Combinables Price Tracker

[Honest john]

To be honest it’s way to early to say much more than we are in uncharted water.

harvest could be 6 too 12 million ton.

For sure no price starting with a 1 would tempt a sale.

 

[Clive]

To be honest it’s way to early to say much more than we are in uncharted water.

harvest could be 6 too 12 million ton.

For sure no price starting with a 1 would tempt a sale.

no way it could be 12 million, don’t think it’s too early to say that much

 

[John Slejpner]

A question for people who watch this data / know where to find it. @yellowbelly perhaps.

For the harvest 20 season If one worked on the assumptions :-
a) US or other corn was way cheaper than homegrown wheat
b) there is no significant tariff on its import ( ie rules relaxed to help animal feed dependent sectors / consumer prices )

What is the minimum UK wheat requirement?

 

[Hindsight]

http://link.ahdb.org.uk/m/1/45178595/p1-b20052-d760bd8ce41c4948a29b8f14b7fbbae7/2/764/b8a709ab-405c-4f8c-ab91-50a20d8675cb

AHDB 2020 production forecast published yesterday.

 

[B'o'B]

http://link.ahdb.org.uk/m/1/45178595/p1-b20052-d760bd8ce41c4948a29b8f14b7fbbae7/2/764/b8a709ab-405c-4f8c-ab91-50a20d8675cb

AHDB 2020 production forecast published yesterday.

They are having a laugh as far as I can see. Worse case scenario 9 million tonnes, mid range 10.7 and best 12.6!!! I would say their mid range prediction would be a very best case scenario.

 

[yellow belly]

Uk consumes about 14 million tonnes of wheat in a normal year
so with sub 12 million tonnes even with 1 million tonnes extra barley a million or so Cary over extra the prices for the next 18 months will be set by import parity
so any thing less than 12 million has little effect on the average uk price

but and it is a big but there are some consumers that cannot use maize or any more barley

there will be a big short in the Midlands
south coast quality wheat could still go on a boat
there aren’t enough lorries to cart all the spare southern wheat to the north midlands

the other issue is thin uneven crops give poor hagburg and specific weight and variable protein quality

lock the store up till October

 

[jimcooke770]

I've just spoken to my Polish friend who says its very dry at home and his neighbour thinks its not worth planting any spring crops ........

 

[Brisel]

.

I've just spoken to my Polish friend who says its very dry at home and his neighbour thinks its not worth planting any spring crops ........

He's 'avin' a giraffe!

When would they normally consider planting spring crops?

 

[jimcooke770]

.


He's 'avin' a giraffe!

When would they normally consider planting spring crops?

no idea , just reporting what I was told yesterday

 

[Rihards]

Crops here looks great if it helps You all

 

[Flat 10]

Is import parity going to be any good is the 64000 dollar question? Will grain follow the stock market down with the corona virus panic? Personally I think it’s a panic and will bounce back but supposing it isn’t? I know not everyone is going to die but it might stop us seeing £200?

 

[Brisel]

We're a very long way from £200 wheat. Massive stocks, Lots of cheaper maize. 6-8 million tonnes less from our poor harvest isn't going to make it £200 unless the £ falls out of bed seriously. I'm still bullish to wheat & new crop's a hold IMO, just not that much.

 

[Renaultman]

We're a very long way from £200 wheat. Massive stocks, Lots of cheaper maize. 6-8 million tonnes less from our poor harvest isn't going to make it £200 unless the £ falls out of bed seriously. I'm still bullish to wheat & new crop's a hold IMO, just not that much.

Snap I think £170 £180 is a good starting point and those waiting for £200 may have to wait a long time unless, as you say, the pound collapses

 

[D14]

Group 1 will be £200 by Feb 2021. We are keeping harvest 19’s crop till then as we’ve nothing planted virtually for harvest 20 and won’t be paying silly money for spring seeds.

 

[yellow belly]

for higher prices there needs to be a yield problem with a big producers crop
usa, Russia /Ukraine/kasakstan, china, india,brazil /argentina or the eu
we also need a dry august so we get good quality

 

[Sheeponfire]

Group 1 will be £200 by Feb 2021. We are keeping harvest 19’s crop till then as we’ve nothing planted virtually for harvest 20 and won’t be paying silly money for spring seeds.

You have deeper pockets than I...

Hats off to you sir...

I aspire to be in that position one day!!

 

[Chae1]

Wheat Future's still sliding on back of Coronavirus. I'm going to buy again when May20 hits £145.

 

[Brisel]

Wheat Future's still sliding on back of Coronavirus. I'm going to buy again when May20 hits £145.

Were you short?

 

[Chae1]

Were you short?

No. Just hoping to make some money if/when it rises again when they see your survey results!

Question is where's the bottom!?

 

[principal skinner]

Group 1 will be £200 by Feb 2021. We are keeping harvest 19’s crop till then as we’ve nothing planted virtually for harvest 20 and won’t be paying silly money for spring seeds.

Why so confident of £200/t for feb ‘21?