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Discussion in 'Cropping' started by Jerry, Feb 14, 2013.
Has everyone started selling something from 18 harvest yet? Or some holding on for brexit?
Baled out in December rightly or wrongly apart from osr
Get them through a Masters drier and they'll fly through BW test
Waiting on wheat, everything else went a while ago at good prices ! But probably have got it wrong this year I suspect. I’ve had a decent run of being near the top the last few years which had to end eventually I guess
Not over yet though, some big events possible through the next few volitile months
I'm thinking no deal is odds on and then the pound will dive .
We're missing Vivergo.
I was at a Cofco seminar today, where the advice was flog it now. They were expecting further falls towards new crop values. They did get it right on their harvest pool to be fair, which averaged £174.20 for feed wheat. A lot higher than competitors .
I’ve always said it would be no deal
I hope it is, best chance for my lack of 18 wheat sales but I also believe no deal is the best outcome of brexit (longer term) and certainly better than a bad deal
Who knows ! I don’t see it falling much but I’m also not sure it will get back to previous highs
No deal currency is factored in mostly already I think
This time of year is always historically a bad time to sell though
Still sitting on my hands (and probably wrong !)
Selling oats at moment. Getting frustrated waiting for movement, but at £200/t trying not to complain too much.
Still waiting on high n barley. Might just hold it till harvest 2019 and grow some low N to blend it with and sell it. Germination still good at moment.
That's usually a sign to hold in my book .
Plenty of wheat in the world. Compounders haven’t used anywhere near the amount in rations this winter. An early spring and that ship will have sailed. Barley is looking a bad job too, as it largely got replaced by grain maize and there was no big push on exporting it . What’s it worth now, about £175, which isn’t the end of the world is it. Certainly better than the £150 for next November .
I think there will be a deal of sorts, so a stronger pound is more likely . If it moves from £1.14 to say £1.30, that’ll knock a tenner off.
It’s all a gamble though !
All very feasible , but what if we have another dry summer ? we haven't got the moisture reserves this year
I still have doubts over official Uk 2018 harvest tonnage
Me too , might give Ed Hartley a bell and see what's left , not exactly bursting last september .
My gut says sell new crop, if you get a decent price, and hold old. I think, even without Ensus and Vivergo, stocks will be short and without the big buyers the attraction of picking the phone up and ordering a boat won't be there. As ever this is just a peasant farmer's hunch with no basis on research or intelligence.
Sold my last few loads of ww for march at 172. But should average high 180s overall so happy enough and I get my shed back. Osr sold well in August for 350ish happy again sold feed barley for 168 in December. Now a pile of high n malting barley been offered 155 for Feb.. going to hold. Barley must be short?
Plenty of wheat but who holds it?never known china sell any.If you take the stock that China is holding things look very tight
Be careful of reading too much into BPS data. My form stated 5% more wheat than I actually planted because most fields have environmental features not worth notifying separately. The wheat code is the predominant crop but not all of it. I'm not saying that everyone else is the same, but I can't be the only one declaring the whole field as wheat yet haven't sown the entire area.
That’s certainly interesting
I also doubt 2018 average yields were as big as official figures. Very few farmers were talking about big yields at harvest and there were plenty of horror stories around what the dry grain fill period had done to wheat yields
Yes some areas had ok / normal yields but plenty would be below average and very few above to make up for that
No way in my eyes averages were as good as 2017
If areas were lower and yield were lower and Brexit dropped currency further I could be claiming utter genius in a few months time !!!
But unfortunately I’m more likely just be being hopeful and just read it wrong this year :-(