Combinables Price Tracker

Clive

Staff Member
BASE UK Member
Location
Lichfield
I’ve only sold a couple loads of 2019 recently just to cover fert costs.

the next 6 months could be interesting from a marketing perspective.

nothing sold for H10 and only 10 loads sold for H19 so far (may - 195 high protein milling ) I really can't see it going down form that now
 

Brisel

Member
BASE UK Member
Location
Dorset
if you could carry over wheat would you?
Logistically, no. I'd sooner have the store empty & I don't have much spare space anyway. There's a reasonable price spread between old crop and new crop so I can see the attraction of carrying stock forward if your cashflow can stand it.

Personally, I'd buy a paper (futures) grain position instead of holding physical wheat if that was the gamble I wanted to take. Look up the word "contango" if you want to research how to take such a market stance on paper. @Steakeater can explain how this works against you better than I can.

 

Renaultman

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Darlington
I've got a bit sold at £150 harvest 2020, did it when 19 prices were collapsing. I will probably save 19 crop to cover that, unless there is a panic and it hits silly money I suppose.
 

Brisel

Member
BASE UK Member
Location
Dorset
nothing sold for H20 and only 10 loads sold for H19 so far (may - 195 high protein milling ) I really can't see it going down form that now
I corrected the typo for you. You were a long holder last year when you believed the same thing would happen. How did that pan out? Unusually, the early sellers got the better prices then.

I'm not having a go, just asking. In the olden days of Intervention and import tariffs, the long holder was always better off.

1582022628155.png

Source https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds/futures-prices

Most recent AHDB report https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-17-february-2020
 

Farmer Fin

Member
Location
Aberdeenshire
Is this why nov futures have jumped this morning?

The meetings I was at last week were suggesting there was still massive surplus in France to export and east Europe is looking good for this harvest.

So what is stop the buyers importing feed wheat to the UK rather than paying a premium for UK wheat? Is this not what happened a few years ago when it his £200. Compounders just bought in loads of maize instead and the wheat price dropped like a stone.
 

Renaultman

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Darlington
Is this why nov futures have jumped this morning?

The meetings I was at last week were suggesting there was still massive surplus in France to export and east Europe is looking good for this harvest.

So what is stop the buyers importing feed wheat to the UK rather than paying a premium for UK wheat? Is this not what happened a few years ago when it his £200. Compounders just bought in loads of maize instead and the wheat price dropped like a stone.
I think as it creeps up towards that magical £200 this will happen, in the same way that when it creeps down consumers alter their rations or ratios to use more.
 

JCfarmer

Member
Location
warks
Is this why nov futures have jumped this morning?

The meetings I was at last week were suggesting there was still massive surplus in France to export and east Europe is looking good for this harvest.

So what is stop the buyers importing feed wheat to the UK rather than paying a premium for UK wheat? Is this not what happened a few years ago when it his £200. Compounders just bought in loads of maize instead and the wheat price dropped like a stone.
I got excited then! I suppose a £1 is better than nothing.
 

Clive

Staff Member
BASE UK Member
Location
Lichfield
I corrected the typo for you. You were a long holder last year when you believed the same thing would happen. How did that pan out? Unusually, the early sellers got the better prices then.

I'm not having a go, just asking. In the olden days of Intervention and import tariffs, the long holder was always better off.

View attachment 859126
Source https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds/futures-prices

Most recent AHDB report https://ahdb.org.uk/news/market-report-17-february-2020

Last year was the first in several I have got it very wrong - I blame all the Brexit stuff for confusing currency and markets completely, I just couldn't get my head around it all, That said we still ended up at the top of the OSR prices and an average wheat price so wasn't a complete disaster, still beat most pools I seen report!
 
Last edited:

Chae1

Member
Location
Aberdeenshire
Is this why nov futures have jumped this morning?

The meetings I was at last week were suggesting there was still massive surplus in France to export and east Europe is looking good for this harvest.

So what is stop the buyers importing feed wheat to the UK rather than paying a premium for UK wheat? Is this not what happened a few years ago when it his £200. Compounders just bought in loads of maize instead and the wheat price dropped like a stone.
Who were hosting these meetings?
 

Brisel

Member
BASE UK Member
Location
Dorset
@Clive is being modest , we sold at £188 for gp 1 milling and £210 for Montana e-wheat with some small deductions for protein so I thought we had done pretty well.
Your average wheat price achieved being what? We all make good sales & bad ones. It's the overall average I worry about, especially when comparing to pools. :whistle:

£158.04 net of all claims, levies and premiums for 2018 harvest wheat. Heavily forward sold pre harvest. Half low grade milling, half feed only.
 

Clive

Staff Member
BASE UK Member
Location
Lichfield
Your average wheat price achieved being what? We all make good sales & bad ones. It's the overall average I worry about, especially when comparing to pools. :whistle:

£158.04 net of all claims, levies and premiums for 2018 harvest wheat. Heavily forward sold pre harvest. Half low grade milling, half feed only.
the average would be between that 188 and 210 not worked it out tbh, Nothing went for lower. But it was about 15-20 of the top iirc. Trying to read markets though Brexit has been like trying to knit spaghetti
 
Last edited:

teslacoils

Member
Location
Lincolnshire
I've averaged £145ex this year. But 4.4t/AC at moistures between 11 and 13 percent. It has been a profitable year, which it needs to be given the investment. Again, 8 loads in the pool dragged it down, so it's curtains for pools after many years. Given combines rolled with nil wheat sales it hasn't turned out too bad. And only one claim for the year (low bushel). And no drying costs.
 

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