A Trebor
Member
- Location
- Isle of Axholme
Feed Barley collection next week £173
Combinables Price Tracker
- Thread starter Jerry
- Start date
gone
Member
- Location
- Carlow Ireland
Is this upside down week???
Sensible conservative farmers pushing for even more tax and spend socialist government.
Wow
Sensible conservative farmers pushing for even more tax and spend socialist government.
Wow
Farmerdunk
Member
- Location
- Hertfordshire
Milling wheat sold yesterday, collected yesterday £ 206
i like tax that creates opportunities for my business
gone
Member
- Location
- Carlow Ireland
But this tax and spend Socialism has failed in every country it was tried in.
much as i dislike paying tax the anarchy of the “every man for himself ” alternative is not particularly attractive
DeeGee
Member
- Location
- North East Wales
Today is both the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report day, and @AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds latest UK ‘harvest report’.
The big question: will the USDA point out that Russian wheat has had 8 consecutive weeks of price rises and Canada has downgraded spring crop estimates yet again, or will they just repeat the usual droll line of ‘slightly lower yields offset by increased acreage’ to kick the bulls in the nads?
Markets up or down £10 today, where’s your money?
The big question: will the USDA point out that Russian wheat has had 8 consecutive weeks of price rises and Canada has downgraded spring crop estimates yet again, or will they just repeat the usual droll line of ‘slightly lower yields offset by increased acreage’ to kick the bulls in the nads?
Markets up or down £10 today, where’s your money?
- Location
- Cirencester
It'll be down, always an element of "insider" knowledge and the market price pretty much always goes up or down a day or two before the news. Just something I have noticed
- Location
- Lincolnshire
If USDA keeps its figures the same, you know that yields are down. If they say it's up, that means it's the same.
We are relying on stock figures from China; us figures from a repeatedly overstating agency; and yield figures from countries where food prices and import tariffs are politically sensitive.
Expect the Russians to export like mad until the ice freezes as usually, then slap on a tarrif. Expect USDA to be 10 percent too high. Expect Chinese stock and usage to be a collaboration of guesses from those who face "re education" for not meeting quotas.
We are relying on stock figures from China; us figures from a repeatedly overstating agency; and yield figures from countries where food prices and import tariffs are politically sensitive.
Expect the Russians to export like mad until the ice freezes as usually, then slap on a tarrif. Expect USDA to be 10 percent too high. Expect Chinese stock and usage to be a collaboration of guesses from those who face "re education" for not meeting quotas.
Grain export tariffs are already in place, and are to rise again next week (cant find the figure, behind a paywall). This is last weeks Reuters press release, announcing this weeks tariff increase from $39.40 to $46.50/t
You'd have thought this would have been front page news in the FW, alongside reports coming out of the Volga region of wheat yields collapsing to 0.45t/Ha due to drought...MOSCOW, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose for the eighth consecutive week last week due to higher export tax, high domestic demand, lower 2021 crop output and a stronger rouble RU/RUB, analysts said on Monday.
Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports for supply in late September was $299.50 a tonne, free on board (FOB), at the end of last week, up $0.50 from the previous week, the IKAR agriculture consultancy said in a note. 0#IKAR
Sovecon, another consultancy, pegged wheat prices up by $3 to $301 per tonne, their highest in seven years. Barley fell by $2 to $260 per tonne.
Sovecon cut its forecast for Russia's 2021 wheat production by 800,000 tonnes to 75.4 million tonnes because of low spring wheat yields last week.
Russia's wheat export tax, which Moscow sets on a weekly basis, will rise to $46.50 a tonne for Sept. 8-14, from $39.40 a week earlier. The price index on which the tax is based remains lower than the actual FOB price.
"The index remains a big unpredictable variable for the prices ... It is impossible to calculate the future tax precisely at this stage," Sovecon said.
Weather conditions remain good for sowing winter grains for the 2022 crop in Russia's south but it is too dry in the Volga region, Sovecon said. Volga could decrease its winter grains area this autumn, it said
SilliamWhale
Member
Nitrogen next year is going to cost circa £25-30 ton of cereals. Not many of us will farm for long at a loss with a price crash
- Location
- Lincolnshire
The Russian export tax is an annual comedy as they try to ship stuff before it starts, and before they can't get it out due to port issues. Slap tax on what that can't be shipped anyway. Then leave the stuff full of weevils for the domestic peasants. Who wants to buy russian wheat in may? I'm sure it's storage will meet red tractor specs....
This afternoons USDA WASDE report:
WHEAT: The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stocks. Supplies are reduced as imports are lowered 10 million bushels to 135 million on the import pace. Food use is raised 2 million bushels to 964 million, reflecting an upward revision of 2020/21 food use. Exports are unchanged at 875 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are reduced 12 million bushels to 615 million and are 27 percent below last year and the lowest in eight years. The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $6.60 on reported NASS prices to date and price expectations for the remainder of 2021/22.
The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for increased supplies, higher consumption, more trade, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected rising by 7.1 million tons to 1,072.8 million, on the combination of larger beginning stocks for Canada, EU, and India and higher production for Australia, India, and China. Australia’s production is raised 1.5 million tons to 31.5 million on continued widespread favorable conditions to date. This would be Australia’s third largest wheat crop on record. India’s production is increased 1.5 million tons to 109.5 million on the government’s 4th Advance Estimate and this would be India’s fifth consecutive record crop. China’s production is increased 900,000 tons to 136.9 million, mainly on a higher area estimated by the National Bureau of Statistics. Partially offsetting these increases, Canadian production is lowered 1.0 million tons to 23.0 million, based on the Statistics Canada forecast issued August 30, and Argentina is reduced 500,000 tons to 20.0 million on dry conditions.
Projected 2021/22 world consumption is raised 3.0 million tons to 789.6 million. Most of the higher consumption is for feed and residual use, led by China, increasing by 1.0 million tons to 36.0 million. Projected 2021/22 global trade is raised 1.5 million tons to 199.7 million as higher exports by Australia and India more than offset reduced exports for Canada. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are increased 4.2 million tons to 283.2 million with India, EU, and Canada accounting for most of the increase, although global stocks remain below last year.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stocks. Supplies are reduced as imports are lowered 10 million bushels to 135 million on the import pace. Food use is raised 2 million bushels to 964 million, reflecting an upward revision of 2020/21 food use. Exports are unchanged at 875 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are reduced 12 million bushels to 615 million and are 27 percent below last year and the lowest in eight years. The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $6.60 on reported NASS prices to date and price expectations for the remainder of 2021/22.
The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for increased supplies, higher consumption, more trade, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected rising by 7.1 million tons to 1,072.8 million, on the combination of larger beginning stocks for Canada, EU, and India and higher production for Australia, India, and China. Australia’s production is raised 1.5 million tons to 31.5 million on continued widespread favorable conditions to date. This would be Australia’s third largest wheat crop on record. India’s production is increased 1.5 million tons to 109.5 million on the government’s 4th Advance Estimate and this would be India’s fifth consecutive record crop. China’s production is increased 900,000 tons to 136.9 million, mainly on a higher area estimated by the National Bureau of Statistics. Partially offsetting these increases, Canadian production is lowered 1.0 million tons to 23.0 million, based on the Statistics Canada forecast issued August 30, and Argentina is reduced 500,000 tons to 20.0 million on dry conditions.
Projected 2021/22 world consumption is raised 3.0 million tons to 789.6 million. Most of the higher consumption is for feed and residual use, led by China, increasing by 1.0 million tons to 36.0 million. Projected 2021/22 global trade is raised 1.5 million tons to 199.7 million as higher exports by Australia and India more than offset reduced exports for Canada. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are increased 4.2 million tons to 283.2 million with India, EU, and Canada accounting for most of the increase, although global stocks remain below last year.