November 2021 has just reached £170, and it's been moving steadily upwards for a while.
November 2020 is up something like £4.60 since yesterday morning.
Combinables Price Tracker
- Thread starter Jerry
- Start date
November 2021 has just reached £170, and it's been moving steadily upwards for a while.
November 2020 is up something like £4.60 since yesterday morning.
- Location
- Darlington
Because as had already been said I don't think the acreage will be in and if is the yields probably won't be there. I do think however £170 would be a good starting point.
- Location
- Darlington
Bossfarmer
Member
- Location
- between Perth and Inverness
is Russia having problems? im told its all about russia and ukraine these days?
lloyd
Member
- Location
- Herefordshire
Who told you that? Putin!
The world is far bigger than Russia and Ukraine! This is from a contact of mine in the trade;
Politics
A weaker pound versus the euro has helped to lift UK wheat so far this week.
US wheat futures have been supported by the anticipation of 'phase one' of the new trade agreement between the US and China which is due to be signed tomorrow (15th Jan). Markets have been excited by this news anticipating that china could come on for US wheat imports and create a demand spike. However, the reality is that China imports between 3 and 4 million mt annually, and it is likely that at least a million of this is already covered from French origin. It is also worth noting that according to Fridays USDA report China's year end wheat stocks are estimated at more than 147 million mt, over half the world's total wheat stocks. With African Swine Flu decimating pig numbers in China, a big glut of buying may not be realised.
Weather
UK wheat values for 2020 are close to contract highs again after more rain stopped any field work that might have been on the cards last week. The AHDB 'Early Bird' Survey anticipated that the UK will produce a 13.040 million mt wheat crop, however, for many, fields remain waterlogged and the likely size of the 2020 wheat crop is still far from certain with guesses ranging down to the 10 million mt marker. UK wheat prices will be capped at £3/4 pounds above import values, any more than that and consumers will turn towards imported wheat or even imported maize in some rations.
Elsewhere, parts on Europe and the Ukraine are very dry. Northern Hemisphere weather will start to become increasingly important now and dryness in the US Plains is on the radar, especially as Fridays USDA confirmed a new low in the US wheat area.
Supply and Demand
Fridays USDA report didn’t make any big changes to world S&D but its worth remembering that this year has shown new record highs in global wheat stocks and production.
• 2019 global wheat production was marginally reduced from 765.41 million tonnes to 764.39 million tonnes. Reductions came from Russia and Australia but increases from Europe eclipsed most of the losses.
• Global consumption was up 50’000mt to 753.76mmt.
• Global wheat stocks came in at 288.08mmt, slightly reduced slightly from the Dec report. 147 million tonnes of these stocks (over 50%!) sit in China.
French Ports are very busy with wheat exports which has pushed Paris futures to highs not seen since last June, this adds another layer of support to our neighbouring UK market which often uses Paris MATIF wheat futures a trading hedge.
Several UK animal feed and flour mills have bought more cover end of last week/ early this week and this is the last piece of the jigsaw that has pushed London wheat futures to two month highs on old crop positions
John Slejpner
Member
- Location
- Brick clay near Bedford
Yes and yes.
I find it interesting but unsurprising that the trade commentaries (like the one Brisel quotes) are not reporting much about it.
It is very very dry.
lloyd
Member
- Location
- Herefordshire
Wasde released figures that end carryout for world corn stocks
have been reduced 54mmt from 16/17 to 19/20.
That's a big drop so probably why USA corn price is on the rise.
Not so easy to replace wheat with cheap maize.
There is no bargain corn in the world at the moment but
watch the OSR price closely as it is normally influenced
by the soyabean price.
China have recently been committing to Brazilian soya where
they are expecting a record harvest so the price going forward
could be volatile.
have been reduced 54mmt from 16/17 to 19/20.
That's a big drop so probably why USA corn price is on the rise.
Not so easy to replace wheat with cheap maize.
There is no bargain corn in the world at the moment but
watch the OSR price closely as it is normally influenced
by the soyabean price.
China have recently been committing to Brazilian soya where
they are expecting a record harvest so the price going forward
could be volatile.
It's winter. The Russian & US wheat crops will die from frost several times before spring, as usual. Not enough harvesting going on in the world for the commentators to get their teeth into, just winter kill stories.
marshbarn
Member
- Location
- shropshire
Looks like theUSDA finally woke up
Bossfarmer
Member
- Location
- between Perth and Inverness
When will we know if this dry weather is impacting russian wheat yields?
At harvest?
After they've sold all their stock
John Slejpner
Member
- Location
- Brick clay near Bedford
Something i read late last autumn suggested WW plantings were way down because of the dry. I remember thinking how ironic been as we were way down cos of the wet. But we were still planting and they were timed out.
Mr Charisma
Member
- Location
- stratford on Avon
What price full spec milling wheat spot
- Location
- Buckinghamshire
Was quoted £162 Jan £164 Feb yesterday
Hindsight
Member
- Location
- Lincolnshire
My mistake - May '21, but that makes for a big drop to the Nov 21 price.
Today is the day that the Chinese hopefully sign the 'phase 1' trade deal with the US...
farmerm
Member
- Location
- Shropshire
I was offered just £9 less that that for feed yesterday...