Local feed wheat market starting to trade above futures. 1st bid was £1 above ‘front month’ for ex farm, 2nd bid at £6 above / £209 ex October.
OSR was quoted at £533 on Tuesday, higher haulage costs to the crush from up here though.
If the rumours of a threatened Russian export limit come to pass (in addition to the existing $53.50 export tax) it might just shift the market into overdrive.
News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
"For wheat, the state claims an onerous 70 per cent of anything exported above $200 per tonne, taking away the bulk of the upside of higher international grain prices for Russian growers. Farmers could lose 15-30 per cent of their income due to the tax, which could total more than $4bn in the 2021-22 crop season. Even Argentina, which has been taxing its farmers heavily for decades, has substantially lower export taxes. The export tariff comes at a time when farmers’ costs are rising sharply due to price increases in inputs such as fertilisers. The impact of the margin declines is already being felt. We expect the country’s wheat harvest to fall 12 per cent, or 10m tonnes, from a year before despite record-high plantings. Unfavourable weather has undoubtedly affected output, but cost cutting by some farmers has also contributed to lower crop yields. We could see a decline in wheat acreage, and the input reductions suggest smaller yields and bigger risks of crop failures in adverse weather. It’s a grave situation for Russian farmers and some of their traditional buyers such as Egypt. It will also mean more profits for Russian competitors, with EU producers and neighbouring Ukraine probably being the biggest beneficiaries. It took decades for Russia to become a wheat superpower; becoming a second-tier player will require way less time."
Are defra on the money with 14 million tonnes for wheat production
have they noticed the lower specific weights that grain is where as the trade generally predicted a higher uk crop number
if farmers measured their yields based on average year specific weights and trailer loads or a yield moniter based on volume then the crop will be near to defras estimate
wheat will be very short next summer if defra are right