Combinables Price Tracker

Sonoftheheir

Member
Location
West Suffolk
Been quoted £142 full spec milling
Wheat (£125 base, £17 premium) for September movement. Doesn’t sound enough to me? we have a few loads contracted on max/min that’s not priced as yet.

Is there any hope of prices going up again in the short term? Or is it a gradual drift lower?
 

Honest john

Member
Location
Fenland
Been quoted £142 full spec milling
Wheat (£125 base, £17 premium) for September movement. Doesn’t sound enough to me? we have a few loads contracted on max/min that’s not priced as yet.

Is there any hope of prices going up again in the short term? Or is it a gradual drift lower?
ATM the traders are talking the job down, big yields not enough shed space & the likes. ( Are they out gleaning )

But In the real world yields are nothing special, a lot of heads & Grain has been lost.
In the north it’s a wet sodden laid mess. A lot of the nations Wheat is still out getting beaten up by the storms.

At home we are finished but at a cost of drying about 1,400 ton. Yields guesstimate 8.5 t/ha. Range 7- 10.

Trouble with yield meter on last few fields & high moistures. So it’s hard to be sure.

Hats of to the big yielders but it’s very moderate for most folks.

Praying for the weather to pick up.
 
Been quoted £142 full spec milling
Wheat (£125 base, £17 premium) for September movement. Doesn’t sound enough to me? we have a few loads contracted on max/min that’s not priced as yet.

Is there any hope of prices going up again in the short term? Or is it a gradual drift lower?
Not quite enough to me either.
LIFFE nov is £137...i should have thought that puts you at £130 ish ex farm nov. £5 to carry sept to nov seems steep, but in reality probably so much wheat looking for a home now / next week that sept as a whole is compromised.
Can you hold it a month or 3?
 
ATM the traders are talking the job down, big yields not enough shed space & the likes. ( Are they out gleaning )

But In the real world yields are nothing special, a lot of heads & Grain has been lost.
In the north it’s a wet sodden laid mess. A lot of the nations Wheat is still out getting beaten up by the storms.

At home we are finished but at a cost of drying about 1,400 ton. Yields guesstimate 8.5 t/ha. Range 7- 10.

Trouble with yield meter on last few fields & high moistures. So it’s hard to be sure.

Hats of to the big yielders but it’s very moderate for most folks.

Praying for the weather to pick up.
Well done for getting finished. Still a third to do here. Feed wheats, majority Kerrin, which is shedding alarmingly. (300kg/ha i would guess on an exposed bit i cut last night)
 

Hampton

Member
Location
Shropshire
Been quoted £142 full spec milling
Wheat (£125 base, £17 premium) for September movement. Doesn’t sound enough to me? we have a few loads contracted on max/min that’s not priced as yet.

Is there any hope of prices going up again in the short term? Or is it a gradual drift lower?
Has it dropped that much? Was quoted £157 spot for group one on Monday afternoon
 
Is there any hope of prices going up again in the short term? Or is it a gradual drift lower?
Gradual drift lower until either an early frost in US heavily knocks corn potential, or January when US gets a handle on how much corn it actually has, or does not have.
USDA says it will have enough, and are usually right. But there are grounds this year to take their figures with a pinch of salt. When the USDA does get it wrong, which is rare, it is when assessing a visually decent but late crop. This years crop is VERY late and looks better than anyone dared hope, because there has been no dry spell to stress underdeveloped roots. No dry spell also means cooler than ideal in some areas. Late gets later.

Meantime £120 dec , by december, would not surprise me.
 

Renaultman

Member
Location
Darlington
Around here it’s about £120. Not much if any August fixings though
Gradual drift lower until either an early frost in US heavily knocks corn potential, or January when US gets a handle on how much corn it actually has, or does not have.
USDA says it will have enough, and are usually right. But there are grounds this year to take their figures with a pinch of salt. When the USDA does get it wrong, which is rare, it is when assessing a visually decent but late crop. This years crop is VERY late and looks better than anyone dared hope, because there has been no dry spell to stress underdeveloped roots. No dry spell also means cooler than ideal in some areas. Late gets later.

Meantime £120 dec , by december, would not surprise me.
I have enough cover to get me through to the new year, I have sat on grain till May when my gut has said it will go up even though the merchants haven't had any faith. My gut this year is only telling me I want my tea :(
 

Sonoftheheir

Member
Location
West Suffolk
Has it dropped that much? Was quoted £157 spot for group one on Monday afternoon
In a normal year we always seem to be £10 a ton less than the rest of the country here in East Anglia. Even though 9/10 our wheat only goes as far as Wellingborough.

The Nov future has dropped by at least a £5 since last Friday too.
 

Sonoftheheir

Member
Location
West Suffolk
Gradual drift lower until either an early frost in US heavily knocks corn potential, or January when US gets a handle on how much corn it actually has, or does not have.
USDA says it will have enough, and are usually right. But there are grounds this year to take their figures with a pinch of salt. When the USDA does get it wrong, which is rare, it is when assessing a visually decent but late crop. This years crop is VERY late and looks better than anyone dared hope, because there has been no dry spell to stress underdeveloped roots. No dry spell also means cooler than ideal in some areas. Late gets later.

Meantime £120 dec , by december, would not surprise me.
That doesn’t sound good.

Our main concern is potatoes so wheat has to fit around that. Sometimes the stores need to be clear in time for spuds. Also as there generally is only Dad and myself here, we don’t want to be loading wheat while potato harvesting too.

We used to store till July, but that was when we didn’t grow as much and all of it was stored in bins. Problems arose from Rodents and other nasties. So for the past 10 years or so we have been clear of wheat sep/Oct time. In general I don’t think we’ve missed out too much on higher prices either.

What with the winter barley too, prices really are poor atm, and certainly not showing much profit.

Think I will see what early next wk brings and make a decision.
 

Sonoftheheir

Member
Location
West Suffolk
ATM the traders are talking the job down, big yields not enough shed space & the likes. ( Are they out gleaning )

But In the real world yields are nothing special, a lot of heads & Grain has been lost.
In the north it’s a wet sodden laid mess. A lot of the nations Wheat is still out getting beaten up by the storms.

At home we are finished but at a cost of drying about 1,400 ton. Yields guesstimate 8.5 t/ha. Range 7- 10.

Trouble with yield meter on last few fields & high moistures. So it’s hard to be sure.

Hats of to the big yielders but it’s very moderate for most folks.

Praying for the weather to pick up.
I’d say yields are not as good as last year here.

Do you keep your wheat John?
 
Gradual drift lower until either an early frost in US heavily knocks corn potential, or January when US gets a handle on how much corn it actually has, or does not have.
USDA says it will have enough, and are usually right. But there are grounds this year to take their figures with a pinch of salt. When the USDA does get it wrong, which is rare, it is when assessing a visually decent but late crop. This years crop is VERY late and looks better than anyone dared hope, because there has been no dry spell to stress underdeveloped roots. No dry spell also means cooler than ideal in some areas. Late gets later.

Meantime £120 dec , by december, would not surprise me.
They didn’t plant a lot due to flooding.
 
They didn’t plant a lot due to flooding.
Yes but it was overwhelmingly beans that gave up acres. Corn in the ground has ended up within a spit of last years acreage...on USDA figures.
FSA figures (another gov agency but concerned with crop insurance etc ) possibly indicate a lot more prevent plant than USDA are estimating.

Problem is, until Jan when actual production is clarified, the market is trading USDA numbers. Never-mind the obvious inconsistencies such as proportion of good excellent corn being slightly reduced at the same time that total yield estimate is increased.

Anyway my guess is between Brexit, too much feed grade wheat here, USDA optimism(??) etc we drift lower into late autumn, when we stand some good chance of a US led fillip depending on their harvest reality. I am defensive / pessimistic by nature / necessity when it comes to grain marketing, so that,s my bias. Not that anyone should be paying any attention to my particular opinion anyway.
 

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