Combinables Price Tracker

[Phil P]

Is that £180 ex farm or delivered?

Ex farm.

 

[crazy_bull]

USDA report mildly bearish wheat, but bearish Soya, could be a bit of a rocky start to the week.

C B

 

[chipchap]

Has wheat peaked out?

 

[John Slejpner]

Has wheat peaked out?

I think so, but i should declare selling as much as i dare inc a fair amount of nov 19 in the last 10 days.

I don't think there is any more bullish news short term.
USA corn provides the best chance of upside IMO. USDA just called it as it sees it (actually based on crop assessments around the first of the month) and is calling a big crop. BUT subsoil moisture is short, and weather is dry and hot. Many growers in best areas reckon they are losing topside yield now.
Also, historically, corn crops that grew very fast to tasselling on the back of warm wet weather, as this year, have had a habit of disappointing.

 

[D14]

Talking to friends in Australia they are expecting the worst harvest for many years due to drought although Australian wheat does not really affect our markets. Europe isn't great is it. We are 20% down on farm average yield and everybody else seems to mirror those thoughts so come the new year surely we could see £250/tonne?

 

[Fubar]

Talking to friends in Australia they are expecting the worst harvest for many years due to drought although Australian wheat does not really affect our markets. Europe isn't great is it. We are 20% down on farm average yield and everybody else seems to mirror those thoughts so come the new year surely we could see £250/tonne?

I think the maize crop across the atlantic is going to have a big influence one way or the other.

 

[D14]

I think the maize crop across the atlantic is going to have a big influence one way or the other.

Maize is only a wheat substitute for certain things though, so having a national shortage of 20% due to yields surely will mean prices keep creeping because those that can only use wheat have no choice?

 

[Brisel]

Maize is only a wheat substitute for certain things though, so having a national shortage of 20% due to yields surely will mean prices keep creeping because those that can only use wheat have no choice?

Where's this "national shortage?" If UK wheat is short it will be imported from abroad, like it is every year

£250/t is not 25% more than the £140s Nov 18 futures have been cruising along at for months until recently.

https://cereals.ahdb.org.uk/markets

 

[Rihards]

I must sell all what I have at the shed or big gays play game now with world stock numbers to make money on current falling for next wave after couple weeks thats the question

 

[chipchap]

Thought so.

 

[chipchap]

a drop on the futures like today will surely bring a lot of wheat to the marketplace?

 

[bobk]

a drop on the futures like today will surely bring a lot of wheat to the marketplace?

Not mine , we're importing at the mo .

 

[fudge]

There is a fair bit coming to the market to empty overflow stores round here.

 

[David.]

Who was it used to pop up on days like this to remind us all that bulls and bears make money and greedy pigs get eaten?

 

[chipchap]

Who was it used to pop up on days like this to remind us all that bulls and bears make money and greedy pigs get eaten?

Not me, but whoever it was had a point.
£200 april was too good to let it go by.

 

[yellow belly]

What to believe

USDA has posted a big maize crop
But the maize went to tassel stage quickly this has often lead to disappointing yields
Germany may become a net importer of wheat
Ukraine has a limit on exports especially milling wheat
France will be the only exporter of wheat in the Eu
Australia will have a small crop
Uk yields low by how much
20% gives the uk a 12 million tonne crop but most are saying the uk will have 13 to 13 .5 million tonnes
Early harvest so a longer marketing year to next harvest current supply will need to stretch for 2 more weeks unless next harvest is late or just as early as 2018
Good uk quality regarding hagburg and don zon levels so high usage of uk wheat in flour blends
Ethanol uses 1 plus million tonnes

The Losses on the futures are a reflection of the USA futures plus the big increase and profit taking

Bumpy ride for feed wheat is the only certainty

 

[crazy_bull]

What to believe

Early harvest so a longer marketing year to next harvest current supply will need to stretch for 2 more weeks unless next harvest is late or just as early as 2018

I agree with everything you have posted except perhaps this one, most mills are still using old crop stocks in the midlands, hence the huge discount from Sept to Aug, many stores are still to be filled with new crop as they are still being emptied of old.

Granted there will be regional variance but most mills planned for a mid Aug new crop supply like normal.

C B

 

[chipchap]

I agree with everything you have posted except perhaps this one, most mills are still using old crop stocks in the midlands, hence the huge discount from Sept to Aug, many stores are still to be filled with new crop as they are still being emptied of old.

Granted there will be regional variance but most mills planned for a mid Aug new crop supply like normal.

C B

Then of course there are the wealthy farmers who have 2 or 3 harvests in store until they can sell at £200+

 

[Hindsight]

I agree with everything you have posted except perhaps this one, most mills are still using old crop stocks in the midlands, hence the huge discount from Sept to Aug, many stores are still to be filled with new crop as they are still being emptied of old.

Granted there will be regional variance but most mills planned for a mid Aug new crop supply like normal.

C B

On the latter point care to comment on import of cargoes of wheat and maize bought some time ago to cover the expected late harvest?

 

[crazy_bull]

Then of course there are the wealthy farmers who have 2 or 3 harvests in store until they can sell at £200+

no doubt there are a few of those, bloody good luck to them I say!!

C B