm saved seed, urea only, buy my chems from rotam, don't charge myself a "management" fee, no till etc.

 

[shakerator]

I think so. But i've got to keep it lean to do so.

ie farm saved seed, urea only, buy my chems from rotam, don't charge myself a "management" fee, no till etc.

is that with rent built in or without? you must explain these management fees to me

 

[SilliamWhale]

is that with rent built in or without? you must explain these management fees to me

No it doesnt include rent. Instead of paying rent the farm pays for two sets of household oil, electric, council tax etc bills for two houses instead of a token rent. But Im not one of those farmers who says Sfp should be put in a separate account and not farm income

 

[franklin]

can you make money at that?

If using straw / making small bales / in a high value part of the country, and / or low BG pressure / low cost base / historic high yields / value placed on early-cleared land, then yes can make money.