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Discussion in 'Cropping' started by Jerry, Feb 14, 2013.
7th August 2018
I think that's what £174 LIFFE / £170 ex nov 19 might have been for.
That's a damn good price ex farm considering the futures are £148
Been told by 3 merchants I should take some cover at £140 Nov 19 feed wheat.
The merchant did say it was. Just doesn’t feel like it after the good prices we sold this years harvest for. Although I did sell a bit last year in the £140s, which looked pants when it was £196
Maybe that is a good reason to hold off?
I only tend to use one anyway.
I have said this before but if my text says 'might be a good opportunity to sell' I get a cold shiver.
Just have a habit of not liking what I’ve been told to do. And when the trade is ganging up when it’s not in the shed yet. I’ll wait until it is. Wrong or right.
Of course it’s luck if you top the market
Yes Ok, at a superficial level.
But it is not luck to cultivate a relationship with a trader such that he rings you as A) the price spikes and (B) he is in the middle of buying the most wheat per phone call / hour ever in his career, and he knows what this means, and he knows that YOU know what this means...
(quodos to a grain trader poster on here who knows who he is)
There is no such thing as luck !!
Luck = preparation + opportunity
There speaks the arrogance of youth.
I’m talking hitting the very top. Not having a very good high average.
When a commodity fluctuates so quickly it is luck.
Back in 2011 or 12, we sold over 70%of our wheat late for £228. We were offed 225, in the morning the day before the sale. Told the grain trader I would ring him back in the afternoon. Luckily something went wrong and didn’t manage to ring him back.
The next day it was up £3. Their wasn’t any skill involved getting that extra £3. Just luck.
To analyse any market you need to know volume being traded, as well as price.
Very few farmers have a real good measure of volume.
@David. ? Youth? How old do you think he is?
About 10yrs younger than me, but not yet ready to acknowledge that all important third ingredient to success. Luck.
Clive wasn't talking about success, he was talking about luck. The third ingredient of making your own luck is hard work.
However, in the context of this thread and hitting the top of the market, you cannot control the price no matter how hard you work nor how prepared you are, beyond knowing your costs, understanding how the market works and being ready to commit a planned tonnage into a very good price opportunity.
"Lucky sales" will only be defined at the end of the marketing campaign. When you consider that the stocks of wheat held by the major exporters are abnormally low and at these levels would otherwise trigger more price volatility, it is only the fact that the Chinese are holding the other half of the world's wheat stocks that means globally, we have an abnormally high total stock level that means the price is low and falling. It is only the weak £ that is keeping us off the floor of the world market. If anyone knows what the Chinese will do with these [intervention]stocks, it would drive the price one way or another. I doubt they will be dumping them on the export market anytime soon but it will keep their imports down for a while.
Don't forget that the Chinese hold over half the world's maize stocks too, have held them for years and are deteriorating in store to the point that bioethanol is the only viable end use for them. There's a new player in town. To think that years ago the production and stocks held by the big 5 exporters would determine the price; USA, Canada, EU, Australia & Argentina. Now you can add Russia & Ukraine to that list, and the Chinese hold all the aces in the pack by keeping such big stocks internally.
I always found the harder you work the luckier you get.
Really? ive a neighbour that works 18 hours a day, would do all year, only thing hard works doing to him is putting him in a hole in the ground earlier.
I agree, but hard work isn't everything. You need the other factors too.