Combinables Price Tracker

[lloyd]

I just trade CFDs.

My spring barleys on a £20/over Nov wheat futures contract for malting low N. 50% wheat futures based:50% spot.

Did some at £176, last year which will be £196 at harvest if it meets spec. Only 5 loads unfortunately.

How low in N?

 

[Chae1]

How low in N?

Below 1.6N

 

[lloyd]

Below 1.6N

I would struggle to get below those levels here.
Good job you know how to grow barley in your area

 

[Chae1]

I would struggle to get below those levels here.
Good job you know how to grow barley in your area

Didn't last year with dry weather it yielded around 1.5t/acre N levels between 1.9 and 2 so didn't take take it.

Luckily i only fixed ten loads and managed to fulfil contracts off better land at home.

Light land normally suits low N barley.

 

[lloyd]

Had rain here last 24hrs thank goodness.
Just don't want it at harvest time.

 

[nelson]

Had rain here last 24hrs thank goodness.
Just don't want it at harvest time.

not so lucky this end of the county

 

[lloyd]

not so lucky this end of the county

Pity

 

[PSQ]

Tonights USDA Corn Progress Report:
2014-18 average planted corn area: 90%
Markets expected planted corn area: 63%
USDA survey of planted acreage: 58%
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2219.txt

Guess the markets expected something along these lines: May 2020 wheat up £4.05 today

 

[Farma Parma]

Tonights USDA Corn Progress Report:
2014-18 average planted corn area: 90%
Markets expected planted corn area: 63%
USDA survey of planted acreage: 58%
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2219.txt

Guess the markets expected something along these lines: May 2020 wheat up £4.05 today

Very interesting
This puts the state of things over there into perspective mind

 

[Jerry]

Hold...

 

[Farma Parma]

The Question is how much of that unsown land will ever see a crop this year?
some of the videos ive seen its a real mess that could take several years to put right

 

[Brisel]

The window for maize drilling is still open. There's plenty of time to sow soya instead.

 

[lloyd]

What happens weather wise in the next 7 days
Will decide if alot of PP is taken up by the yanks.

Some farmers are already talking about shortfalls
regarding forward sales and buying grains to
meet their contracts.

 

[Farma Parma]

What happens weather wise in the next 7 days
Will decide if alot of PP is taken up by the yanks.

Some farmers are already talking about shortfalls
regarding forward sales and buying grains to
meet their contracts.

anyone have any idea how much tonnage in bins was lost due to flooding then?

 

[Roger Perry]

Actually, in most cases there will be more money made this year than ever ............claim preventive planting.......no costs growing/harvesting etc plus a double dose of $$$ out of Washington..........farmers will be good.

 

[Clive]

Illinois was very wet 6 weeks ago when I was there, travelled on one freeway for miles and miles with land flooded as far as the eye could see

It’s seems all it’s done since then is rain ?

 

[John Slejpner]

So the US weather forecasts of a week ago came true, again, and more of the same for another week predicted (almost - less rain but still "wet")

Planting progress of 58% as noted above, but the real devil is in the detail.
If the market is to panic it will be because of this :
Kentucky N Carolina Tennessee...within a spit of normal planting progress circa 90% done...C Carolina at least one agtalker cant get drill to penetrate rock hard ground...these states caught dry heat from blocking high centred over Florida...yield half to two thirds per acre of the heavy hitter states and way fewer acres anyway...so ignore them. Bit players in the grand scheme of things.

Nebraska - 81% done only 13% behind normal...big production state...special mention because Neb was the state "devastated" by "biblical flooding" when the snow melted too fast back in april. Lesson to take forward... losing loads of road and bridge infrastructure, ponded fields etc DOES NOT matter when there is 6 weeks to fix the mess. Sandy soils help

Iowa- "only" 20% behind schedule at 76% done..alternates with Illinois as top corn producer ...also top yield/acre

So that's the good news.


Illinois - 35% done 60% behind schedule OH CRAP. Central and north Illinois is just as good corn ground as Iowa

Indiana / Ohio both 22% done 60 odd % behind schedule OH CRAP ...

S Dakota 25% done 65% behind schedule OH CRAP...huge corn and bean production here
and so on..

This crop planting report, if it was wheat in the UK, is like saying : Total 60% planted ...2 weeks to go maybe
Cornwall, Devon and Pembrokeshire are 90% done, but could use a rain
The Borders and Northumberland are 70% done, but sodden
Lincs is 80% done, but sodden

Leicestershire, all of East Anglia, Kent are 25% done, with water running out the fields, and a rubbish forecast. And its cold.

USA has carried 2.2 BILLION bushels of corn into this season, which is starting to look like a masterstroke of forward planning.


All that said, the US situation is the ONLY bull story in the market, and there are a load of bear stories.

Sold a bit of Nov 20 this am.

 

[John Slejpner]

Corn closed in US (CBOT) $4.37 Dec 19, so has blown thru previous resistance at 4.24. Next hurdle is 4.55 odd (apparently)

 

[Brisel]

I was offered £150 ex farm Dorset Nov 2020. I only didn't book some because I already have 10% of 2020 wheat sold at that, booked a while ago.

 

[shakerator]

We are in for a big rally

Mirror of 2012....EU dry , US wet