- Location
- Darlington
Or the CanadiansYoure right , leave it the French !!!!
Combinables Price Tracker
- Thread starter Jerry
- Start date
4course
Member
- Location
- north yorks
Its just timing ,the tricky bit is when to take the plunge
- Location
- Cambridgeshire
Hi there, I personally have followed these guys (www.odaconnect.co.uk) market views and they seem to be pretty good at explaining markets and predicting price changes. A friend of mine has subscribed to their service, they seem to be good enough. I will participate to one of they market seminar next week on World & UK prices. I think you can still register on: https://odaconnect.co.uk/evenement/how-world-and-uk-markets-influence-your-farm-gate-wheat-prices/
ODA Connect - The independent grain marketing consultancy for Farmers
ODA International captures and analyses global as well as local market information. Work with ODA to improve your grain sales performance and limit your risks.
odaconnect.co.uk
down n'dirty
Member
- Location
- South Wales
They told a friend of mine who subscribes that wheat would not go any higher than £180-this was before xmas-due to imports coming in.
Don't forget that until the EU Deal was done, we were looking at a big tariff wall on trade, offset by a drop in the value if the £. Even the best don't get it right all the time.
I did a 2 day ODA training course a few years ago in how to read markets, charts, futures, options etc. What they really wanted was to get us to sign up for the newsletters and their complex grain selling strategies where you end up buying, selling and hedging your grain several times a year. I have a couple of friends who made a lot of money with them having been advised to buy options on sales before the big Russian drought of 2010 sent prices rocketing. None of them are still using ODA as in a flat market the trades just eat into the margins.
To be fair they were trying to do the right thing & @CRM AgriCommodities can help with your strategies, even if the right advice is sometimes to do nothing.
- Location
- Cambridgeshire
I agree that in flat markets, the advice is less valuable. But it looks like ODA has made the right move this time. They advised their clients to sell part of the UK wheat to hedge the BREXIT risk and re-exposed the volumes on CBOT corn 3 months ago!! They made very large profits. I consider it as a smart move as it took into account the domestic price risk (stronger £, import tariffs) and transferred the exposure on the world prices that they were considering bullish. I think I will give it a try as apparently the owner has changed and strategies are much more simple to follow... I keep you informed as I have registered to their next free of charge market seminar on Jan 26th...
- Location
- Lincolnshire
I know that feeling.im still 100% unsold for last years wheat....
Sadly it’s a small pile!!
yellow belly
Member
- Location
- south west lincolnshire
any merchant who sold grain with out having it will not be here at harvest
last time we saw 200 plus with in 3 harvests it was under 110
when it is this volatile watch from the side
3 years time who knows
strong £ big yields every where
or continued bad harvests droughts in the norther hemisphere
or somwhere in between
not selling any till moved what i have sold and can see crops growing
- Location
- Cambridgeshire
The current price increase is due to the Russian situation with exports seen falling from 5Mt preXmas to 1 or 2Mt now that the export tax is in place. BUT the Russian stocks are still there and the next EU crop could be much bigger than this one. So indeed I will price some volumes soon...
fieldfarmer
Member
But how big are these Russian stocks, the export tax would not be so big if they didn't have concerns over what is needed in there own country.!
- Location
- Lincolnshire
Bread and circuses, chaps. Bread and circuses.
That's not the only reason for the export tax. Rising domestic prices is the main driver in an economy with an inflation problem. The quickest way to keep them down is to restrict exports. Argentina also use this tool as well. Whether Russia will actually run out of grain is another matter entirely.
- Location
- Lincolnshire
- Location
- Cambridgeshire
As a matter of interest I found out how the new crop Russian export tax will work:
1 government sets a threshold export price in rubles
2 individual contract price ($) is converted into rubles
3 everything above is taxed at 50%
i.e: If the threshold is 15,000 rub/mt and contract price is $300 $300->22 200 rub/mt (USDRUB = 74) 22 000 – 15 000 = 7 200 rub 0.5 X 7 200 = 3 600 rub/mt Tax is 3 600 rub /mt ( $48.6)
In fact this can be considered as not so bullish for this crop as Russian farmers will lose the incentive to store into new crop!!
1 government sets a threshold export price in rubles
2 individual contract price ($) is converted into rubles
3 everything above is taxed at 50%
i.e: If the threshold is 15,000 rub/mt and contract price is $300 $300->22 200 rub/mt (USDRUB = 74) 22 000 – 15 000 = 7 200 rub 0.5 X 7 200 = 3 600 rub/mt Tax is 3 600 rub /mt ( $48.6)
In fact this can be considered as not so bullish for this crop as Russian farmers will lose the incentive to store into new crop!!
fieldfarmer
Member
So for the hard of thinking, ie "me" this tax has as much or more to do about currency control than wheat shortage?
More keeping a lid on food prices and the population fed cheaply, hence my approval of @teslacoils pithy comment. This wheat will have to come to market eventually - the annual threat of the export tax makes Russia a heavy seller early in the season to raise hard currency and avoid any restrictions. It distorts the global markets but here we are.
- Location
- Lincolnshire
A lot of perception politics. Russians like strong, decisive leaders. Threat of tarrifs is not exactly new is it for Russia.