Combinables Price Tracker

[Renaultman]

I don't get it at the moment, plenty of folk really cross that they sold 5-10% of an average harvest at £140 and the market has gone up, they have 90% ish left to sell at more money.

Had the market dropped they would be in a worse position business wise.

I have spent most of this week explaining reasons why the market could continue to rise to clients, but their target prices have been reached and people are happy to lock tonnages in at better money than they achieved last few years.


C B

Got to agree, I start to sell to draw a mark in the sand, in the hopes that that will be my worst price. Some years it has been my best. The risk in a rising market is when and how much to sell? Then deciphering where the peak may be. I know COP is impossible until the grain is all in the shed but we all should have a rough idea of where we need to be and as long as we're above that surely it's all good?

 

[Renaultman]

Odd, merchants should be keen to buy most of the time, have you told the reps 'No bugger off' too many times and they have got bored.

C B

Probably

 

[Clive]

To be fair there are one or two that are interested in more than just the immediate deal. @crazy_bull will be pleased to know our gleadells bloke is one whose opinion is worth listening to.

Some are very much worth listening to

Others just have a boat etc to fill and will say anything to achieve that !

 

[Clive]

I find this attitude quite strange. Can you please explain why?

Only ever seems to happen on rising markets so to me it’s a good indicator of how bullish or bearish things are

 

[crazy_bull]

Only ever seems to happen on rising markets so to me it’s a good indicator of how bullish or bearish things are

More likely it is the reps hoping to catch you with a better price than you heard yesterday hoping you will sell some to them to help them reach their purchasing targets.

In a falling market no one wants to be ringing round bidding less than someone else the day before, that's not much fun being told I got bid more than that yesterday by so and so, despite you knowing your price being good for the day in hand.


C B

 

[Clive]

More likely it is the reps hoping to catch you with a better price than you heard yesterday hoping you will sell some to them to help them reach their purchasing targets.

In a falling market no one wants to be ringing round bidding less than someone else the day before, that's not much fun being told I got bid more than that yesterday by so and so, despite your price being good for the day in hand.


C B

Agree and not questioning motive just that over the years it does seem to always be a great indicator that things are moving up

Im a big believer in “the trend is your friend” mantra and it’s a strategy that has served me well. Predicting movements is futile, following trends and selling on turns is relatively easy !

 

[franklin]

I don't get it at the moment, plenty of folk really cross that they sold 5-10% of an average harvest at £140 and the market has gone up, they have 90% ish left to sell at more money.

Had the market dropped they would be in a worse position business wise.

I have spent most of this week explaining reasons why the market could continue to rise to clients, but their target prices have been reached and people are happy to lock tonnages in at better money than they achieved last few years.


C B

Well, I have 8 loads in the Gleadell OND pool, so hopefully they are selling it right to get me a nice price.

Where is the chart of fear & greed that shows how, on average, farmers are crap at selling grain. Obviously no-one ever admits to getting it all wrong.

If I check the rain gauge and have 8mm in by the end of the day I will sell some more.

 

[DrWazzock]

Its the parable of the workers in the vineyard. Always makes me smile to hear it when I think of my grain marketing strategy.

 

[wellingtonfarmer]

What's December18 January 19 wheat price?
I'm thinking of selling some excess and wheat for July and buying it back in December?

 

[crazy_bull]

What's December18 January 19 wheat price?
I'm thinking of selling some excess and wheat for July and buying it back in December?

Stab in the dark but would guess £160x farm

C B

 

[shakerator]

What's December18 January 19 wheat price?
I'm thinking of selling some excess and wheat for July and buying it back in December?

This is a very sensible risk management strategy taking advantage of the 2 year overlap in storage, for 2 different growing seasons...

 

[4course]

Stab in the dark but would guess £160x farm

C B

there is it seem a big difference in price across the country atm im thinking this gap will close around and immediately after harvest and then stretch again after xmas which could mean 160 is low dependent on location. however im bullish on price bearish on quantity and not just in the uk. Thats just todays thinking, reckon this year could well be a time to stay closely attuned to the goings on .

 

[Renaultman]

It's dropped back a quid, still probably good but I am going to ride on the wave of everyone else's confidence and hold a while longer.

 

[jed]

Local mill offered me £160 this afternoon for Jan 19 but don't think they were that keen on buying do a lot of business with them so always give me a price even if they think it's a falling trade.
May well sit on it at the moment.
All the barns seem to be pretty empty round this neck of the woods.

 

[fastfish]

Local mill offered me £160 this afternoon for Jan 19 but don't think they were that keen on buying do a lot of business with them so always give me a price even if they think it's a falling trade.
May well sit on it at the moment.
All the barns seem to be pretty empty round this neck of the woods.

Ex or del

 

[jed]

Ex

 

[John Slejpner]

From reading some american bits and pieces..
- rain in the 10 day forecast, especially desired for the north of centre productive states, is being walked back and replaced with hot and dry
- confidence in any weather forecast is not high as coming out of La Nina (or El Nino can never remember)...anyway weather predicting is trickier than usual
-ag traders tend to clear down their esp weather influenced commodity bets ahead of the long Memorial Day weekend (now)
-nonetheless the last run of forecasts may be main reason for ag commodities esp wheat rallying into close (up about 2% on the day)

A conversation between two northern state wheat growers, who also trade CBOT, this evening goes like this-
We got 6:40 a bushel now (some future month probably nov )
If the weather by tuesdays open has been wet or about to be wet the 6:40 will be moving back to 6;00 maybe quickly
If the weather/ forecast run is hot and dry the 6:40 will start a move very possibly to 8:00 plus (8;60 old high)
The damage being done to wheat in the field by weather that has already happened is already in the price (6:40)...but is the situation about to get a bit better, or worse??

Basically tuesdays open could make or break you depending what (if any) bet you dare to place.

 

[FarmerBruce]

What prices are people starting to sell some forward at? Good prices at the mo but with these rises I’m keeping hold for now

 

[MrNoo]

Sat tight here too

 

[John Slejpner]

Already started