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<blockquote data-quote="Hampton" data-source="post: 4761328" data-attributes="member: 6937"><p>Ive been thinking about this thread a lot over the last couple of days, particularly after I watched a very good film called The Big Short.</p><p>Basically it's the story about the US credit crisis of 2008 and how it crashed the Economy. It's told from the angle of a couple of hedge funds who worked out what was going on and shorted against it. One of these hedge funds, even though they were right, went bust as the investors lost confidence in the boss and the crash didn't happen quickly enough.</p><p>My point is that only a very small proportion of the brightest minds in the World realised what was going to happen, and even on of those did not benefit from it.</p><p>If you apply that to the grain trade, the traders are told info by the managers and the managers get second/third hand information from their sources depending on how much they pay for their research. Most of these people although decent at their jobs are not superstar wiz kids otherwise they would be in different jobs.</p><p>What hope have we got of ever getting it right?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Hampton, post: 4761328, member: 6937"] Ive been thinking about this thread a lot over the last couple of days, particularly after I watched a very good film called The Big Short. Basically it's the story about the US credit crisis of 2008 and how it crashed the Economy. It's told from the angle of a couple of hedge funds who worked out what was going on and shorted against it. One of these hedge funds, even though they were right, went bust as the investors lost confidence in the boss and the crash didn't happen quickly enough. My point is that only a very small proportion of the brightest minds in the World realised what was going to happen, and even on of those did not benefit from it. If you apply that to the grain trade, the traders are told info by the managers and the managers get second/third hand information from their sources depending on how much they pay for their research. Most of these people although decent at their jobs are not superstar wiz kids otherwise they would be in different jobs. What hope have we got of ever getting it right? [/QUOTE]
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