Combine and tractor replacement policy

[B'o'B]

Nonsense, if ever I heard it.

If you think ELMS is going to deliver as much as you suggest, then you totally misunderstand it's aims.

That all depends how it interacts with the various trade deals we need to get signed.

As @warksfarmer points out the £ is historically relatively weak right now, if it climbs much it could easily take £25-35/t off current wheat prices. Move to a net exporter and you're looking at another £15/t off the price, although ELMS and CS should reduce the chances of that going forward. Add a run off good world harvests into the mix and it could easily look very different quite soon. Or not. Maybe.

 

[Renaultman]

That all depends how it interacts with the various trade deals we need to get signed.

As @warksfarmer points out the £ is historically relatively weak right now, if it climbs much it could easily take £25-35/t off current wheat prices. Move to a net exporter and you're looking at another £15/t off the price, although ELMS and CS should reduce the chances of that going forward. Add a run off good world harvests into the mix and it could easily look very different quite soon. Or not. Maybe.

Sad but can't argue with any of it.

 

[Lincsman]

Following the doe auction the last couple of days and hardly any tractors and combines seem to have sold according to the auction site.

A sign of the times that stuffs to expensive when large numbers don’t sell at auctions.

Prices will come down if need be, but while some tractors are being sold at up to £200K, combines/ other harvesters £500K they wont see much of a problem yet.

 

[bankrupt]

they wont see much of a problem yet.

Luckily, cheap money's here to stay - or is it?

In October 1974 our local Ford dealer invited us to join his frenzied order book with 18-24 months estimated lead time and full RRP due at date of delivery sometime in 1976.

By October 1975 interest rates had risen by 7%, his yard was full of new tractors and, soon after, he went out of business.


"Seemingly everyone, from the IMF to the OECD, recommends that national governments and their central banks keep their foot flat down on the fiscal and monetary accelerator.

They should be careful what they wish for . . . . . nothing is certain in economics, but central banks may find themselves forced to tighten rather sooner than they anticipate."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/02/02/beware-inflationary-threats-creeping-us-unawares/

 

[Bossfarmer]

Fert is climbing off the back of wheat prices, and you can be sure the pound will strengthen so I would say upgrade anything that's essential this year to save the tax and then get ready for the long haul, the only way is down for wheat prices and farmers will soon realise the importance of subs when they get a run of low price years again and weather affecting yields, we are all farming in factories with no roofs

 

[redsloe]

Luckily, cheap money's here to stay - or is it?

In October 1974 our local Ford dealer invited us to join his frenzied order book with 18-24 months estimated lead time and full RRP due at date of delivery sometime in 1976.

By October 1975 interest rates had risen by 7%, his yard was full of new tractors and, soon after, he went out of business.


"Seemingly everyone, from the IMF to the OECD, recommends that national governments and their central banks keep their foot flat down on the fiscal and monetary accelerator.

They should be careful what they wish for . . . . . nothing is certain in economics, but central banks may find themselves forced to tighten rather sooner than they anticipate."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/02/02/beware-inflationary-threats-creeping-us-unawares/

Fortunately these days your price is fixed when you make the order. Most tractors have a six month lead time and generally any 5k inflationary price rises are avoided.
Your friendly ford dealer obviously made the mistake of not fixing the price beforehand back in the seventies otherwise he should of made a killing compared to other makes when 1976 came along!

 

[simonk88]

Simon and Tom, How many trailers or chasers to keep it going?

Anything up to 6 trailers here but that would be 10 miles from the store, normally would expect 3/4, much cheaper to have a trailer waiting than the combine. The losses from a stripper header are minimal, its a total step change from a conventional header. We have cut spring barley at 11kph well past midnight with only a 0.25% increase in grain moisture and no change in losses, header or otherwise.

 

[KennyO]

Some of the tinwork on some combines is nowhere near rotting. Old Tx's for example

My old 66 was struggling a bit before I sold it. Poorer paint than the 30 series and too much time sitting out near the coast, with its previous owner.

 

[bankrupt]

Your friendly ford dealer obviously made the mistake of not fixing the price beforehand back in the seventies otherwise he should of made a killing compared to other makes when 1976 came along!

Yes, a 4WD 7000 was £5750 in 1974 (plus £15 for a trailer pipe!) and £8000 odd by 1976.

 

[Tom H]

Simon and Tom, How many trailers or chasers to keep it going?

Depends on distance. We have a 10 year old 28t chaser. then a Unimog and trailer (also move header and brings chaser driver and combine driver home at night (3 seater)) then after that Lorries. Wheat harvest it will be Combine, Chaser, Unimog and Artic lorry. Will add more lorries if needed. The beauty of lorries are we can turn them on and off.

 

[yellow belly]

That all depends how it interacts with the various trade deals we need to get signed.

As @warksfarmer points out the £ is historically relatively weak right now, if it climbs much it could easily take £25-35/t off current wheat prices. Move to a net exporter and you're looking at another £15/t off the price, although ELMS and CS should reduce the chances of that going forward. Add a run off good world harvests into the mix and it could easily look very different quite soon. Or not. Maybe.

agree with some of the above
but is cereals area cropped in the uk falls by 30% the uk will still be a net importer
the level of the £ has a big influence on grain prices

world production will increase with weather but high world prices will increase the area cropped

 

[yellow belly]

my lowest costing machines in the last 40 years have always been ones we bought new and kept for 10 years except 2 tractors bought second hand in the 1990s but kept for 8 years

the key with combines is to do a proper winter check over
getting the dealer fitter to look over a combine for a day is not a proper winter check over

all belts and chains off all bearing checked for rumble check all belt adjusters for wear and lubrication
in my experience all life sealed bearing need carefull inspection and all moving pivot points need checking

 

[Lincsman]

Yes, a 4WD 7000 was £5750 in 1974 (plus £15 for a trailer pipe!) and £8000 odd by 1976.

Was the 7000 available as 4wd, other than roadless? and in 1976 the Q cab was introduced.

 

[jh.]

Nonsense, if ever I heard it.

If you think ELMS is going to deliver as much as you suggest, then you totally misunderstand it's aims.

Doubt it will be half of every farm but Lee does have some less forgiving ground so it might be an option for many hecs imo

 

[bankrupt]

Was the 7000 available as 4wd, other than roadless? and in 1976 the Q cab was introduced.

No - 7000 4WD was Roadless 94t - Q cab was optional in 1974 (£285 extra).

We moved from crawlers to 4WD in 1968 - firstly to IH 614, one of only 5 made.

I was told by the IH European Sales manager at the Royal Show in 1974 that they were giving up 4WD - much too small a market for a big global corporation to bother with.

In view of their subsequent history, this was very much cart before horse, the beginning of the end.

 

[warksfarmer]

That all depends how it interacts with the various trade deals we need to get signed.

As @warksfarmer points out the £ is historically relatively weak right now, if it climbs much it could easily take £25-35/t off current wheat prices. Move to a net exporter and you're looking at another £15/t off the price, although ELMS and CS should reduce the chances of that going forward. Add a run off good world harvests into the mix and it could easily look very different quite soon. Or not. Maybe.

If Trump had stayed in then it would of been bad for U.K. agriculture but good for none ag stuff. However now it’s Biden then U.K. agriculture might be a bit better off so things might not be as drastic as first thought. That said £176/ax for not cropping as I’ve mentioned before. If that option stays in the scheme then it’s going to be hard to refuse it. There’s certainly no point renting anything out for less and a CFA needs to return that to the landowner in order to compete.

 

[warksfarmer]

Prices will come down if need be, but while some tractors are being sold at up to £200K, combines/ other harvesters £500K they wont see much of a problem yet.

Problem is the dealers have offered to high trade in prices so are now sitting on stock they can’t sell. The auction was testament to that. I’m sure a few deals will be done this week which will increase sale numbers but I’d say (haven’t counted) 3/4 of the big stuff didn’t sell. That’s a lot!

 

[Flat 10]

If Trump had stayed in then it would of been bad for U.K. agriculture but good for none ag stuff. However now it’s Biden then U.K. agriculture might be a bit better off so things might not be as drastic as first thought. That said £176/ax for not cropping as I’ve mentioned before. If that option stays in the scheme then it’s going to be hard to refuse it. There’s certainly no point renting anything out for less and a CFA needs to return that to the landowner in order to compete.

That scenario would push rents up?

 

[Farma Parma]

If it's hired, that's not your problem really?
I guess at big acres, hiring becomes attractive - it's certainly an expensive way to cut 600acres, but won't be 10* dearer to cut 6000

funny that but its at about that Level the Combine Seller/Hire folks in the UK said Hiring was poss better way to go.
Neither of them can beat the weather tho, so the only way to run a bigger one on less acres is hire a bigger one.

 

[Johnnyboxer]

I’ve written about this before but we changed from JD to Case because of cost. Now in year 5 and no regrets at all. Nothing to do with reliability or the dealers, just purely on cost. The amount we’ve saved in repayments and finance is staggering quite frankly with each Case unit being approx £20,000 less than the JD equivalent model. Reliability is identical and drivers are happy. When we come to sell the Case’s yes they will sell for less than the JD but they have cost less in the first place and more importantly we are paying less interest to the finance house on Cases compared to Deere’s.

Sounds like a Win-Win
Well done [emoji106]