Combinables Price Tracker

[yellow belly]

selling 100 tonnes at £140 would be £4000 higher than £100 per tonne

fertiliser needed to grow 100 tonnes cost £1500 now and would be on £450 more if it went up 30%
for that to happen would need £ to fall 30 % more or oil to go up 30% or a combination an increase in oil or a falling £ would also increase the price of grain could just allocate a tonnage of grain to match the fertiliser cost ie 15 tonnes unpriced

if you have hedged grain and the £ rises fertiliser and other imputs would fall in cost

with us all looking at current weather in the uk and brexit negotiations we may be not considering other threats to our prosperity and the likely hood of a labour government diminishes as they get too extream for the average voter

brexit seems to be not as bad as the pundits and markets predict this leads me to the idea that the £ will recover to 1.3 to the euro in the medium term or even higher markets have a habit of over compensating

the physical market will not continue to be above futures unless the uk plants less crops
free import maize is more likely as if prices stay too high Gove will get the idea it is not a threat to the wheat price
this just needs a poorer quality harvest nearer to the average or below which increases the production of feed wheat and sucks in imported milling wheat

 

[yellow belly]

I thought I’d wondered on the depression tread. Farming is on the up up up. Not quite now. But it will be. That’s what I tell myself.

we need to consider all possibilities if there is import tax on maize and prices stay nearer current levels hedging at 140 plus does not lose anything
just protects the current levels

 

[yellow belly]

If I was a betting man I would say that cost of production will go up in the UK. Rent Labour machinery sprays and fert. A's I can't see any of them falling in value. Value of crop will stagnate.. bps will fall a bit at a time

if grain falls and bps falls then rents will come under pressure if every agent gets a rent review notice from all tenants they will not have any high priced comparables to compare with
short term fbts will come on the market with much lower tendered rents because the sensible tenant will wait 3 years for the land to come back on the market when the high prices tenant has gone bust or cannot get credit

 

[SilliamWhale]

selling 100 tonnes at £140 would be £4000 higher than £100 per tonne

fertiliser needed to grow 100 tonnes cost £1500 now and would be on £450 more if it went up 30%
for that to happen would need £ to fall 30 % more or oil to go up 30% or a combination an increase in oil or a falling £ would also increase the price of grain could just allocate a tonnage of grain to match the fertiliser cost ie 15 tonnes unpriced

if you have hedged grain and the £ rises fertiliser and other imputs would fall in cost

with us all looking at current weather in the uk and brexit negotiations we may be not considering other threats to our prosperity and the likely hood of a labour government diminishes as they get too extream for the average voter

brexit seems to be not as bad as the pundits and markets predict this leads me to the idea that the £ will recover to 1.3 to the euro in the medium term or even higher markets have a habit of over compensating

the physical market will not continue to be above futures unless the uk plants less crops
free import maize is more likely as if prices stay too high Gove will get the idea it is not a threat to the wheat price
this just needs a poorer quality harvest nearer to the average or below which increases the production of feed wheat and sucks in imported milling wheat

Pundits know very little. Brexit was never going to be a disaster. Brits like to shake the tree a bit but we're not stupid and we're not close minded. And more importantly we have a very good political system (and actually good politicians in my view) who know the importance of doing a good deal with enough room to er, express ourselves.

The pound will definitely strengthen, Britain is a good place to trade, we're good friends with the Yanks and the far east and to all intents and purposes Europe still. We are free of corruption and a "safe and trustworthy" country to do business and brexit has given Brits a bit more impetus to carve out business and forced the responsibility on our government to do it. So yes the pound will strengthen - we're not way off where we were in 2013/14 and the growth is pretty level

 

[goodevans]

sorry thats because im a poor writer and write as I speak( there again I may speak rubbish) but have found by posting on ff this last couple of years I am getting better . I appreciate your help thats the beauty of this place all of us can learn/improve something with the right attitude, one of these days I will learn how to put those smiley faces up !!

it seems strange to me that somebody else can edit/alter yours or my posts

 

[Renaultman]

it seems strange to me, I ain't superstitious but these things I've seen, that somebody else can edit/alter yours or my posts

Absolutely

 

[crazy_bull]

Absolutely Fabulous Darling

 

[Bossfarmer]

I could lock in a sale price for 3 years ahead but it would be a fair bit out of kilter with the physical market as of now plus a cost. I also havnt a clue what my inputs fert/fuel chem or the value of currency etc will cost next year or in some cases this never mind 2-3 years forward . In my time it has rarely paid to commit too far in front as the effects on cash flow management negate any perceived benefit I can well remember folks selling grain a few years ago and then finding they did not have it

how about selling half of each years expected tonnage for 3 years ahead?

 

[4course]

how about selling half of each years expected tonnage for 3 years ahead?

when you are my age selling to move in say may 2021 could be a problem for somebody. Though I hope im still selling in 2031 and beyond

 

[yellow belly]

I only have an edit butten for my posts or posts I quote

 

[Wilberforce]

Offered £150/ton ex farm for Feed Barley today. Small local mill really struggling to source barley. Pity we haven't got any!

 

[average farmer]

Bummer, my last load is going tomorrow @£130 x

 

[bobk]

Sold up monday , wheat £150 , barley £146 , I'm not greedy .

 

[Baling Hay]

Offered £150/ton ex farm for Feed Barley today. Small local mill really struggling to source barley. Pity we haven't got any!

I suspect once we get some better weather and cattle are turned out the old crop market could drop off pretty quick...

 

[Surgery]

I suspect once we get some better weather and cattle are turned out the old crop market could drop off pretty quick...

Doubt it , cattle feed will still be wanted regardless and it’s in short supply

 

[Baling Hay]

Doubt it , cattle feed will still be wanted regardless and it’s in short supply

Time will tell

 

[fudge]

Time will tell

You don't think the re opening of vivergo will support the feed market?

 

[Renaultman]

Time will tell

Thing is pigs and poultry are booming at the moment, I know mills that don't get busy till well after Christmas flat out from November., I still reckons imports will put a ceiling in the market but don't think it will drop much now

 

[Baling Hay]

You don't think the re opening of vivergo will support the feed market?

Maybe feed wheat but the barley demand is coming from the ruminant mills due to the late turnout. Sheep and cattle feed demand is through the roof due to the awful weather.

 

[Baling Hay]

Thing is pigs and poultry are booming at the moment, I know mills that don't get busy till well after Christmas flat out from November., I still reckons imports will put a ceiling in the market but don't think it will drop much now

Chicken and pigs use wheat much more than barley.