Combinables Price Tracker

Hindsight

Member
Location
Lincolnshire
That’s certainly interesting

I also doubt 2018 average yields were as big as official figures. Very few farmers were talking about big yields at harvest and there were plenty of horror stories around what the dry grain fill period had done to wheat yields

Yes some areas had ok / normal yields but plenty would be below average and very few above to make up for that

No way in my eyes averages were as good as 2017

If areas were lower and yield were lower and Brexit dropped currency further I could be claiming utter genius in a few months time !!!

But unfortunately I’m more likely just be being hopeful and just read it wrong this year :-(
Thought that link might cheer you up a tad! Only time will tell and hindsight! In meantime best of luck.
 

Brisel

Member
Location
Dorset
Don't forget that for the moment, we're still a very small part of a very big global market with Chicago leading the prices. LIFFE is the same except for currency fluctuations. I've sold most of my 2018 harvest on the back of a weak £, not knowing which way the currency will go on deal or no deal. It has been at values I've turned a profit on. The size of the 2018 harvest will only make a small difference to the price if we are no longer part of that global market. Even then, the tariff is only €17/t. Good luck with your long position.
 

Clive

Staff Member
Location
Lichfield
Don’t fall for the global market hype

Lower yield Uk years always seem to be better priced to me

It’s a factor of course but there is a local effect - stuff doesnt move around the world for free, And then there is currency ......... and brexit
 

Brisel

Member
Location
Dorset
Don’t fall for the global market hype

Lower yield Uk years always seem to be better priced to me

It’s a factor of course but there is a local effect - stuff doesnt move around the world for free, And then there is currency ......... and brexit
The difference between import parity & export parity is around £10/t. Yes, you'll get a wider spread when ocean freight rates are higher but it costs the same per tonne to get a 50,000t boat across the Atlantic in 4 days as it does to get a 29t artic 4 hours up the road. My malting barley is currently going 4 hours to Norfolk to be malted then another few hours to the brewery. If it was low enough in N it would be heading up to Scotland for whisky. The east/west spread is over £10/t i.e a West country feed mill has to pay at least £10/t more than one in Cambs. That's why there aren't many registered LIFFE futures stores in the west.

Where is the 2mmt of wheat no longer required by the ethanol plants going? That's 12% of the UK harvest demand gone. It's starting to look like it didn't exist in the first place. Interesting times. (y)
 

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